Member Info for Carcosa61

I note the 'small print' in the accounts i.e.

"This valuation ... including a discount of 20% to be applied for minority holding and the lack of marketability of Clearpay as a privately owned company...

Reducing the discount for lack of marketability to 10% would increase the fair value by £6.7m; increasing the discount for lack of marketability to 30% would reduce the fair value by £6.7m.

...the Group has further discounted the valuation by 35% to determine the accounting fair value of its retained shareholding in Clearpay to be £53.733m at 30 June 2020."

For a business which is rapidly growing (leading to the idea from Simon Thompson that it is sensible for AfterPay to acquire ThinkSmart’s minority interest early) do not the discounts appear somewhat excessive? Or am I looking at this with rose tinted glasses?

(am aware of the "up to 3.5%" share capital of Clearpay being applied to the ESOP)

Afterpay share price has increased a further 21% since that NAV was calculated.

SLP have responded to many posts on this forum and others in Page 5-10 of the annual report issued today:

Https://www.sylvaniaplatinum.com/component/jdownloads/send/75-2020/487-2020-annual-report

You may want to identify yourselves!

Wrong. Oceanwood have been invested for a long time starting as far back as 2011.
They have in fact been recent net sellers, selling 3% of their holding since last September.
Oceanwood have never held 28% of the shares in their history. So either your data source is wrong or you are just trying to spread false rumours.

Oceanwoods latest declared position is 15,224,539 shares, representing 24.27% of the shares in issue.

http://www.charltonillingworth.co.uk/index.php/about/blog/

Acquisition: Acquires VCT fund management business NVM for up to £25m, £16.6m up from 75% in cash, 25% in shares. That is up to 9% of the £270m AUM, 3.5X revenue and 6.25X EBITDA. The company is raising £30m at 25p/share.

Estimates: Mercia was is forecast to make £2.1m EBITDA to March 2020 so this is transformational.

Valuation: The market cap will be £130m which is 15X historic EBITDA, but at the 25p placing price it is 12.5X

Conclusion: Of every £ of AUM at NVM 2.3% turns up in NVM’s EBITDA which is breathtaking profitability. If this can grow the shares will be a good investment.

The well was not planned to be a producer; although of course had flow rates been significant that may have changed.

It is the 2020 drilling campaign that is planned to be appraisal/production wells in the GWA. As per the numerous presentations on the matter.

Must admit on initial reading of the RNS I had considered selling some shares but after calming down a bit the story remains intact. Can appreciate why many others will feel despondent though.

Lancaster -6 initial natural flow rate 5300 Post EPS >16,500
Lancaster -7Z initial natural flow rate 6520 Post EPS >16,500
Lincoln Crestal initial natural flow rate 4382 DST ESP 9800
Warwick West initial natural flow rate 1300 and still cleaning up

Inference that Lincoln and Warwick are potentially same field i.e. large increase in reserves forthcoming

Already been used by someone else

Four year old photo: https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/68111229/maui-field-looking-for-consent-for-another-35-years

They have been shareholders since February 2013. Part of the Forward Group, a private equity fund.

https://youtu.be/8kxT6vK_1SY
"David Ciclitira and Brian Lawrie talk Proactive London's Andrew Scott through the firm's first half report to June 2019.

Revenue for the first six months was £2mln which they say was in line with expectations.

Ciclitira adds that 63 events have been secured for 2019 - beating their target of 60."

"In my mind, there is no doubt that is the plan."

Pretty easy to have high confidence in that, considering it is stated as so in the Interim Presentation pack! :-)

"In my mind, there is no doubt that is the plan."

Pretty easy to have high confidence in that, considering it is stated as so in the Interim Presentation pack! :-)

Unless I am mistaken, there is a new Technical Presentation uploaded on the Hurricane website. I think this is the first presentation post EPS. Although not an oily person myself there is wealth of detailed information regarding Lancaster that I have not seen before. For the less technically minded there are lots of pretty pictures to look at.

As an outside industry observe I remain incredibly impressed about how much data is collected and analysed; makes you wonder why WD was a commercial failure!

Although dated 26 July 2019 it appears to have been very recently uploaded to the Hurricane website, and although its a revised piece. The presentation is approximately 7 weeks after first oil.

Download Link: https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/download_file/force/480/258

"As we await in 6 months a clear picture .."
It's actually 6-12 months of stable production. It will be some weeks/months before stable production commences.
Refer to the presentation material for verification

I can't do my maths properly. The provided Lat/Long is 250m away from the original 1975 well.

Biffadog,

Yes, very good point. Thanks.

I wonder if there is an error in that Bulletin? Liberator Field???

https://seafish.org/media/1566397563-Issue_17_Oil_Gas.pdf

Warwick A, 205/30b-A (Liberator Field)

Drilling ops due to commence 5th Sept 2019, Duration 80 days (again)

Location of 60°07.409'N 004°09.454'W is 2km NE of the 1975 well abandoned in 1975 (204/30-1). However there was some deviation in that well toward where 205/30b-A is to be spud.

Given a start date of 5 Sept then perhaps we can expect an RNS from LC a week prior to that

Yesterday I recall reading a post from someone implying they were surprised to find water in Lancaster wells.

Perhaps it's worth remembering Well 205/21-1A which was drilled in 1974 and was tested across a 75 m interval of basement tested with 191 barrels of WATER per day a day with a 2% trace of oil. Furthermore when Hurricane drilled the Lancaster horizontal well (205/21a-4Z) in 2010 stable rates of 2600 BOPD and 370 barrels of WATER per day was produced.

Again something to look out for and not necessarily feared when the LC results come in.