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Down 12.5% already.
Bucketman
Posted in: AML
Posts: 168
Price: 152.00
No Opinion
RE: Late trades16 Apr 2024 10:11
C2645sg can’t help yourself can you, 11 days to go….. I think by then we all will know what the c stands for “he who laughs the loudest laughs last…..
Low free float means low volume. Hence why the sells I posted (and AML007 kept trying to patronise me on) are relevant.
They are enough to take the sp down from £4 to £1.30 n a few months.
Support is now 120-128p range, if it goes through that, it’s headed for 90p.
The lower the share price, the bigger the dilution for the next cash raise.
Why make resolutions 21-24?
Cash raise then AML taken private, and all the rampers will never get a chance to make their money back.
Now we know why the AGM aint in person, it's online only.
Https://www.astonmartin.com/-/media/corporate/documents/share-holders/aston-martin-lagonda-notice-of-annual-general-meeting-2023.pdf?rev=22c876b7d8fd42e69caf7f06e73e10bd&hash=DB82035A9EE57F6D7524A74F6EDFDE1B
Read 21-24 very carefully.
I was wondering why it's online and not in person.
The free float is so small here, it exacerbates the share price movement.
All the big boys have their stake and can't really increase it, for one reason or another.
The more the share price sinks, the less the free float gets bought, and the more it sinks.
Its a vicious circle Stroll has created, unintended consequences.
Hopefully it's his downfall, but I reckon he will take AML private before then.
One last cash raise....
Https://www.ft.com/content/166bd7a9-7849-4503-b779-92b38f561c5c
Net debt was £385m in January 31 2020 when Stroll took over.
It now stands at £1044m.
Take a bow, Lawrence.
Not even football team owners are that bad, just over 4 years of ownership and he's tripled the debt.
Small shareholders will soon be bagholders, I bet he takes it private and you'll all be left with nothing, no chance of making any of it back.
Https://www.investorsobserver.com/news/qm-news/7625390650801601
Stille harping on about Lagonda when Stroll killed that idea stone dead recently.
Wake up!
Newey is not interested in Aston purely because of Stroll.
Adrian knows Stroll is only going to sell the team when he has made enough money, and isn't interested in working with a part-timer like Lance, no-one wants to work with Lance except daddy.
What the Strollovich's don't understand is no-one actually likes or admires them, they just have to put up with them because they are rich and own the team.
...and here is my working.
AML burned through almost £200m in Q1.
Q2 will be similar, so let's call the total a nice round £400m.
Can you see them earning £401m in H2 to say they are cash-flow positive over the full year?
Nope, neither can the market.
The debt interest is £120m per annum, alone. capex on new models is £344m for the year. Mental.
Share prices drop for good reason, and the reason is AML are running out of cash at an alarming rate, AGAIN!
They need to raise £200m in the next 3 months and the market knows this.
Who wants to buy the shares between now and the next cash raise?
Shortermers who sell as fast as they buy.
It's going to be another brutal year, AML said themselves new models "by the end of the year"
That's another 8 months of carnage.
Shorts closing.
And MM have more stock than they want, so they raise the price midday to lure some more idiots in, thinking a bounce is on.
Q2 will be sore too, more of the same, wish a cash raise too. Double whammy.
I give them zero percent chance of FCF positive this year. Zero!
Larry, this is what happens when you try to charge more for cars, in a cost of living crisis.
Sales plummet.
Do you know why?
Because residuals are terrible, you've flooded the market with DBX and second hand prices are awful.
You roll out software for DB12 which simply doesn't work, now you're updating the WHOILE RANGE in 2024 with the same software.
THEY HAVE £229m cash available, the rest of the cash balance is actually debt/loans from banks.
Look at the reasons they raised cash in the past, to "cover all liabilities". Revolving credit facility is a liability.
Why do you find this so difficult to understand. You're either a paid poster trying obfuscate, or just stupid... Which one?
The last raise was announced at £4.40 and new shares were placed at £1.03.
The share price today is £1.37 and market cap £1.3bn, slightly above the net debt.
If they wanted to raise 500m with 4-1 offer, the offer price would be circa 35p.
You're an idiot, the cash levels are screaming "cash raise imminent" and you buy shares.
Stille = Noah, and they bought in a few months ago, now down on their gamble they pretend to "see value" in today's share price.
Don't trust a word of it.
Https://www.ft.com/content/e940dbf7-6021-482a-9c23-f3ae3f905731
Philippe Houchois, an automotive analyst at Jefferies, said the company was going through a “painful transition”, with a similar performance expected in the coming quarter as well.
Barclays analyst Henning Cosman said the business required “a fairly extreme hockey stick” in the second half of the year to hit its targets.