Member Info for Carcosa61

According to the house broker Arden's note today they estimate...

"...£3-4k per claim to Anexo, or £39-52mn in total. This would result in an estimated £20-25mn to the business pre-tax after £4mn of admin (largely marketing) costs and repaying litigation funding."

So the legal costs appear to make up an awful lot of the award.

I would have thought the broker note was a little bit crazy with their estimate but considering this is Arden's house broker then it must be close to the final estimated figure.

See Arden's website for full report

Oh well, have to wait a bit longer then....

RNS:
"Anexo is involved in a separate class action which covers a second, although not subordinate tranche of claims against VW on similar grounds"

I refer you to http://bondturner.com/services/diesel-emissions-claims/vw-emissions/ "How much will it cost me to claim"..."You should however still receive 50%".

Implies Anexo/Bond Turner gets 50%

Another article today from SeekingAlpha:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4500699-lithium-americas-to-benefit-from-growing-resource-nationalism

Seems a bit ridiculous to me that anything like this can be held up for a bunch of alcohol fueled hippie tribes living in the 19th century with minimal income, huge unemployment, no future and giving up on significantly higher education, standard of living and, you know, a real life future. https://www.oregonlive.com/environment/2022/04/proposed-lithium-mine-near-oregon-nevada-border-stirs-concerns-among-tribes.html

PB, you may find this later article of interest:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4498947-lithium-americas-thacker-pass-is-just-the-beginning

I live in S.E. Asia. I have never seen an EV car. I saw a hybrid last year, though....

" what am I missing?" That's what have been asking myself for days now!
some discount for the APT/TSL deal not completing
some discount for the Bank of Spain not playing along
some discount for the Block/APT deal not completing
some discount for TSL illiquidity
some discount for the time value
some discount for not knowing 'precisely' what TSL will do post receipt of Block shares (Yes, I know they have said they will return excess cash to shareholders but we don't know how much that will be and when)
But now standing at 40% discount to potential NAV seems somewhat excessive...

The NED resignation is from Clearpay, not TSL
'They'.. TSL (?) have never owned a single share of AfterPay so they never had any opportunity to sell anything since they never owned a share.
'...why sell afterpay holding so quickly'. I think you mean ClearPay. Because they had little choice, The Put/Call option was not that far away and a change in ownership of AfterPay opened the door to an immediate sale. The deal is sweeter now that the ESOP shares are being fulfilled by further AfterPay shares. If you did mean AfterPay shares, well TSL have yet to receive them; but they have already inferred they will await receipt of the subsequent Block shares
TSL have already indicated under what broad criteria the they will sell the Block shares. (See the original RNS deal announcement)

"But the APT share price is now back to where it was (1% above) pre Square/Block offer"

Share Price: 21 July 2021 / 10 Dec 2021
Square: $247 /$181 -26.7%
AfterPay: AUD 126 / AUD 96 -24.0%

In comparison other BNPL company share prices have decline ~30%

Of no consequence for share holders. Just a realignment following the capital reduction.

Although from the figures you can work out the conversion rate of 1.8332p/share for the capital and dividend payment which should start hitting your accounts from today, if you were eligible.

Practically speaking the suspension will most likely be lifted if the reverse takeover is cancelled or the AIM admission document is published. Assuming everyone is wanting the takeover to complete = ad recent news is inferring things are moving in that direction - then I would guess we could be looking at mid to late 2022 given the complexities involved.

The next issue is potential delisting of the shares; normally a six month suspension would result in delisting. However I believe that COVID related matters allows AIM to extend for 12 months; and I would expect there would be some discretion given anyway. should the shares be delisted then one option would be to list on another exchange temporarily to allow some form of trading; or simply go private. Then it gets messy for shareholders.

FWIW (probably not much) here is a link to my valuation spreadsheet along with some commentary:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CZ5EUBUUQscZjiMWDaScM8E5e2mcB3q3ejo2mcF6jWo/edit?usp=sharing

Feel free to copy and use for your own purposes. and/or post your own thoughts

I believe it went ex dividend yesterday (Thursday). Today is the record date. 5.2492p/share.

Historically I think there was an impression that the value of the the call/put options equated with the value Afterpay put on the value of ClearPay. This was erroneous. If you applied the Black-Scholes Model to those options then it aligned reasonably well with ThinkSmarts valuation of Clearpay's 10% holding.

Clearly, at least to me, the arguments surround how much is Clearpay worth? A reasonable person may think it related to the overall turnover, or profit, or some other metric that contributes to Afterpay's business. Looking at Afterpays presentations I would think 10% of the valuation of Afterpay is the result of Clearpay is a good base line. That works out to 134p/share in my calcs but at the end of the day its based on historic numbers.

In the Booklet there is reference to independent derived valuations should the parties not come to a common agreement; but then that, to me, just provides more pressure on AfterPay to sort it out asap. Thinksmart might be quite happy to let things slide/delay as in all probability the value of Clearpay increases with time...

Re 'Afterpay Shares that may be issued or exchanged for the remaining Clearpay shares held by ThinkSmart as a result of its exercise of the put option is capped at 5% '
- That equates to GBP 923m so it's not going to affect the ability of Afterpay to 'fully' pay for ClearPay's 10%

WRT Simon Thompson's IC article it seems apparent (at least he did not directly mention it) that he has not read the Booklet where, amongst a myriad of other things they clearly infer they intend to buyout ClearPay's remaining stake early.

Square/Afterpay's/ThinkSmart's intentions and timings etc can be found in the AfterPay Scheme Booklet https://afterpay-corporate.yourcreative.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Afterpay-Scheme-Booklet.pdf

Use the Black–Scholes model to see the difference

If anyone actually read the source then you would find it's selective reporting going on by Sky News. Real story here: https://libertyshared.org/apparel-industry It is against ALL of Leicester garment companies (with 2 exceptions) Plus US Border tends to ban big political stuff like cotton produced in parts of China relating to China/Uighur Muslims. Also see https://www.ft.com/content/7f7a4084-fc08-47a0-87c5-9206a19041ee

There is zero chance of US banning imports (even if they did then BOO would probably be the one exception to continue being allowed to Import!) Politically unacceptable to ban an entire industry between two major nations.

(Posted by someuwin from the other site)

Liberum...
"Sylvania have declared a one-off windfall dividend of c.5.2 cents per share, 27% above our estimate of 4.1 cents. We expect a final dividend at the full year results of 4 cents, giving a combined yield of 6.4% in 2021. Sitting with $67m of cash and generating $155m of FCF at spot prices (35% FCF yield), with no major capex commitments, dividends look set to rise materially going forward. Basket prices hit a new record high today of c. R65,000/oz, and whilst this would normally make some investor nervous, we believe that the fundamentals for rhodium are solid on a three year view (see here). Top pick in mining."

"If" PGM prices are maintained at around current levels for the next few months then a further special dividend can be reasonably expected next year. Except next year 'could' be a full years production so it would not be unreasonable to expect 4p or more.

Had the GBP/USD not been on a huge run of late then we could have had 4p+ this year...