Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Had several top ups this week, but it's tempting to bag another few shares before close. We don't know when news will come, what the news will be, but I do know that with the TU we just had the current sp is cheap as.
Only issue with the TU was around the full year revenue, which seems more like an error in previous forecasting than anything, as the previous forecast didn't seem to factor in the effect (although I guess that's hard to do) of the lost business which caused the share price drop in the first place.
"the Board expects that the Group will return to revenue growth for the second half of the financial year resulting in a likely full year outturn of approximately £50.5m for the year ending 31 July 2020 (as compared to the Board's expectations prior to the announcement of the FSP of £53.5m)"
To reach £50.5m for full year would mean £26m for second half of year, which shows significant progress on the £24.5m for first 6 months, about 6% increase. Happy with that progress.
Not everyone... 170k shares (£90k) buy @ 53p just shown up on HL website. Went through about 10:20ish... Someone is very confident as I am.
I think the current shareprice is only a reflection of the complete lack of info coming out of Proactis. This isn't a criticism either, during a FSP a complete lack of info is to be expected. We've had no significant changes in the sp which would indicate any sort of leak, just a drift downwards which is in a large part due to the L&G sell off (which seems to have been part of a wider strategy for them) and probably also due to doubt creeping into some investors minds and general impatience. I also think that since Tim took over last year his focus has been on the medium-long term growth of the company and not on trying to prop up the sp in the short term by RNSing every bit of news which could have a positive spin... again a little frustrating for us all in the short term but I take it as a positive sign that the board aren't in panic mode looking to try and put positive spin on every bit of news. But my point is really that the current sp is purely a reflection of the lack of info. The perception that the sp is here as a result of the market somehow reflecting the likelihood of a deal or positive half year update is wrong in my mind. As a result, I don't any offer which comes through would necessarily relate at all to the current share price.
Agree traveller, I can't see 65-75p washing. I wouldn't be accepting a bid in that range, would rather hold for long term, though I would think it suggests that we need a leadership shake up if the current team think that is good value. We paid significantly more than that for perfect alone, so we would be offering someone a discount on perfect (understandable considering it hasn't performed ideally since the takeover) but also our UK and European business effectively for free. That price point makes no sense. We shouldn't mistake the current market cap for fair value, the market cap is only a reflection of the market confidence which is low due to the news this time last year and the lack of news since. But it is not a reflection of the value of the company. Firstly on the open market you couldn't buy it for anywhere near that and secondly, if we received an rns tomorrow with details of a few new big name customers the price would likely double even if the impact to revenue of the new customers was say only 5%. So the board will know the value of the company and that's why if there is an offer I expect it to be north of £1.
Looks like people may blame him for last year's drop.
Been over a year now since Tim has been at the top, there has been nothing solid since then to show that the company is bouncing back. There are some positive indications but no significant confirmed signs of recovery. Shareholders both pi's and most ii's have show a great deal of patience, but a year in I think we need to see some clear signs that the strategy is working.
Topped up more this afternoon, I expect the coming month to be positive for the proactis share price. Firstly I expect the FSP to be concluded and secondly there has been a number of good news stories over the past few months which have had little impact on the share price but for me they indicate good progress under the new strategy. I get the impression things are progressing well, but the board are reluctant to release too much info until the FSP is concluded one way or another. I expect they will not be putting all their eggs in the FSP basket and will be keen to ensure that they have sufficient positive news to push the share price back to where it should be even if a deal isn't agreed.
https://www.proactis.com/uk/company/news/2020/january/aphp-streamline-purchase-to-pay-with-proactis/
Think the last of l&g might just have gone through!
https://www.proactis.com/uk/company/news/2020/january/proactis-fiscal-technologies-join-forces/
If one of the big Investor who will have been consulted during the FSP is taking shares at this price then that's good enough for me, I've added a small amount and will try to free up more cash to add further.
The l&g selling is not normal behaviour for an ii invested in a company in this position. If they knew something we didn't and wanted to sell they would be out far quicker. If they were here as a genuine investment I would expect they would take the position of all other iis, which is to await the outcome of the FSP. So, if we look at what their selling has done over past month or so, it has really just kept the share price in the 45 - 53ish range. I can only imagine that they are operating on someone's behalf to control the share price and prevent pi's from pushing the price up and possibly causing a spike if the herd arrived.
The bit I like about the hidden statement is "The Board has
carefully reviewed each of the expressions of interest and has concluded that the EOIs are from credible potential buyers and at a price level that shareholders could find attractive." First time we have had any mention of the price tag, but putting this together with the following comments "This has involved not only reflecting on value, in which regard the Board are grateful for the guidance provided by major shareholders" gives me comfort that we won't get low balled as the major shareholders have advised on a suitable price and there seems to still be a number of players remaining on the park with this price in mind!
Can't see it being sub £1. The iis have been consulted as per today's statement, can't see them accepting sub £1.
I got my top up in at 51p. Positive info from the company today, guessing that it'll be the new year before we hear anything, but this could get very exciting so worth the slight risk in averaging up.