The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
A little later than intended but here’s my view on the key investing matters this year and how I'm playing it.
NOTE this Is not investing advice.
So, backdrop this year will see the continued drift down in inflation, though IMV it will level out at somewhere between 2 and 4 % which is historically low when compared to all but the last 10/12 years. It is also clear that central banks in the US, UK and EU will start to lower IR’s towards the 2% target tho’ again IMV will almost certainly not get there this year. In the UK and the US forthcoming elections will encourage governments to introduce policies which benefit consumers and build a “feel good” factor. The UK will see tax reductions, policies to stimulate growth, spending, the leisure industries , housebuilding......The benefits of 10% pay rises will encourage spending on consumer goods, tech , holidays and I may be alone in seeing annual GDP growth in the UK of 1-2%.
On global matters we have two major conflicts affecting the world economy and I doubt that either will be resolved this year , even if they are, the move by major economies to spend on defense is now a given . The munitions provided to Ukraine and used by Israel will be replenished and many countries who have been lulled into a sense of comfort have had their illusions shattered , and will be arming themselves , think Germany and eastern Europe Japan?, Taiwan?
I also expect to see consolidation in media companies , telecoms, building, mining, oilco’s.
The net effect of the above will be for the FTSE to have a better year than for some time and my strategy is based on that .
In the last few months I have bought into or added defense companies BAE and CHG, I hold PSN , I have bought a chunk of AAL,I am holding JET2 and CCL for the recovery of the travel industry to 2019 levels and beyond, I am buying RKB which has fallen unduly IMV. I have bought DGE and RTO both of which I expect to recover from sharp falls, I hold LGEN and MNG as prospects in the insurance industry have improved sharply now that they can lock in earnings on Gilts and High Grade paper.(that is lending to companies). I hold both BT and VOD In expectation of consolidation in telecoms and an easier regulatory environment. I am buying GLEN as the demand for metals will grow.
That’s it for now, a reminder this is one man’s view I may be wrong (it will happen sometime!!) one other point is that in recent years I have taken the emotions out of my investing by setting limit transactions when my holdings or my buy targets reach predetermined levels . It has cost me some money in selling “ too soon” but it has proven to be on the whole a better method than my previous attempts to judge tops and bottoms. I am going to be out of close contact with the markets for some time from next week so wish you all a prosperous new year of investing.
A little later than intended but here’s my view on the key investing matters this year and how I'm playing it.
NOTE this Is not investing advice.
So, backdrop this year will see the continued drift down in inflation, though IMV it will level out at somewhere between 2 and 4 % which is historically low when compared to all but the last 10/12 years. It is also clear that central banks in the US, UK and EU will start to lower IR’s towards the 2% target tho’ again IMV will almost certainly not get there this year. In the UK and the US forthcoming elections will encourage governments to introduce policies which benefit consumers and build a “feel good” factor. The UK will see tax reductions, policies to stimulate growth, spending, the leisure industries , housebuilding......The benefits of 10% pay rises will encourage spending on consumer goods, tech , holidays and I may be alone in seeing annual GDP growth in the UK of 1-2%.
On global matters we have two major conflicts affecting the world economy and I doubt that either will be resolved this year , even if they are, the move by major economies to spend on defense is now a given . The munitions provided to Ukraine and used by Israel will be replenished and many countries who have been lulled into a sense of comfort have had their illusions shattered , and will be arming themselves , think Germany and eastern Europe Japan?, Taiwan?
I also expect to see consolidation in media companies , telecoms, building, mining, oilco’s.
The net effect of the above will be for the FTSE to have a better year than for some time and my strategy is based on that .
In the last few months I have bought into or added defense companies BAE and CHG, I hold PSN , I have bought a chunk of AAL,I am holding JET2 and CCL for the recovery of the travel industry to 2019 levels and beyond, I am buying RKB which has fallen unduly IMV. I have bought DGE and RTO both of which I expect to recover from sharp falls, I hold LGEN and MNG as prospects in the insurance industry have improved sharply now that they can lock in earnings on Gilts and High Grade paper.(that is lending to companies). I hold both BT and VOD In expectation of consolidation in telecoms and an easier regulatory environment. I am buying GLEN as the demand for metals will grow.
That’s it for now, a reminder this is one man’s view I may be wrong (it will happen sometime!!) one other point is that in recent years I have taken the emotions out of my investing by setting limit transactions when my holdings or my buy targets reach predetermined levels . It has cost me some money in selling “ too soon” but it has proven to be on the whole a better method than my previous attempts to judge tops and bottoms. I am going to be out of close contact with the markets for some time from next week so wish you all a prosperous new year of investing.
A little later than intended but here’s my view on the key investing matters this year and how I'm playing it.
NOTE this Is not investing advice.
So, backdrop this year will see the continued drift down in inflation, though IMV it will level out at somewhere between 2 and 4 % which is historically low when compared to all but the last 10/12 years. It is also clear that central banks in the US, UK and EU will start to lower IR’s towards the 2% target tho’ again IMV will almost certainly not get there this year. In the UK and the US forthcoming elections will encourage governments to introduce policies which benefit consumers and build a “feel good” factor. The UK will see tax reductions, policies to stimulate growth, spending, the leisure industries , housebuilding......The benefits of 10% pay rises will encourage spending on consumer goods, tech , holidays and I may be alone in seeing annual GDP growth in the UK of 1-2%.
On global matters we have two major conflicts affecting the world economy and I doubt that either will be resolved this year , even if they are, the move by major economies to spend on defense is now a given . The munitions provided to Ukraine and used by Israel will be replenished and many countries who have been lulled into a sense of comfort have had their illusions shattered , and will be arming themselves , think Germany and eastern Europe Japan?, Taiwan?
I also expect to see consolidation in media companies , telecoms, building, mining, oilco’s.
The net effect of the above will be for the FTSE to have a better year than for some time and my strategy is based on that .
In the last few months I have bought into or added defense companies BAE and CHG, I hold PSN , I have bought a chunk of AAL,I am holding JET2 and CCL for the recovery of the travel industry to 2019 levels and beyond, I am buying RKB which has fallen unduly IMV. I have bought DGE and RTO both of which I expect to recover from sharp falls, I hold LGEN and MNG as prospects in the insurance industry have improved sharply now that they can lock in earnings on Gilts and High Grade paper.(that is lending to companies). I hold both BT and VOD In expectation of consolidation in telecoms and an easier regulatory environment. I am buying GLEN as the demand for metals will grow.
That’s it for now, a reminder this is one man’s view I may be wrong (it will happen sometime!!) one other point is that in recent years I have taken the emotions out of my investing by setting limit transactions when my holdings or my buy targets reach predetermined levels . It has cost me some money in selling “ too soon” but it has proven to be on the whole a better method than my previous attempts to judge tops and bottoms. I am going to be out of close contact with the markets for some time from next week so wish you all a prosperous new year of investing.
I’ve been thinking about how to present my review of 2023 and decided I’m going to bore you with the reasons for my successes ‘cos , while they don’t help anyone make a success of investing last year, the logic might help for this year. So, what I’m doing is to summarise my view of last year and a few decisions I made which paid off.
In retrospect, my big winners from last year, MKS, RR, SGE which I have now sold benefited from buys/adds late in 2022 and early in 2023, the logic was easy to see.
RR had been decimated by covid and the massive fall in aero engine flying hours which forms the main stable revenue and profit stream for the company .It was also still suffering from the severe impact of the rights issue in NOV 2020. That covid had almost gone and engine flying hours would increase was not hard to see. That tourism would recover was and remains an obvious bet. I also hold Jet2 (up25%)and CCL(up 60%).
MKS was under new and apparently competent management and like all retailers was bound to show growth after almost two years of COVID, lockdowns , and slow wage growth…..most major retailers did well, Sainsburys up almost 40% , next also 40%,TSCO (which I also hold )30% and again that people would spend more after two austere years was predictable.
SGE is the FTSE’s only significant “tech Stock “ although a minnow by US standards it benefitted from a sensible management pivot to “cloud-based services”. It was therefore the only FTSE stock that those trying to ride the tech wave could buy.
So the key drivers of SP rises were the end of Covid, the improvement in most people's incomes as pay rises of 10% landed in bank accounts, the recovery in the holiday industry, and the desire for “tech stocks” , much more in the US where I Hold almost all of the big 7 directly and the US market via ETF’s or funds.
The other big winning sector was “construction “where several of the builders rose by between 20 and 50%, my choice PSN, was a laggard , though I will hold because I see a lot further to go in that sector. The extent of this year's rise has surprised me , though I think it’s based on optimism for a return to growth which has yet to happen.
I will post again before the markets reopen with my summary of opinions and “guesses” for this year. Happy and prosperous New Year to you all.
I’ve been thinking about how to present my review of 2023 and decided I’m going to bore you with the reasons for my successes ‘cos , while they don’t help anyone make a success of investing last year, the logic might help for this year. So, what I’m doing is to summarise my view of last year and a few decisions I made which paid off.
In retrospect, my big winners from last year, MKS, RR, SGE which I have now sold benefited from buys/adds late in 2022 and early in 2023, the logic was easy to see.
RR had been decimated by covid and the massive fall in aero engine flying hours which forms the main stable revenue and profit stream for the company .It was also still suffering from the severe impact of the rights issue in NOV 2020. That covid had almost gone and engine flying hours would increase was not hard to see. That tourism would recover was and remains an obvious bet. I also hold Jet2 (up25%)and CCL(up 60%).
MKS was under new and apparently competent management and like all retailers was bound to show growth after almost two years of COVID, lockdowns , and slow wage growth…..most major retailers did well, Sainsburys up almost 40% , next also 40%,TSCO (which I also hold )30% and again that people would spend more after two austere years was predictable.
SGE is the FTSE’s only significant “tech Stock “ although a minnow by US standards it benefitted from a sensible management pivot to “cloud-based services”. It was therefore the only FTSE stock that those trying to ride the tech wave could buy.
So the key drivers of SP rises were the end of Covid, the improvement in most people's incomes as pay rises of 10% landed in bank accounts, the recovery in the holiday industry, and the desire for “tech stocks” , much more in the US where I Hold almost all of the big 7 directly and the US market via ETF’s or funds.
The other big winning sector was “construction “where several of the builders rose by between 20 and 50%, my choice PSN, was a laggard , though I will hold because I see a lot further to go in that sector. The extent of this year's rise has surprised me , though I think it’s based on optimism for a return to growth which has yet to happen.
I will post again before the markets reopen with my summary of opinions and “guesses” for this year. Happy and prosperous New Year to you all.
I’ve been thinking about how to present my review of 2023 and decided I’m going to bore you with the reasons for my successes ‘cos , while they don’t help anyone make a success of investing last year, the logic might help for this year. So, what I’m doing is to summarise my view of last year and a few decisions I made which paid off.
In retrospect, my big winners from last year, MKS, RR, SGE which I have now sold benefited from buys/adds late in 2022 and early in 2023, the logic was easy to see.
RR had been decimated by covid and the massive fall in aero engine flying hours which forms the main stable revenue and profit stream for the company .It was also still suffering from the severe impact of the rights issue in NOV 2020. That covid had almost gone and engine flying hours would increase was not hard to see. That tourism would recover was and remains an obvious bet. I also hold Jet2 (up25%)and CCL(up 60%).
MKS was under new and apparently competent management and like all retailers was bound to show growth after almost two years of COVID, lockdowns , and slow wage growth…..most major retailers did well, Sainsburys up almost 40% , next also 40%,TSCO (which I also hold )30% and again that people would spend more after two austere years was predictable.
SGE is the FTSE’s only significant “tech Stock “ although a minnow by US standards it benefitted from a sensible management pivot to “cloud-based services”. It was therefore the only FTSE stock that those trying to ride the tech wave could buy.
So the key drivers of SP rises were the end of Covid, the improvement in most people's incomes as pay rises of 10% landed in bank accounts, the recovery in the holiday industry, and the desire for “tech stocks” , much more in the US where I Hold almost all of the big 7 directly and the US market via ETF’s or funds.
The other big winning sector was “construction “where several of the builders rose by between 20 and 50%, my choice PSN, was a laggard , though I will hold because I see a lot further to go in that sector. The extent of this year's rise has surprised me , though I think it’s based on optimism for a return to growth which has yet to happen.
I will post again before the markets reopen with my summary of opinions and “guesses” for this year. Happy and prosperous New Year to you all.
Hi Gio my mistake , I copied a post from the LLOY board to several others and forgot to amend it. I do hold here, though it is probably my most high risk play, at an average of around 550 , looking for an SP of 800+ before I consider cashing out(again).While OCDO is IMV a medium to long-term winner, its volatility has served me well in making profits as it oscillates between 4/500pand 800/1000p.
Crossley .. I agree the HB's WILL recover, whether this coming year or next, also generally comfortable with insurers (BUT NOT banks).Again, the travel sector is primed for better things, with airlines it's Jet2 for me(hold at just below 1000p, CCL(been buying since 600p) for the US cruise market .......despite the regular grumbles around these boards, discipline and common sense provide the opportunity for sensible, low-risk profits.
All the best for next year, I will be posting a bit in the next ten days then off to warmer climes 'till March.
Robleo , if that's in reference to me , feel free to read my posting history, which accurately reflects the facts I set out in my previous post . By the way, nothing I say is intended as advice, I was asked by Crossley how my strategy had performed, I responded with specifics.
Hi Crossley I'v had an excellent year, holding and selling three of the FTSE 100 top five, in RR up180% at sell(though still clearly too early), MKS (up 100%) and SGE (up 60%), that together with positive returns for all the rest of my holdings except for VOD(-20%)and DGE (recent purchase -flat)means I'm showing ~35% up for the year.
I tend to buy with the intention of holding for a long period, but of late I have taken to collecting profits rather than running winner forever. I've been investing for thirty years now and this year is up with the top three or four in that time.
I've got more work to do on my plans for the coming year but a key element of my strategy is to buy sound companies whose SP is, IMV, unreasonably depressed, either due to external factors , short-term issues or overly negative sentiment, to that end I hold AAL, DGE, RTO, CCL, BAE and PSN among my major new " bets" for next year. I don't do AIM stocks (with very few exceptions) and I hold a number of funds , ETF's prefs and bonds.
To preempt those who will say "rubbish " almost all of my positions, entries and exits are shown in my posting history, pretty much at the time I transact, anyone with the patience to scan my posting history can verify that..
I will follow this post up here and on a few other boards in the next few days.
Until then have a good new year all.
At this time of year, I review my investments for the year now nearly over and my investing plans for the forthcoming year. I don't know how many others do, but if you don't you should. we can all learn from our mistakes and try to make ourselves more effective investors. While I'm not invested here, currently it sits on my watch list like almost all of the FTSE 100. I intend to post my thoughts on this and a few other boards in the next few days and would welcome others doing the same.
At this time of year, I review my investments for the year now nearly over and my investing plans for the forthcoming year. I don't know how many others do, but if you don't you should. we can all learn from our mistakes and try to make ourselves more effective investors. While I'm not invested here, currently it sits on my watch list like almost all of the FTSE 100. I intend to post my thoughts on this and a few other boards in the next few days and would welcome others doing the same.
At this time of year, I review my investments for the year now nearly over and my investing plans for the forthcoming year. I don't know how many others do, but if you don't you should. we can all learn from our mistakes and try to make ourselves more effective investors. While I'm not invested here, currently it sits on my watch list like almost all of the FTSE 100. I intend to post my thoughts on this and a few other boards in the next few days and would welcome others doing the same.
At this time of year, I review my investments for the year now nearly over and my investing plans for the forthcoming year. I don't know how many others do, but if you don't you should. we can all learn from our mistakes and try to make ourselves more effective investors. While I'm not invested here, currently it sits on my watch list like almost all of the FTSE 100. I intend to post my thoughts on this and a few other boards in the next few days and would welcome others doing the same.
At this time of year, I review my investments for the year now nearly over and my investing plans for the forthcoming year. I don't know how many others do, but if you don't you should. we can all learn from our mistakes and try to make ourselves more effective investors. While I'm not invested here, currently it sits on my watch list like almost all of the FTSE 100. I intend to post my thoughts on this and a few other boards in the next few days and would welcome others doing the same.
Asp. The trouble is that LLOY has remained a bargain buy for 7 years. It's hard to see what change of circumstance will change that. It was a bargain in 2020 and maybe again , but at the mo. of the profits of £5.6 bn, £2bn are retained and the rest is used for a divi of 2.4p and a share buyback which has reduced the shares in issue by 10% over five years. That isn't going to set the world or the SP alight.
Asperger, a great bit of research which tells us almost completely why LLOY SP has gone nowhere (except down) in the period under review.
Your figures show that the shares in issues over the period 2007 to date have multiplied by TWELVE TIMES , thus the market cap currently £30 billion is shared between 12X as many shares . If the shares in issue had remained the same as in 2007, each share would be worth 48pX12 =576p.
ALL of LLOY'S growth for 16 years (profits in 2007 £3.9 bn , profits in 2022 £5.6 bn)is dwarfed by the much greater growth in shares in issue. A large part of that is down to the rescue rights issues in 2009, when it became clear that the T/O of HBOS had turned out to be a disaster. Still, at present rates of share buybacks, it'll only take another 17 years to get back to the glory days of 2007 and an SP of nearly 300p!!
HI OR trust you are well.
AAL's decision to look at selling a stake in Woodsmith fits with their recent moves to trim capex generally. From their latest RNS see
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/AAL/anglo-american-performance-update/16243722
The figures show an expected capex (even after reductions)of $22bn over the next four years which is approx twice their likely profit for the period, so some sort of compromise was clearly necessary. A total divestment of some assets or a buy-in and Woodsmith, with still significant development costs(latest est. $9 Bill., over three times the last SXX est.!!)is an obvious candidate . As you say, it is a sacrifice of profits expected over many years of the mine's production but maybe needs must?