Revenue - Thoughts welcome4 Oct 2023 10:21
Hi all - Looking to get some thoughts on the below.
Core brands dropped 10% and accounted for 8ppts of the 17ppts total revenue decline. By my calculations that means:
H1 23: £720m. H2 23: £648m. £72m / 10% decline
I’ve then assumed that all Debenhams marketplace revenue has been stripped out as is now commission. This might be wrong but it’s quite immaterial anyway. Contributes 2ppts to 17ppt total revenue decline so call it:
H1 23: £18m. H1 24: £0m. £18m / 100% revenue decline
Which leaves non-core brands. 7ppts of 17ppt total revenue decline. £63m revenue decline left, so:
H1 23: £144m. H1 24: £81m. £63m / 44% decline.
I don’t have the split by core and non-core for 23 and 24 but have back-worked the calcs based upon what info was shared yday.
Now this gives me a bit more hope on the basis of, is the strategy that:
- non-core is unprofitable and they haven’t been able to transition to profitable yet
- so with profit and margins now the focus, they’ve allowed for such a big decline, ie cuts to marketing and priced for profit only
- there isn’t a great deal left to chip away at in non-core…
- 10% decline in core brands I would probably take - like the cfo said yesterday, it’s not too far off where the market is right now.
Like I said, thoughts welcome