Member Info for c2645sg

Meanwhile in Germany.....

some current information (10 min. ago) from my AML dealer:

Production of the GT/sportscars was ramped down to build more DBX. Hence the longer delivery times for these models. DBX currently 5 months. The first 707s for customers are coming in July. So nothing with good Q2 numbers. Production increase not possible due to the supply. Communication with AML strangely quiet, as if they're up to something. Due to the delivery problem, Lanbo can no longer produce vehicles, which leads to the delivery times. There are many speculative buyers and it is feared that this bubble will soon burst. Approx. 212 Urus are only for sale at mobile. Significant price drops are expected. Furthermore, one notices a migration at Ferrari, which is based on the rapid model changes and always new vehicle types, which is rated negatively by many customers. (can you believe

£400m cash left.
Cash burn of £200m this year at least,
A court case which they could lose £150m +
The need to design new cars for 2023 which cost around £200m each.
The interest costs are £195m per year
The need to pay over a hundred million to Merc for tech agreement in early 2023.

Q1 results…..
Total Liabilities are now £2.34 bil., up £236 mil.
Equity down £210 mil. to £554 mil
Cash has dropped by £172 mil. to £404 mil
Debt is up £234m From £723m to 957m
Market cap is £833M, Net debt is 957M

Sports/GT car sales are half what they were in 2019 (pre-pandemic)
DBX sales down 44% from Q1 2021.
Americas sales down 16%
APAC sales down 26% (Ferrari sales were UP in APAC, so no excuses)
The loss before tax was £113m (Q1 2021: £42m)
Wholesales down 14%.
Cash: £404, but £331m of that is customer deposits. Dangerous if people start asking for deposits back as Valkyrie STILL doesn’t work.
Interest expenses up from £171m to £195m per annum
D&A £315-330m.

That means targets of 10k cars sales and EBITDA of £500m, subtract £195m, subtract £320m.
Even if AML hit Stroll’s ridiculous target of 10,000 sales in 2024/25, they still make a £15m loss.

That's half a million quid in sells the last 2 days, it's been going on for weeks.

45,000 shares dumped at 15:40 on friday
50,000 shares dumped today at 11:40.

Be wary of paid posters claiming imminent rises, someone huge is exiting with massive sells. The MMs need to suck in buyers to match these sells.

https://www.motor1.com/news/594292/sports-cars-endangered-species-automotive-world/

I see Rex (AMLs biggest fan) has now sold all his holding over on the other forum.
Where's Kibkalm gone?
Bankruptcy looms large.

Who is going to bail out a company like AML with such a terrible balance sheet, sports car sales diminshing rapidly, and the fraught electric transition?

Rex65: @Sky 06/25/22 22:25#5540
I agree 100% with your thoughts and experiences/observations regarding circle of acquaintances.

I spontaneously got out of a long investment for the first time (7 pounds) and realized big losses. Not to wait on the sidelines, but out of sheer fear of total failure. Yes, tactical bankruptcy would be the wisest course for Stroll and his "lenders" (cf. British bankruptcy law).

An Inso from AML is commercially overdue. Only the creditors have an insolvency claim, not the owners (shareholders). Stroll+Kumpel are at the front of the boat with their 1 billion.

https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&f=70&t=1719281&i=3260

I hope JOn39 doesn't mind me reposting his message... Read the last 2 pages of this thread....

"Hear'say evidence that confirmed build dates to dealers, have subsequently being postponed.
Several vehicles mentioned, one delayed by 3 months, another with no known date.

Do you think Aston Martin might be affected by component shortages ?

If so, most unfortunate, because that would be a factor largely outside AML control, and at a time when their factories presumably have additional available production capacity."

This ties in with the GT$Racer comment that cars are being stacked in Gaydon awaiting crucial parts.
Q2 is going to be utterly hideous. CHina was locked down for all of it, so no sales there for 3 months.
Ouch.

£400m cash left.

£143m needed for Merc shares early 2023, this should have been free shares at £12.46, now they need to pay cash for the shortfall.

Cash burn of £200m this year at least

A court case which they could lose £150m +

The need to design new cars for 2023 which cost around £200m each.

The interest costs are £195m per year, dollar denominated, so the lower sterling falls against the dollar the higher the debt payments.

"While we can certainly appreciate Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings's revenue growth, its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss is not ideal. Indeed, it lost a very considerable UK£108m at the EBIT level. Combining this information with the significant liabilities we already touched on makes us very hesitant about this stock, to say the least. That said, it is possible that the company will turn its fortunes around. But we think that is unlikely, given it is low on liquid assets, and burned through UK£102m in the last year. So we consider this a high risk stock and we wouldn't be at all surprised if the company asks shareholders for money before long."

https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/automobiles/lse-aml/aston-martin-lagonda-global-holdings-shares/news/is-aston-martin-lagonda-global-holdings-lonaml-using-too-muc

Doyezee

Posted in: AML

Posts: 1,147

Price: 1,603.50

No Opinion

Another 10% drop looms19 Nov 2021 16:48
So having broken into the 1500’s today, I unfortunately predict the SP will now be walked down into the mid/low 1400’s unless the company release some very positive news over and beyond anything expected. Whilst disappointing and negative in the very short term, it will (if it happens) be a fantastic opportunity to add more which I fully intend to do as I believe the company is still very much on track and has an extremely promising and positive future which in turn will mean great returns for us shareholders. I think the personnel, relationships, experience, work ethic, partnerships, talent and vision at AML are now first class and there’s so much more to come. I’m extremely bullish on the longer term prospects of AML and am not in the slightest deterred by any short term decline/volatility in the SP. GLA

Stroll said DBX orders were up 60%.
So why has it dropped to 30%?
That has massive implications for the business.....

Eevery number I posted is now WORSE than it was back then, and it was BAD back then.

c2645sg
Posted in: AML
Posts: 2,044
Price: 1,988.00
No Opinion

RE: Reasons to be Cheerful02 Aug 2021 13:34
AML:

-Burning through cash (after all the cost-cutting by Herr Moers)…. £60m burned between 25th Feb and 28th July (5 months, that’s £144m per annum)
-Operating losses of £200 million per year
-Creating new bond debt every few months £1.3bn total. Last raise was £77m in Feb ’21, £60mil spent already already. How long before next raise, only £17m left?
-Cannot generate enough cashflow to pay interest on debt never mind pay off debt.
-Operating Profit, Free Cash Flow, and Net Debt are heading in the wrong direction,
-Loading dealers with DBX models to inflate wholesales, refusing to publish retail sales to obfuscate supply/demand.
-Collaps of GT/sports cars sales, half the levels of pre-pandemic
-Interest expenses of £135m per annum (which increases every time they crate more bond debt)
-Bond debt of £1.3bn, Bondholders are undisclosed, but making 12.5% to 15% per annum, effectively doubling their cash in 5 years)
-Depreciation and amortisation increasing to £260million per annum
-Capex and R&D at 250-275million per annum
-St Athan running at 40% capacity, laying off 1/3 of the workforce.
-Current EBITDA doesn’t even cover interest payments on the debt
-Future EBITDA for 2024/25 making a profit even questionable then.
(Projected 10,000 sales, 2bn revenue, 500m ebitda.
Minus D&A of 260m, minus interest of 135m = £105m profit, but based on sales of Valkyrie/Valhalla which has gone to court to decide.
-Stroll suing the company who sell 20% of all AML’s limited edition cars through their Swiss dealership, race AML cars in GT3/GT4, and have an agreement in place to fund Valkyrie project with costs to be recouped on Valkyrie, Valhalla and Vanquish DEPOSITS AND SALES in the future, so you can pretty much say goodbye to a decent portion of the £105m profits above)
-Valkyrie was designed in 2015, it’s now 2021 and still hasn’t passed road crash tests, broke down twice at Goodwood. Profits from the supercar in doubt due to current court case
-Agreement with Merc, but Moers refuses to answer analysts if AML will receive the MBUX infotainment or Mercedes AMG EA (high performance electric powertrain) technology
-Adeem still selling off their holding, which stood at 7% in Feb ’21.

Cue the personal abuse and anything to distract from each and every fact above.
Maybe we could accuse me of being another poster, debate photos of Stroll’s beard or the names of the cars, f1 grid positions and fantasies about being 1/3 of the market cap of Ferrari instead?

c2645sg
Posted in: AML
Posts: 2,044
Price: 1,944.50
No Opinion

RE: This board27 Sep 2021 12:46
Agreed Merciaman.
It's been 18 months since Stroll took over and 14 months since Moers took his fine tooth comb through the entire company.
We have massive exposure in F1, TV adverts during F1 on TV, paid adverts by Stroll in FT and other media outlets, GT3 racing wins, Covid lockdowns in the past, etc etc....and what are the numbers?

-Sports/GT car sales at half what they were in 2019.

-DBX sales lower than everyone expected. Palmer promised 6000, then 5000, then Stroll said 4,000, now 3,000, and sales so far are pointing towards 2400-2600 per year.

Operating Profit, Free Cash Flow, and Net Debt are heading in the wrong direction.

Locked in a court case for royalty payments on Valkyrie, Valhalla and Vanquish sales, therefore impossible to project if AML will EVER be profitable.

Losses this year of circa £200m, burning through cash at the rate of £120m per year, interest payments of £135m per year.

And people winder why the share price is static.
Action speaks louder than words, saying you want to be the UK Ferrari doesn't make it so.

The danger is losing your old customer base, and spending money you don't have on marketing to lure younger customers through F1 etc. and it fails to pay off.

If the board don't sort this out soon, AML will continue to lose money, increase the debt and run out of customers. Exactly what Daimler want.

First they ignore you,
Then they laugh at you,
Then they fight you,
Then you win.

The they claim you didn’t call it correctly at all.

c2645sg
Posted in: AML
Posts: 2,044
Price: 1,750.00
No Opinion
RE: Brilliant improvement04 Nov 2021 10:06

Not long til the hedge funds start shorting this I reckon, like THG and Darktrace.

c2645sg
Posted in: AML
Posts: 2,044
Price: 1,801.50
No Opinion
RE: Brilliant improvement04 Nov 2021 08:17

This jump is the best chance to get out now before the shizzle hits the fan.

The definiton of madness is responding to posts you have on filter.

I aint talking to myself, plenty people listening and you know it. I don;t see anyone asking you for advice, I wonder why.

Imagine filtering the one person who has called it right from £22 to £5.

Stille, why would you mention old charlatan rampers from this board, are you trying to tell us something?
Maybe you like a good pump and dump as much as the other rampers on this BB...

No time to die, remember that?
Relentless. Relentless platitudes. Relentless ramping.

Stroll still in command?
You said that at £11.58, now it's £5.30.

erntit99
Posted in: AML
Posts: 47
Price: 1,158.50
Strong Buy

None11 Feb 2022 21:10
Do these derampers and rampers go on the **** at 12pm on Fridays. Or is stroll in command

Shame you have no humility.

"So you hadn't read the accounts in full. Bit lazy for someone trashing the company. Anyway, life's great, sport, family, property on Riviera, saving,income ,paper profits and losses, and lose cricket and golf. Some of us on here have a life."

Q2 will be worse than Q1 below....

Total Liabilities are now £2.34 bil., up £236 mil.
Equity down £210 mil. to £554 mil
Cash has dropped by £172 mil. to £404 mil
Debt is up £234m From £723m to 957m
Market cap is NOW 617M, Net debt is 957M

Sports/GT car sales are half what they were in 2019 (pre-pandemic)
DBX sales down 44% from Q1 2021.
Americas sales down 16%
APAC sales down 26% (Ferrari sales were UP in APAC, so no excuses)
The loss before tax was £113m (Q1 2021: £42m)
Wholesales down 14%.
Cash: £404, but £331m of that is customer deposits. Dangerous if people start asking for deposits back as Valkyrie STILL doesn’t work.
Interest expenses up from £171m to £195m per annum
D&A £315-330m.

That means targets of 10k cars sales and EBITDA of £500m, subtract £195m, subtract £320m.
Even if AML hit Stroll’s ridiculous target of 10,000 sales in 2024/25, they still make a £15m loss.

MrNation was another charlatan ramper.
When it hit £1 he was ramping £1.50 and £2. But he was banned and all his posts removed. I wonder why?

Earnings are next to get hit across the board, this is what happens in a recession....
Another 10-15%, maybe 20% drop then start thinking about investing long term again.

https://www.ft.com/content/757cb5e3-ad2f-41e2-9094-ccf0148f9e30

The current data signal a synchronised slowdown around the world. Rather than uninterrupted earnings per share growth, our models point to an earnings recession in the year ahead. We expect US earnings to fall by an 10 to 15 per cent over that time. Perhaps even more impressive is that the consensus EPS forecast for the Euro Stoxx index companies is signalling increasing earnings expectations despite the war in Ukraine and a cost of living crisis that is likely to raise costs and reduce demand for corporates. Our “top-down” forecasts suggest that eurozone EPS could fall by an annualised 20 per cent in the year ahead.