Member Info for c2645sg

Carpoy what do you mean the design of new cars is already budgeted for?

You don't get these things for free. D&A is £330m this year, and that won't cover it, that's my point. Each car costs around £200m, so £330m in one year is NOT enough. This has to cover everything else in one year too remember. (electric developement etc)

The full deal with Merc was worth £286m for 20% of the company.
They were on 5% befoire this deal was struck. So they needed to add shares because of the dilution then get another 15% roughly.

You loie all you want Caroy, your refusal to face facts is the sole reason you are at a mssive loss

AML has fallen from £23 to £4.90, over a year, well before markets started tanking.

Sure you bought more, haha, we all believe you. ;)
You first bought at 6.23, then you doubled up at 5.62 , so now you are saying you doubled up again recently to bring average down from 5.80 ish to 5.35?
That's called a trade gone bad.

Tell us all how AML gets out of this predicament?

£400m cash left.

£143m needed for Merc shares early 2023, this should have been free shares at £12.46, now they need to pay cash for the shortfall. SP needs to near treble to avoid this.

Cash burn of £200m this year at least

A court case which they could lose £150m +

The need to design new cars for 2023 which cost around £200m each.

The interest costs are £195m per year, dollar denominated, so the lower sterling falls against the dollar the higher the debt payments.

Why are Stroll or any of the directors not buying shares now?
He has 22% of the company, and maybe only 5% of that is his own cash.
No announcement? The SP is 1/5th of what it was, no shares bought, no direction, just silence and burnt holders?!

Just like the F1 team, he looks weak and rudderless.
At least he doesn;t have to worry about a shareholder revolt. They kept the AGM quiet, hardlty anyone went, it was a box ticking exercise.
So much for the British Ferrari.

It's started.....
https://www.ft.com/content/126d8b02-f06a-4fd9-a57b-9f4ceab3de71#comments-anchor

Three Arrows Capital failed to meet demands from lenders to stump up extra funds after its digital currency bets turned sour, tipping the prominent crypto hedge fund into a crisis that comes as a credit crunch grips the industry.

https://the-race.com/formula-1/gary-anderson-the-f1-expansion-philosophy-aston-martin-needs/

Strider's been commenting on the article too, I hope he doesn't mind me posting them here:

Two thoughts. First, when Aston Martin said it will launch it's first pure electric car in 2025, the keyboard warriors and even badly-researched analysts eager for airtime, derided the company as behind it's competitors. As I said at the time, clearly tosh.

Second, at the Aston Martin AGM, Lawrence Stroll said he has no idea why the share price is in the gutter, yet he had presented no vision, no roadmap, no anything that investors could buy-into. The meeting was a pure box-ticking exercise. Yet here is the company he claims to want to challenge holding an investor day, setting out it's vision, giving actual forward looking numbers. The contrast is stark.

reply:
Aston Martin’s Share price is in the gutter because of accounting shenanigans and a balance sheet made out of detritus. Nothing to do with the brand or strategy. Purely financials

Strider:
Value is always a balance. On one side you have the negatives - huge debts, difficult renegotiations with Daimler, outdated product with terrible styling, a board that is seen but not allowed to speak - on the other side you have all the positives, which should be based on great leadership implementing a credible, well thought-out strategy in carefully articulated bite-sized chunks that can each be celebrated. No articulation of this strategy, if it exists beyond moving into direct, head-to-head competition with the world's most powerful car brand, means the only thing on the positive side of the balance is hope and fading memories of Sean Connery.

https://www.ft.com/content/a5b1da85-30f7-4d6f-b669-3836c89a32c9

...and I think the best comment from today's entire FT goes to Vinrouge:
Be careful out there folks, this is getting serious!

"When there was a gold standard central banks couldn't allow leverage from the credit system to get too excessive & interest rates had to rise without delay.
After half a century of not having to worry about the value of their currencies, along with the dominance of finance capital, 'moral hazard' has been long forgotten & central bankers have been complicit in providing cheap money to fuel the excessive leverage (debts).
At every hit of the asset price bubble popping, central bankers bail out their investment banking mates.
Now that inflation has seriously taken off they either debase their currencies or allow the chain of credit to break.
They'll probably have both.

I expect carnage.
Sovereign debt crises.
Zombie companies collapsing bring down healthy ones.
Just what form the political reaction takes will be interesting."

https://www.stuff.co.nz/motoring/128984177/mclaren-caves-will-build-an-suv-after-all

https://www.unitetheunion.org/news-events/news/2022/june/mclaren-aston-martin-and-bentley-supply-chain-hit-by-strikes-over-pay-cut/

Mercedes didn’t spend any money.
They were gifted free shares as part of a technology agreement.
And could not afford to pay for it, so they diluted shareholders instead.

Yes eg68
But the purpose of the whole market is to make a price in which you balance them.
So MMS are constantly dropping AML to entice buyers like BTFath, who get rinsed when they offset that with 50,000 sells every afternoon.
The share price tells you everything. Looking at trades is futile, MMS can make them look like anything they want on free sites like this.

Apologies, the Merc deal is as follows:
£286m or 20% of AML was the target, by early 2023.

The danger is Moers has gone in conjunction with Mercedes, which could mean Merc have seen bankruptcy approaching and are the sellers?
If it aint Merc, then it's a fund and/or insiders selling.

It will be an RNS regardless.

£400m cash left.

£189m needed for Merc shares early 2023, this should have been shares at £12.46, now they need to pay cash for the shortfall.

Cash burn of £200m this year at least

A court case which they could lose £150m +

The need to design new cars for 2023 which cost around £200m each.

The interest costs are £195m per year, dollar denominated, so the lower sterling falls against the dollar the higher the debt payments.

THG are a sham company. I wouldn't trust Moulding with anything.

Someone in the city knows something.
I think the writing is on the wall for AML.

You just DID mention them.
Another "LTH" who sticks his head in the sand and ignores ALL the warning signs, only to lose money from his own flawed decisions.

If this goes to 0, you lose the lot.

Another 50,000 sell yesterday at 4.03pm. £250k chunks being sold almost daily now.
Someone big is offloading, and no-one knows who it is.
That will be in interesting RNS, I wonder who....

£4.90 to sell now, this is a complete implosion.

1. DBX straight 6 ready for sale into Chinese Market when lockdowns are lifted.
It was released in Q1, DBX sales were down 44%, APAC sales down 26%

2. DBX707 now in production, orders are 60% up on this time last year!
Says Stroll, unconfirmed.

3. Vantage V12...total sellout of 333 cars with basic price of £265K before add-ons.
£88m income, say 30% margin = £26m profit. Debt interest is £200m per annum.

4. Vantage V12 roadster...expected.
5. Valkyrie in production and being delivered to customers...price £2.5 million basic!
Unknown cost of production, was almost definitely a loss making car overall.

5. Sports/GT to be totally reworked and ready for early 2023.
H2 2023, straight from Moers' mouth.

6. Valhalla...limited edition of roughly 900 priced at basic of £700K due late 2023.
2024, directly from Moers' mouth.

7. Mid-engine vanquish core model due for release 2024.

2025, directly from Moers' mouth.

8. More orders coming in for AM helicopter.
Haha, not even mentioned in annual accounts.

9. AM motor bikes (Superbikes) recently started being delivered. 100 bikes priced at £108K each.
£1m income at say 20% margin, so £20m profit, peanuts, that was FX charges in one year.

10. Aston Martin condominiums in Miami due for completion end of this year. 391 condos on sale now, priced at between £4.2 million and £59million each! The average price is £18m!!!
Lawrence Stroll has promised a rolling programme of specials moving forward, which all demand premium prices. Also please note that starting with the DBX707, all cars will have at least a 40% profit margin and some will be as high as 50%. Prior to Lawrence taking control the margin was only about 20%.

Total Revenue - Total Expenses ) / Total Revenue

Q1 2022: 232 - 118/232 = 49%

The expenses of 118 will rise significantly because of energy and transport costs tripling.
Also, all commodities are rising fast, so raw materials and other parts will definitely have risen too.

Let’s just say 150m for argument's sake. (25% increase in expenses)

That would mean margin of 36%.
If sales are down at the same time, then it’s even worse than 36%.

Let’s say sales drop 10%

209-150/209 = 28%.

We have a range of 28%-50%.
I know which end I would be betting on..