The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
£4.7m in November decayed to £1.5m at present, which means they’ve managed to lose over £3m in that period, even when subsidised by large increases in the health and nutrition business. Another similar period and they’ll have spent their entire overdraft facility, and any residual cash on the books. What then? Clearly large investors have no appetite for this company (can you blame them?) as evidenced by the failed placing. Then, imagine if the government win the right to payment? The only reassurance you have that they won’t is the word of the BOD. The same BOD who said billions of ABC-19 tests would be required. The same BOD who failed to submit the correct data to get their tests ratified. The same BOD who sold their shares at a high, then watched as the house of cards fell.
Genuine question, who do you think vetted the legal wording of the contract paperwork more robustly, the government with some of the best paid solicitors in the business, or a company who struggled to sell a covid test during a global pandemic? Food for thought…
Even the increasing revenues from Food intolerance can’t offset the rate at which this company burns cash. Only £1.5 million remaining? How far will that go when you consider the annual income of executive staff?
Still looking at options for fundraising, I imagine to ensure the gravy train continues to as far a destination as possible.
Extremely sad for PI’s, the way the BOD have taken investors for a ride verges on criminal.
Biker, didn’t you sell at a significant loss here, the day before buying back in at basically the same price and exclaiming it as a steal? Your credibility is in tatters on that proviso alone haha!
19/08/2021 @0.1825
‘Well I'm out can't lose anymore,absolutely gutted to sell as thought this was a gem but turned into a dog!’
20/08/2021 @0.175
I recently sold but made enough trading IMC to cover my loses plus a profit which I stuck back in here as this price is totally NUTS!
Very obtuse investment strategy, I must admit…
Hopefully seller has cleared and it’ll hold. Current seller still had quite a holding in the last notification.
Crossed fingers for flow results this week!
20pps would give a market cap of £228million, which, for such a small producer I don’t think is entirely realistic. I am, however, happy to be proven wrong. With a currently EBITDA $2.6m and expenditure of $3.5m the sp won’t move much, however I’m hoping that once all the investment is complete, capital expenditure will minimise and earning will rise, especially if, as per my previous post, artificial lift and sancrai are a success. With prices for natural gas rising sharply, this could mean excellent earnings progress in the coming years if Jeffrey can capitalise on this.
In my opinion, the two biggest obstacles suppressing the share price for SENX at present are well depletion and the recurrent need for drilling. Previously, we had issues with the overhang of placing shares, however considering the general volume since the placing, I no longer believe this to be of significant concern.
Personally, I’m most excited for news pertaining to the artificial lift systems, which, according to the last investor presentation should be imminent. So far Jeffrey has proven his ability to work to schedule and below budget, so theoretically if this project follows the same pattern, then one of the major concerns for SENX will be addressed. Artificial lift is fairly inexpensive to install and with natural gas prices increasing (and presumed to continue throughout winter), the sooner they can be installed, the better the chances of getting a much higher realised price for the additional gas produced.
As for the recurrent need for drilling, if the Sancrai reserve is proven and the flow rates are good, then this goes some way to addressing this problem.
Building somewhat on cash balance would be a good start for the company to entice new investors and steady the share price, which is why I’m hoping that following the artificial lift systems and the tie in of Sancrai (if successful), cash generation will improve, with little need for further investment for the time being.
Indeed, Very exciting times ahead. With such a small market cap, if the pieces slot together as intended, I can see this being a superb long term play.
I never doubted Jeffrey for a single second after scanning his CV following his appointment. He’s excelled in his position thus far, and I’m genuinely excited to see where he can take the company in the coming years.
Fantastic news. 19% under budget also. Great progress being made here!
'Where do you see the sp over the next few months?'
Deos, this question is barely worth asking as it's so subjective in nature. I hope you don't take offence to me saying this, but the share price prediction should be the figure at which you, individually arrive at as a result of your due diligence and valuation of the company.
Just because I tell you that I believe the share price will be X or Y, it doesn't substantiate those figures in the real world, hence the postings on these boards should be taken with more than just a pinch of salt.
I hope you don't take offence to me expressing this, however skim reading your previous posts paints a stark picture of your approach to equity investing. You already testify to making significant losses on this share, don't let your emotional affiliation with this share lead to this becoming a recurring theme. Whilst the price of this share may increase significantly throughout the course of time, it should be your individual research, and that alone, which underpins your investment decisions.
If you're looking for some brilliant resources on valuation methodology, Aswath Damodaran has uploaded his entire course (ordinarily taught at NYU) for free on Youtube, which might be of use to you. It's many hours of viewing, however it'll provide you with a firm foundation on which to better ascertain the value of an equity.
Reviewing your previous posts, you claim to have sold at a 30k loss at £4.50. Just interested to know how you ended up with a £5.5 average? Did you buy back in shortly after materialising a loss?
Personally, I can’t see NCYT returning to its previous highs unless it’s relationship with the UK gov becomes more amicable, which, judging from the impending court case, is somewhat far fetched. Although cases are rising, the predominant age ranges affected are all from low risk groups, therefore hospitalisations are predicted to remain flat. At the NHS trust in which I currently work, hospitalisations are negligible, despite being one of the worst hit Acute Hospitals during both waves of the pandemic. Procurement have significantly increased accessibility to a more diverse range of tests from an ever expanding number of providers, with the sector becoming seemingly more squeezed due to heightened competition.
Without product diversification into non-covid markets, I struggle to see how Novacyt can maintain its relevance. As foreign markets become more self sufficient, I can see the avenues for making profits from covid diminishing significantly.
‘This will fly on Monday’
Considering it’s a bank holiday, no, it won’t.
This is coming from the very same guy who wrote:
‘Last chance to get in now pussios’ when the sp was 19.7p. It would be laughable if not so tragic.
Timmycoles, with all due respect your post history paints a bleak picture of your ability to make correct calls.
What happened to the 70p+ ‘Shoe in’ you kept iterating?
This share is a gamble at this point, no two ways about it.
Bullish as I am, christ, just stop already.
No problem at all, glad to help.
In terms of short term pricing, who knows, but keep in mind there is still a material risk that the SOA will be rejected and Amigo will therefore begin the insolvency process. This is the main inherent risk as far as I can see. I view this entire saga extremely similarly to CINE during the height of the Covid crisis. There was much material uncertainty about the future of the company, which at one point seemed like it would manifest as its complete demise; with the creditors stripping what they could and the shareholders nursing their wounds. Rather ironically, the share price at this point was 25pps. With their successful restructuring of debt and the assurance of continued operations, they very quickly rose in price and are currently sitting at 94pps (from highs of 120pps) at the time of typing this.
Back to Amigo. If the SOA is approved, I believe it could catalyse a similar change in sentiment towards the share. At this point, it's a complete guess. Of the people I've asked, most have said that they would agree to the SOA, based on the fact that even a small material gain in wealth is better than nothing at all. Of the aforementioned, however, none are previous customers of Amigo, therefore situationally it's difficult to generalise the results.
If a person had a particularly resentment towards Amigo, they may well feel inclined to reject the SOA out of disdain for the company itself. Revenge is a very visceral trait of being human, and I do believe there will be a number of people who exercise this option, as opposed to accepting the small goodwill gesture offered by Amigo. My confidence is rallied by the continued buying from institutions, however, if we're led to believe that the market is a level playing field (yeah, right), then they know no more than you and I about the current progress of the SOA.
Strap in for the ride, but only with money you wouldn't be too bitter to see lost in its entirety. Good luck all, I'll be strapped in with you on the 12th!
To put it succinctly:
- Late April until May 10th is the window for online responses to the proposed SOA.
- May 12th is the Creditors meeting where we should find out whether the scheme has passed the vote.
- May 19th is the second court sitting (following the first sitting March 30th) where the final decision will be made.
In terms of the FCA, the board are still actively engaging with them, so I'm guessing news will flow later down the line, following the court ruling on the SOA.
Hope this helps somewhat.
Anybody remember around the same time a chap who went by the name fatbloke? He gambled his daughters wedding fund on AMGO and was down pretty heavily. Hope he made it though, he seemed like a really genuine individual, haven’t seen him posting here for a while, mind you.
With the antigen LFT seemingly (very nearly) signed off, what about our other revenue streams?
Do we anticipate any further orders of ABC-19, in light of the recent scrutiny of Abingdon? I personally think antibody testing is still relevant, however its prevalence and usefulness will prove itself in the latter stages of the pandemic (population surveillance / research epidemiology).
Anybody have a bullish predisposition on the UK RTC/ABC-19?
I was literally about to ask the same thing!
His mannerisms and behaviour are an exact match. Although, he's yet to use the word 'boomtastic' and promise 'easy money', so I remain sceptical.
'Triple digit rise tomorrow'
Stop being such a pessimist, this has quintuple rise written all over it! Furthermore, sources also suggest that Colin has agreed to don a kilt and perform a personal lap dance on each and every ODX investor, in lieu of future dividends (obviously).
A nuclear 63p or an open of £1? Dear god, I'm seriously hoping these comments were satire...
Why not throw all rational thought out of the window? My calculations indicate a £6 open tomorrow, based on a contract dated December and the repetitive basing of my head off a calculator. If Zengah wasn't too busy counting his losses on ARB, I'm sure he'd certify the literality of my predictions. DYOR.