Member Info for calisto

As much as the SNP may want to have another go, even if they diid succeed is pushing a yes across the line the EU would not want them. Scotland are stuffed without Barnet and the EU has not got the money to take on the UK's role of benefactor. Furthermore mots of the other member states would veto an application to join on the same basis that many traditional labour supporters voted to leave the EU, namely foreigners grabbing benefit ahead of domestic claimants. Constitutionally there is also an issue as Scotland being a break away nation would be little different to the Basque region or Catalonia. So in conclusion an independent free Scotland would be Billy-no-mates, a fact well understood by the majority who voted to stay in the Union.

dont respond bamps just filter the troll

finance dept will have to work overtime tonight trying to calculate the number of new shares that will have to be issues top compensate the BoD for the loss in value.

Too true. The City has clearly given Redern's "vision for the future" the thumbs up. Funny the only person that has made any money out of this share of late is the man himself when he sold a couple of million shares at 203p thereby drawing a line in the sand as far as the sp is concerned. Of course has has been rewarded millions more, so should the price ever recover he can trouser a few more quid.

I distinctly remember reading it and certainly have seen some positions alit while back. Cant say I have looked recently but it is reasonably obvious that this share price has been walked down day in day out sometimes one or two shares at the time. I am kicking myself as I half felt I knew this would happen but tough fundamentals would prevail. I am the mug and that smarts.

I think we have all learnt a lesson here. The fundamentals don't really matter when a couple of edge funds say they will short the sector. They have been able top mug us all with the aid of their mates at the prop desks walking the price down. They must have known full well that our BoD would not give a toss as they get paid a huge salary in any event and we have no institutional shareholders to speak off other than Woodford. When PR and co shafted the City 10 years ago they lost all good will and we are still paying the price for that.

I guess much depends on how much the land cost to acquire and when they did. If it isa more than ten year ago I suspect it was written down along with rest which from memory cost us £1.6bn.

There will be some that know before we do. Keep an eye on the short positions.

I did a charity walk this spring doing all the London bridges from Putney down. Great fun though it was it was unreal to see the amount of flats being constructed and offered for sale from Wandsworth to Nine Elms. Hey because of the blocks of flats on both sides of the river the river looks little more than a ditch and its my understanding that transport links are nt great. If you are buying off plan and live in China Russia or the Middle East you probably would have no idea what the place looked like especially when going by the glossy sales brochures. More to the point when you look around you see a forest of cranes building more and more. These places while starting at 600k for a one bedder soon get towards million for a two. Floor space is minuscule so to buy such as place you have to be foreign or nuts or a UK pension fund like L&G chasing yield. The builders that have had their a$ses kicked in the last downturn have been careful not to make the same mistake again unlike Crest which of course is relatively new to the game. London will always be a destination for foreign money because we have rules and sound banking standards so to some extent a small haircut is worth the security you may not get at home. But there are clearly limits. Project Fear's predictions of armageddon were irresponsible and apprehensible but if you are sitting on some hot money and you contemplate a 35% haircut you might think again and may opt to stick it in Malta. The remain camp will continue to exaggerate the impact of our exit top suit their political ends and the media is happy enough to regurgitate regardless of validity. London property to me seems to be reflecting the reality that previous administrations of both political persuasions have looked the other way wrt the flow of funds from abroad. Rightly London's reputation now stinks and not before time questions are being asked, probably because the Exchequer sniffs an opportunity of raising a bit more cash. I can't see prices recover any time soon given the sheer amount construction going on and supply coming to the market over the two to three years. A good outcome wrt Brexit will see a resumption of foreign flows willing to take the risk of some political tweets to the system. Those at the beginning of the boom have made handsome amounts while those coming in late are now getting stuffed. Meanwhile we the shareholders of TW are getting a daily seeing to because we happen to be in the sector rather than involved in building houses that first time buyers want move into.

a positive write up in Questor yesterday detailing all the strengths of TW and how it looks set to benefit from the demand for housing over the next few years. Of course crest did us no favours yesterday with its third profit warning in two years. As I said yesterday the issues faced by Crest are not faced to same extent by many of its peers but nevertheless lazy extrapolation, perhaps deliberately so, saw our SP decline excessively and erroneously. While we have some exposure to London market, the bulk of our business is are in the property sweet spots where incentives such as help to buy are able to get new buyers on the housing ladder. This of course is different to the situation in London where the market has been allowed to be destroyed by non dom speculators for too long. Hysterical headlines from the plethora of "surveys" have helped automated traders mik the sector on a day to day basis perhaps keeping institutional money on the sidelines. Furthermore linking the Brexit process to buyers behaviour has also undermined sentiment. It is easy to see why foreign "investors" may cast a wary eye over events when thinking about piling into a million pound property in London. This however has little bearing on property sales in Beaconsfield, Milton Keynes, Swindon or Basingstoke. Housebuilding is a very simple business and things only go wrong when the decisions made become too clever for the BoD to understand and implement. We too have been there for those with short memories.

Jeez we are still going on about being outbred! ditch the smugglers, get the boxers and start performing!

sector wise there is not tat much to be concerned about it would appear. Crests "difficulties" are Crest specific and not really that relevant to others such TW. Crest got suckered into having too great an exposure to Central london through being drain by help to buy and other incentives they over exposing the portfolio from a risk perspective. They are moving out of London now increasing exposure to lower price point housing where conditions are much more benign.

As for bad news beg to differ unemployment both youth and adult is at a record low and inflation despite a weak currency is subdued while wage growth is reasonable. Brexit I am afraid is a done deal so we will all have to make the best of it. Europe have played a dirty game using the Irish border as tool to stall progress and sow division. The EU has more to lose financially then we do and they are acutely aware of this and as the departure date gets closer the minds will focus and a deal struck. History has seen the UK in a number of scrapes and invariably come out on top. It will be no different this time, fingers crossed.

another way off returning surplus cash to shareholders. It did not work because Brexit noise has risen dramatically and the company almost issues as many new shares as it cancelled for the staff bonus scheme, So net net the number of shared has not really gone down very much.

Most of the builders while acknowledging Brexit is a "rip " of some sort have managed to mitigate the impacts you describe through greater efficiency. Earnings have not fallen off a cliff since the leave vote as many pundits forecast it would. The builders unlike 10 years ago are in great shape, debt free and invariably have a very competitive landbank interims of valuation as many took the opportunity to write down the value ten years ago when the proverbial hit the fan. The cash generated by this sector is unreal and far in excess of what companies can sensibly spend within the business and I think it fair to say has probably exceeded management expectations as we have seen with Persimmon. Punter maybe cautious buying million pound properties in London because a "bad" Brexit outcome may affect the short time valuation of the property but perhaps more to the point is questions that may be asked about the source of purchase funds when from coming overseas. This however does materially seem to have impact on on the sub £300-400k market where demand still outstrips supply and buyers continue to get Govt support. Given the financial robustness of most in the sector, unrealistically armageddon has been prices into valuations.

The building sector rightly or wrongly, wrongly imo, has been made the poster child of Brexit by the media in particular. House prices and their direction has been a national obsession for decades and for many prices have gone up too fact and too far. The reality is that we happen to live in a country where foreigners feel comfortable to park/launder their money and property investment is a convenient way of doing so. London of course is the prime casualty as too much property has been built and investment conditions have and will continue to be tightened wrt buy to let and foreign ownership. But none of this is new and has been more than reflected in the share price which has roughly halved over the last 12 months. But yes its good to blame Brexit. Why not? They are all doing it, Jamie Oliver , Richard Branson etc etc. i am still waiting for my first choice location of a pad in Shad Thames to get into range. Sadly I don think it is going to happen any time soon Deal or no Deal Brexit.

The issue of the Irish border has been weaponised by the EU to somehow prevent us from walking away with our contributions to the trough. It is not an issue that cannot be resolved as, has been rightly pointed out already it is not without precedent elsewhere in Europe. The EU are playing on TM's weakened hand since the snap election and here 'reliance" on the vociferous DUP to keep hold of Government. Its nothing more than shoddy opportunism and in many way sums up the mentality of the guardians of the EU trough. Brussels is fooling no one, other than themselves, and events are closely watches by other disgruntled Member States. Davis suggest that companies in Germany and France are getting "rattled". while he would say that, there is probably an element of truth in it as the economic cost of a "no deal" outcome is starting to be factored in. We should not expect any warm words from the bulk of the EU as they rely on handouts from the top table. But then by the same then their opinion probably won't count for much any way and as we have seen already a small group of Flemish farmers call the shots. Nothing will happen tonight as TM yet again submits Checkers as the only option on the table. For the EU, despite all their disingenuous manoeuvring, the choice is relatively straight forward: a choice between a little of something or something of nothing. Get this wrong, TM is out of office and someone like RM will move into Number 10.

that our SP is controlled by a small bunch of a holes. We go up less that rest of the sector and go down more. The SP performance over the last couple of years has been pathetic and in some effect must be laid at the door of the BoD how have done absolutely nothing to install the confidence of the market. In fat the share price has gone backwards since PR unleashed his "blue print for growth" on the market in May. Looking at the number of shares he has been awarded one has to question on what ground the BoD is being remunerated. Sure Crest is not helping today but the share price has halved over the year to date and events were well flagged at the half year stage and already overly discounted in the share price before todays announcement.

OR you start wearing boxers instead of budgie smugglers as it is my understanding it benefits male fertility.

from Bellway today. Matters not as shorters still don't seem to have finished and the prop desks are willing manipulate the order book. what a joke this share has become

of low volume shareholder mugging as PR and his chums sit on their hands. At least we now know why some hedgies decided to go short. They must have been pretty sure of being able to drive the price down ahead of an update from the company. I should have seen this coming