Member Info for calisto

its just the name isn't it ?

good to see! sadly I have had to sell some of my holding to help fund some Brexit insurance wheels. I just can't understand why the "market" pays so much attention to the 'gurus" when they have been so consistently wrong. fingers crossed for further advance from here. gla all

volume of negativity and fear mongering bilge the remainers and their media luvvie mates have bombarded us with over the last couple of years, life will get very hard for them once we have left.

many thanks. I had not seen it. Just over a month left now maybe less.

The us investor's approach to Biotech sector seems a lazy one and not dissimilar to the way the invest in oil E&P companies. The difference of course is that bio's run on innovation whereas oil stocks tend to respond to drilling success and the oil price outlook.

Do we know if Motif is presenting at JPM? Sorry if this has been discussed already, I have had my hands full with other issues so not been able to pay as much attention as I should have.

"to use the service and and workers as a bribe is really sickening" It would juts not occur to Labour to bribe the electorate. shameful truly shameful

only 50% ? lol

"Controversial" pick this morning by some investor on R4 this morning FWIW. Happy New year everyone hoping for better times in 2019

The Fed has been too blinkered in its approach to interstate's rates. It has looked at where rates have been historically to establish a point of "neutrality" and has been too mechanistic and overly aggressive in its policy A more measured approach would have been easier to accommodate by the emerging economies and its impact on US domestic economic growth prospects given the ongoing trade spat with China would have been easier to spot. The Fed's arrogant stance now leaves it little choice but to row back on rhetoric as it now looks a distinct possibility that the US economy will begin to slow more aggressively as a consequence of Fed policy. Inflation will not be an issue given the weakness of commodity prices so the Neutral rate is likely to be lower than where it has been historically.. Powell won't like being bullied by Trump but then on the other hand he won't want to go down in history as the Chairman who put healthy economy into recession. Not good for book sales or the lecture circuit

The only way we can renegotiate is when we are in out transition period trading under WTO and GATT rules. It will be up to the EU to bring an offer to table that is acceptable to us and one that does not jeopardise our trade relationships with the rest of the world.

Decent new build pipeline up YoY everywhere but London. Unless new houses fail to sell net years earnings are nailed on. Market's linkage of new builds to Brexit is naive, simplistic and misguided. buying a new home is not like buying a dishwasher or a third pair of trainers.

Not before time is the Govt getting round to fleshing out a no deal scenario with TM demanding departments start using the £1bn earmarked for doing so. Its late in the day but clarification and quantification of the no deal scenario will be needed to educate the electorate and parliamentarians alike and demonstrate to Brussels that they and the Remainers have jerked us around enough. It won't take much to demonstrate tat an orderly exit under WTO and GATT will be economically better for us than the deal currently on the table provided by Brussels. It anything figures as opposed to hysterical rhetoric should see markets adjust and possibly even recover from current overly pessimistic levels. It seems clear that global growth looks set too moderate somewhat given the overly hawkish monetary policy pursued by the Fed over the last year or so in the face of the trade spat between the US and China.. It would not surprise me if the Fed starts hinting at having reached neutral rates and China and the US come to some for of compromise over the next few weeks as it becoming clear to both sides that to continue will have a definitive and possibly lasting impact on economic growth over the next couple of years. The EU on the other hand has little scope to arrest the slowdown as the CB has been unable to give itself any elbow room and thus will have to live with an artificially strong Euro and force exporters into having to discount their goods. Sterling may weaken a little more over the next few months but realistically its probably up with events given markets are efficient. In essence the fall in commodity prices from our perspective could not have come at a better time from an inflationary perspective. We have had two years to get used to idea that we are mandated to leave the EU so its logical to assume that current valuations already reflect an outcome that is material worse than is realistically likely.

Yes

Typically no figures just hysterical rhetoric. A no deal scenario sees us enter a transition period under a well established set of rules in common practice around the world. tariffs such as they are are mutual and certainly not one side to "punish our vital car industry" Its all been conveniently forgotten what really killed off our car industry in the seventies allowing predatory brands to set up in this country minimising taxes paid through transfer pricing while at the same time swallowing up billions in subsidies. The transition period will be orderly contrary to the hype and the very implementation of tariffs will focus the minds of the "negotiators" The EU 's efforts to date have focussed entirely on preventing us from leaving the EU so the question of tariffs has not arisen as far as they are concerned just our "divorce settlement". Now the WTO exit is becoming more of a reality the level of histrionics from Remain will be ramped up to ludicrous levels in the fervent hope of forcing another referendum. Its pretty shoddy that the Remain camp is now relying on parasites like Tony Blair to do their bidding. telling though

You are quite right Jl the NI border was weaponised by the EU when TM lost her majority and had to form a facilitation arrangement with the DUP. In essence the snap election neutered the Conservative party and laid down the basis for the c£ap deal we have now. The other issue is that over the entire time the remain camp has been to distort the essence of the so called no deal “ scenario. It is complete nonsense that a wto/GAAT departure has to be disorderly. The country has been shafted by those we pay to represent our interests. the left leaning media and a lazy feckless civil service. The EU needs our financial contribution more now than at any other time as populism is gaining momentum and more are beginning to question the federalist agenda of Brussels. The euro zone economy is showing all the signs of increasing differential economic stress which the ECB has no tools to address. We have the opportunity to get off this ship but for now the EU and the remain camp have managed to keep our lifeboat tied on. That The stakes are high for us is true but unlike the EU we are not yet drinking in the last chance saloon.

Kilduff does not have much of a track record in fact he is one of the many talking heads that CNBC relies on from time to time to give some vacuous info/colour. We have a "nervous" market because of the Fed and Trump right now. Situation is compounded yesterday by J&J and a long overdue reality check on FAANG valuations which lets face it have been utterly ludicrous even setting aside Facebook's run of poor publicity wrt data breaches, fake news and support for dodge organisations. Having just come back from Hong Kong the place is as busy as it has ever been in terms of construction. Restaurants are always full and the shops are heaving. Oil rices are nt going anywhere imo as alternatives and shale have captured permanent market share leaving OPEC to fiddle around at the margins. This of course is good for us in terns of inflationary pressures looking forward.

was driving this morning and happened to listen R4 nay accident as opposed to R1. They were talking about a long term study hat is being carried on Bradford. Some 35000 participants starting 10 year ago. Kids born then are now 10 are finishing primary school. Most of the kids are obese. Fast food outlets have taken over in the high street where chicken and chips costs as little as £1The kids do no exercise at all. When they get older they go from school to the madrasser for another two hours they do no exercise. Families have four to five kids parents are obese and suffering from diabetes so are the kids. "Childhood obesity and diabetes has now become an epidemic" according to a doctor involved in the study. I think its fair to say that we can probably extrapolate from this study and get an idea of the scale and growing problem facing the NHS and our country. It is nothing to do with the Tories. Its life style choice- save on food buy eating c£ap then you have money left over for booze and fags.

May's deal is not an option surely? It will be rejected by all sides of the political divide. Whats needed is simple understanding of the differences between TM's EU sponsored "deal" and an organised GATT/WTO exit with the same extension until 2020. That way the EU can get a feel of the true cost of their hard-assed diplomacy and not dragging over the last couple of years The British people deserve to know that the EU has never ceased to see them as week and inferior and in essence put absolutely nothing even remotely representing compromis on the table. The EU do not want a deal, they want the lot. If there is no deal than the fault lies squarely with Brussels. The Brexit friendly media will do well to cease the vitriolic tirade against TM and start educating their readership about the pros, cons and cost and benefits of an orderly GATT/WTO departure.

Thank you Pbow. Good illustration.which may help crow. Of course we need to add in the effect of Sterlings movements against the Euro which so far has given us a competitive boost of 10% on our exports to te EU and even to some extent the rest of the world. As luck would have it inflationary pressures are subdued and look set to remain so offering the real prospect of low interest rates for some time. Indeed The EU is now expected to move into recession by the middle of next year just As Mario is about to hand over in October. Having been unable to raise intrest rates in Europe, it will be a difficult challenge to find any levers that can be pulled to ward of recession or stagflation. Our departure on a no deal basis in particular will exacerbate the situation, but I don't suspect that message has made its way from Mario to Junckers yet. Clearly there are going to be some pressures here at home but then we have been bombarded wit armageddon scenarios even from before the country voted to leave by the Project Fear team, Treasury and BOE, remainders and their media sidekicks. As nation we are mentally well prepared. We have seen the beginning of what will become a growing trend throughout Europe in France, a dissatisfaction with austerity policies emanating from the Centre regardless of suitability. Draghi indirectly seemed to hint at the Euro's standing on the eve of its 20 birthday to me a tacit acceptance that it has been one of the main contributors to EU economic disparity. If its "difficult" to leave the EU as we are finding at the minute it is bound to pale into insignificance with what would be involved to restructure the single currency on a more equitable basis. WE are leaving the ship hopefully in a life raft, if none available then hopefully close enough to shore to swim. Many other member states including Ireland may well look back on this episode and wish they had been a little more flexible in their approach towards us.

In the end its down to tariffs. Nobody likes them, nobody wants to pay them. Wrt EU we would be net tariff recipients as things stand. We have the transition period which I believe we could trade under GATT until a suitable FTA arrangement is sorted. Presumably the car industry will be one of the biggest sectors set against our Financial services. The EU will blink if and when they realise that the UK will not return to the EU either through another referendum or a rescinding of Art 50. jmo of course