Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
What you say regarding director share purchases seems logical. I hope your theory is correct. But I wouldn't rely on that. PJ may have some further propositions for them personally in terms of the future (following any takeover by him) which would guarantee they make up the difference (and more) if they accept a price below their average buy. What I personally hope is that PJ makes the mandatory offer of 0.525p which is rejected and over the next one/two years this company starts making serious profits from their contracts (and stops chucking money away in exceptional costs). Then ALL investors will benefit with a very much higher than today's SP... ah but we live and dream.
At the moment I am not really sure Jones is serious about taking over in the near future. He may just have taken the opportunity to get the L&G shares because they needed to sell, and due to the rules he is obliged to make the mandatory offer. If he does offer anything at all above the mandatory price or today's SP that implies that market has undervalued the stock (but PJ knows better). If that is the case how undervalued is the stock? As soon as he appears to be willing to pay more than the trashed SP the last two years' performance becomes more suspicious. And if the offer is 1.2p we should really reject it because it is obviously way undervalued by the market and PJ's first offer will obviously be less than he is eventually willing to pay (from what he knows about future profitibility). I expect , however, that he will keep with the mandatory offer or close to it, about 0.6p If it is rejected he will wait sit on his shares and accumulate at the most opportune time. The deck is completely stacked in his favour......
Hi Deathlehem. Yes but where does the £6.1m come from? I only saw that in media quotes which misquoted the RNS and didn't really say what extra he has to actually fork out. They just worked out the MC from the shares in issue and the offer price. At 0.525p I make it that he would pay out an extra £2.86m (not £6m). RNS: "the requirement for him to make a mandatory offer for the entire issued and to be issued share capital of EXPANSYS (other than those EXPANSYS Shares already owned by him)." The bit in parentheses implies to me that he doesn't pay for the shares he already owns (and why should he?) and also in the same RNS: "Following his recent purchase of EXPANSYS Shares, which has triggered the Mandatory Offer, it is understood that Peter Jones and parties acting in concert with him are interested in aggregate in 53.14 per cent. of the issued share capital of EXPANSYS." To me that means he owns (with his pal) 53% and needs to pay his offer price for the remaining 47%. 0.47 x 1162m x £0.0022 = £12m. Not certain but it makes sense to me since of course he has already invested more than that in his existing shares at a higher sp. He is still quids in on the whole thing though after his PJ Media sale.
I don't know why it jumped on Fri 3rd Jan but I sold when bid hit £1.09 because it was close to the major resistance level. I guess others did also so the SP has dropped just due to trading. Once it finds a good support level (maybe this is it) it will probably go back up.
Hi. XPS live RNS link for the RNS's. I am not an expert so don't rely on this but.... I believe the 8.5 declarations are from the exempt principal trader. A principal trader is an MM registered to trade the stock (to whom we buy and sell our shares). The buy and sells are the number of shares they traded and the prices (presumably during the offer period up to now). If the number of shares bought is greater than those sold it means the MM still has a long position (ideally for them the share numbers would be equal). The difference in buy sell price is the MM/trader profit. I gather because they are a trader they are exempt from the rules regarding the takeover i.e, they are not eligible to get the offer price for any shares they still have in the course of trading. The last RNS is a declaration from the directors of their positions on the stock, I guess this is necessary according to the rules so that everyone can see how any recommendation they make affects them. Anyone know for sure or have different ideas?
A disclosure of shareholding must be made when: On holding, or ceasing to hold, 3% of a UK target's voting rights and on reaching, exceeding or falling below each 1% increment above that 3%; and during an offer period, following any dealing in relevant securities of a party to the offer (other than a cash bidder) by a bidder, target company and their concert parties. So if PJ buys more increasing his holding by 1% it must be declared and he has to make a new offer again at the highest purchase in the last 12 months. That implies that if he buys more now the offer for all remaining shares increases. If he really intends to build to 75% in the near future, I would imagine the SP will rise as he buys and we will get increasing offers. I suspect, however that PJ will just sit on his existing holding and see how the company performs and where the SP goes from here. If it falls back to 0.525p I expect he will add. For existing PI shareholders, what we need is this company to start realizing profits from its contracts and stop throwing away cash!
biglad. Well my recent guesswork has been from a cynical point of view especially with the spin of media reports that PJ wants to takeover the company and the recent exceptional costs etc. But recent selling/buying activity may just have come about because L&G have other immediate plans so they wanted to sell their XPS shares. I was looking on L&G site but nothing obvious there. Watch out for L&G news over coming weeks..might give a clue. Anyway, by selling to PJ and it seems now effectively most of the rest to Medical Debenture, L&G didn't need to sell on the open market with a drag on the SP. Only a theory, but in any case the price paid by MD points to Dcdan's conclusion that the 0.525p offer is pretty unlikely to be recommended by the board.... Once PJ agreed to buy the shares he was obliged by the rules to make the offer. When/if rejected he may do nothing for the time being.
Dcdan. That makes sense and I hope you are correct. Not sure, but I presume they can all agree on a new offer price (since the 0.525p is just the initial mandatory offer) that suits all and takes trading/reports etc. into account. Then when agreed recommend that.
I don't think PJ needs to buy more at the moment. He can wait for the board to recommend we accept the 0.525p offer. I hope they reject it, I'm not so sure now. But if the mandatory offer is not accepted then, and if he wants to take over, he needs to buy more, new offer.....and so on. Oh dear, looking to see if I can get my money back somewhere else....added SNRP to my list.....I hope that birdie is more reliable than XPS.
In these reports it keeps saying it will cost him £6m but the actual requirement is: for him to make a mandatory offer for the entire issued and to be issued share capital of EXPANSYS (other than those EXPANSYS Shares already owned by him (the "Mandatory Offer"). Since he only needs to pay for 47% (already owning 53%) it will only cost him additionally £2.86m, if the offer at 0.525p/share goes through, for him to then own the company outright.