Member Info for carefree01

Agreed Yesimabeliever. I think a lot of us underestimate just how bad the macro environment has been. Some stats this morning I’ve nicked from Twitter:

💥 GDP per person dropped every quarter of 2023. It hasn't grown since Q1 2022

💥 That's 7 quarters - longest unbroken run without per capita GDP growth since records began in 1955

Likewise I’m backing Matt. I think he’ll pull it out of the bag in the end.

Ingenuity valued at significantly above the current share price by Apollo. 12x revenue quoted re Symbotic - such a multiple for ingenuity’s EXTERNAL revenue only would also provide a valuation higher than current mcap. Then you add in the nutrition and beauty revenue for ingenuity.

Clearly there’s a lot of talk about capital events etc - one way or another value will realise itself. But I think the company will return to strong growth as the economy eases. And then ingenuity is the real golden ticket that could provide life changing returns. See the size of the market that the article mentioned.

Let’s hope some more GMV lands next few months

This was shared on the telegram group:

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/07/a-big-ai-and-robotics-idea-that-has-attracted-walmart-and-softbank.html

So Symbotic has the software.

They then set up a JV with SoftBank (65% owner of JV) called Greenbox with $100m capital. Greenbox then sells the warehouse and systems offerings as a service.

Interesting SoftBank are so keen in this space. They also own 8% of Symbotic.

Symbotic has a mcap of $26bn, see comment below from the press:

“Symbotic's stock still doesn't look cheap at 12 times 2024's projected sales and more than 200 times its adjusted EBITDA.”

Fair point dpws. Not “extremely unlikely” like i said originally, but the optics still don’t look great selling a year ago at almost half the price.

Maybe they want to revisit the ingenuity deal??

I think it is extremely unlikely to be anything to do with SoftBank (if it is anything at all), but I did note yesterday that their share price has had quite a recovery since the liquidity struggles they had late 2022.

Air freight prices down nicely in January

https://www.aircargonews.net/data-hub/airfreight-rates-tac-index/

As I mentioned before, I’m not sure share buybacks are possible.

My understanding is you need distributable reserves, which THG doesn’t have given its losses. So therefore it would need to reduce capital, which requires board and shareholder approval, but most importantly might require creditor approval. The loan documentation might prevent a share buyback, or alternatively the banks may object if credit approval required.

Might be wrong on all of this - if possible I’d definitely like to see a share buyback though in order to underwrite the SP.

Didn’t fancy showing or linking John Lyttle’s response Spidey? Here it is for everyone.

https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/43042/documents/214058/default/

A good response. Taking action and very clear.

Now spidey - will you admit you are Scott?

Spidey and Scott are the same person aren’t they… joined the site at roughly the same time, always pop their heads up together.

Find a share you like and invest in it, rather than spending your time moaning about boohoo at every opportunity whilst it seems you don’t actually have any real money tied up here

Hexam - Q1 2022 (and Q2 a bit) we still saw covid impacts. As SCB says, the quarterly chart is clear - the uptrend has certainly been reestablished. See Q4 23 (28.3%) vs PY (27.6%) for example

Can they definitely do buy-backs?

Is there not a distributable reserves restriction or is this for cancelling the bought back shares?

And is the loan likely to have restrictions also?

Frasers increase by 4%!

If today is Frasers again, how are they accumulating without moving the price up?

Is there a seller? No notifications for those above 3%. If those below the 3% threshold were selling, surely they must be out now given Frasers’ holding.

Is there a lack of shares free for Frasers to hoover up now?

Is Frasers taking out options on Asos because again there are a lack of shares available over there?

The market works in funny ways / often seems fixed - but things don’t seem to add up.

Anyone with thoughts? Interesting to see (if) the TR1 appear next couple of days.

On top of that PokerChips, 10 out of the last 11 months’ payroll have been revised lower

Hi CPI …

October revised down 45K from 150K to 105K

November revised down 26K from 199K to 173K

Dodgy Biden fiddling the numbers for election year

Is a weird one mate - my free trial ended but I still seem to have some extra access… not sure how!

Think if you sign up for the free trial for Pro you should be able to see December

Incorrect - the numbers I’ve quoted also include mobile web traffic. Does exclude app traffic, but should still be a useful indication when benchmarking performance to market (particularly co’s like Asos and Shein) and potential standout performers like debenhams

Similar web

Website viewing figures for December are in.

Debenhams 14.8m - up 13% vs November (after a 64% rise in November).

Boohoo with Debenhams flat to November. Excluding Debs is 5% down.

By comparison, asos down 7%, Zara down 5%, Shein.co.uk down 21%, shein.com down 18%, next 26% up, shopcider down 15%

Q4 we’re 9% up on Q3 (excl debs 1% down), whereas asos up only 1%, Shein 15% down, next 14% up, shopcider 3% up

Haha there he goes, digging through old messages. Part of a Telegram group re Boo now but thanks for your concern.

Re your previous comment, yes for sure Boo could have acted differently and the share price might be different as a result. But we aren’t alone and the situation definitely has not been caused “ALL” by boo management.

Now, you’re sounding a bit desperate fella… Time to step away from the phone.

Bon - why are you confused? You said that “the company has caused this situation all by itself”.

Knowbody correctly pointed out how ridiculous this statement is - external factors like the Ukraine war and inflation were certainly not caused by the company.

Would you like to retract your statement that boohoo’s current predicament has been caused “all by itself”?