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Look, first of all I should say that I have no reason to believe that Lee_ is anything but a really nice guy, just trying to get on in life. But be clear of one thing: if you're a long-term investor in MTR, know that his interests and your interests are not aligned.
The last time I recall seeing Lee_ here was in late 2016. Then, like now, he was here like a hyena round a carcass, trying to sow discord and spread disinformation. I remember all the "accounting" advice he kindly gave about illiquid assets.
"Yes," he said "MTR holds share in GGP, LION, etc; and sure they're valued above their purchase price, but they can't easily be sold. They're illiquid assets." (I paraphrase.)
What happened in 2017? First, the SP recovered rapidly and Lee_ disappeared, then MTR sold GGP and LION for huge profits. Just like that. All sold in one go. GGP at 10 times purchase price, LION a multi-bag. They'll probably do the same and sell all of their Thor shares in one go when they judge the time is right.
So what's Lee_'s motive this time? Out of the kindness of his heart, here suddenly to warn investors to get out before it's too late? Yeah, right.
Glad you're all enjoying this. Mostly talking twaddle. One gleefully predicts SP of 1p and says it is because of bad T3 deal; another says SP fell because T3 deal was too good. At least Bonker put research on the table, rather than unsubstantiated nonsense.
Hi parichards In fact the Thor warrant exercise was a big average up. Yes, they bought at a good bit above the current 1.9p earlier in 2018. But the large majority of their Thor purchases were at 0.6p (which have trebled since), which went together with 1.2p warrants, which are also immediately in the money.
Sorry - that should read £60,000 paper profit.
… has had a good day - up 15% or so.
MTR will exercise 7.5 million THR warrants this week, as they expire on Friday. (In 2016 they bought THR at 0.6p, with warrants at 1.2p.) It will cost them £90,000 to exercise them but will give them an immediate paper profit of £52,500 at today's bid price.
Hi Joebop
MTR's warrant holdings were updated on their website yesterday. No menton of EUA. Interstingly they have until next week to exercise 7.5 million in-the-money warrants for THR. See link below.
https://www.metaltigerplc.com/index.php/direct-equities
Casey
That's exactly what did, Impecunious. This price is just too good to miss.
Is there any share you're not predicting a placing for?
Well, one thing is certain: as of this deal completing, MTR now holds 17,090,000 more MOD shares with a current paper value of £3.3 million.
I'd be really interested to see some evidence to back up the assertion that Sprott has lent out its shares. Not least as it's not obviously in their interest to do so. Or in the absence of evidence, rational arguments as to why they would.
They've not so far presented themselves as an outfit determined only to pick up MTR shares on the cheap, since they bought - from memory - the bulk of their shares above the then current SP at about 3p a year ago and then at 2.8p in August; and both times secured warrants that would incentivise them to push the SP up, if there was any way they could - not take action to help bring the SP down.
Hey Juliok
It's obviously just another crap aim mining share. That's why JP Morgan Asset Mgt bought over 8% of this crap company. I imagine they did a bit of due diligence before splashing the cash.
Your posting history suggests you're a holder of ARS, which is surprising given your view today. Why did you buy in the first place?
Cashking
Yes, it was probably closer to 90%. They'll have to fundraise again soo, I guess.
Impossible to say. Lots of variables. Here's just one more:
In 2017 MTR made £5m ish profit from its other investments (GGP and LION), both of which went to cash. So no fundraise for a lot longer after that.
MTR has 77 million THR shares. THR price has gone down a lot since early 2018 (but MTR is still in profit) - hence the book value reduction in the last half-yearly report. If THR SP went up to 6p (not impossible/improbable, but who knows if/when) its £1.15m THR holding would suddenly be worth £5m.
Indeed. I think the plan is generally to undermine the credibility of bulls, and highlight any even slightly negative words in MTR releases - even ridiculous observations such as that operations or investments might cost money.
Cashking
Why are you being so objectionable? Bonker's ballpark estimate seemed pretty reasonable to me. At least he'd gone to the trouble of making an estimate, rather than just sniping from the sidelines with petty comments that are clearly intended to undermine. Presumably you'll keep behaving like this until you again switch to being a bull.
My estimate took some time to read the full MTR report, make some assumptions and do some calculations. As I understand it, Bonker's got a job to do. Having made my own estimate, we're still in the same ballpark as Bonker suggested: MTR with multi million of cash and good prospects of getting a big return from MOD T3 deal..
Casey
Since Cashking probably won't reply, I'll give you a number: £5.295 million.
Here's how (from half-year report):
Cash and cash equivalents: £0.737m
Estimated cash burn since: - £1.642m (based on operating costs of £4.927m in whole year 2017)
Capital raise in August: £6.200m
Total: £5.295m
Hi zapsnap
Thanks for the response. Three points from me that will hopefully help:
- yes the fundraise in late 2016 was at a low price and with low-price warrants too (but done as the market had got MTR by the balls under the previous Chairman)
- since then raises have been at much higher prices (3p and 2.8p, from memory, with warrants at prices well above any SP we've seen). If these warrants are exercised MTR will get loads of extra money and we'll be dancing in the streets, as MTR will have multi-bagged.
- it's also worth remembering how MTR has benefitted from warrants in other companies: e.g. (1) in late 2015, I think, it bought KIBO with warrants then sold, exercised warrants and sold them, making a huge % profit, helping to fund the MOD JV; (2) it bought GGP at 0.1p with warrants at 0.2p, sold the shares last year at many multiples of the buy price, exercised the warrants and sold them at many multiples of the warrant price too - meaning MTR didn't need to raise any money from the market for close to a year.
Any evidence for that assertion?
Market just doesn't make sense most of the time.
Don't know how many of you hold/held or have followed Asiamet Resources. I bought at 1.5p in March 2016. It spiked at 6p in April 2016, then dropped back to under 2p. If memory serves, it stayed there until well into 2017, then went up to 4p. By early 2018 it had gone up to 14p. It's since dropped back to about 10p, where it's stayed more or less for 6 months. I made (for me) lots of money on it. But would have made a shed load more if I'd had the courage of my convictions in 2016-17.
You'd think from the Asiamet SP it had had a series of very good, followed by very bad news, followed by good, very good, stellar, then bad news. But of course none of that happened. It's a copper exploration company that's been steadily building and proving up its copper resources, much as MOD has. No bad news ever (so far); no stellar news either.
The only difference here is that MOD (and by extension MTR) hasn't (yet) had the big spike - at least since March 2016 - that many of us expect. It will very likely come. But we need to be patient while the market behaves irrationally.
Those two big buys or sells are most likely a rollover.