RE: Re: Todays RNS10 Aug 2022 15:29
Fleccy - just got back to my hotel and spotted your post of 18.13 last night.The question of fair value for BT is impossible to answer as it consists of the interplay of a myriad of often conflicting elements, BUT I'll have a go.
BT appears in my folio now and again as part of the defensive, divi earning element which includes other shares such as LGEN,NG,IMPS,MNG, PSN.....all of which I currently hold and have held off and on for years (As I have said I am a buy and hold man but that means to sell when they are over my value estimate and buy when they fall back in , as at some point they all do)
While I have no hard and fast rules, I judge them on divi, P/E , recent earnings momentum, recent SP momentum, my perception of the market generally and any obvious threats/Opportunities they may have.
OK that doesn't offer a formula but I don't believe one exists, a certain amount of logic, coupled with judgment has served me well. I have said elsewhere and maybe here that my strategy has been for many years now to aim for 10% over inflation per annum and have achieved that in all but 3 years of the last twenty odd.
To get back to BT I will watch and wait, for me the short -term momentum is downward, the Drahi thing gave the stock an impetus which seems to have dissipated, fibre rollout will weigh on profitability for some time and I suspect that until the shadow boxing between the other players is resolved by some sort of tie-up and the smoke clears the telecoms sector may tread water. If you want me to pick a number for the SP I really can't. It would clearly be below my sell average which was I the high 180's and below today's SP , would 140 tempt me back? possibly, depending on all the other criteria set out above, below that it would be back towards the territory of my last buys and would definitely appeal. If / when I buy back in I will declare so and may still offer my input here on occasion between now and then. If I miss a rise and you profit then you have my very best wishes!!
Now it's late afternoon in Dubai, the temp is 40+ and the cool, shady air-conditioned bar downstairs is calling me (despite the extortionate prices!!)
GL