Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I got the same opinion. I read that presentation so many times now with all the details given its a pleasure. Fingers crossed for a successful appraisal! On a different note: Two large supply ships are now circling the West Phoenix (one Norwegian and one British). I hope that is a good sign that she moves soon to Ragnfrid North to begin with the Statoil/Equinor drilling campaign.
According to Marinetraffic she is still at Guillemot Oil field. This sidetrack well was scheduled for a minimum of 30 days and started around 4th of June - so hopefully they make good progress there because Ragnfrid North (1st Statoil/Equinor drill) comes after that one. Fingers crossed all goes smooth!
Perfect - another box ticked for us on the road. Things all seem to go well and as prognosed one step at a time. Now lets hope the results are promising and helpful...we will get the whole news in q1/2019 as announced earlier in the year. All eyes on Verbier from here on as A.Benitz said and nothing else counts as much as the appraisal well program...feeling very positive...only a few more months until countdown...exciting!
I agree with JAS78. Statoil/Equinor always planned the four well program to be 4-5 months in total starting in q3 according to the RNS (which is the only thing you should go by as that's from the company which makes the decisions). If Norway and Verbier would be already 120 days/4 months combined (80+40) they would not leave enough time for drill 3 and 4 on the UKCS without getting into full winter. So I assume the 80 days (if that figure actually comes from Statoil - I have not seen it being mentioned in an updated rns from them directly only some news articles) is a theoretical figure and believe sometime in August will be the beginning of Verbier appraisal. In regards to the share price - it will come down to the appraisal result and as the number of barrels of oil can vary up to a factor 4 to 5 so will be the share price. Anywhere between GBP3-12 is realistic in case of a successful appraisal program. I think the NPV in the JOG management presentation is spot on and is aligned with analyst opinions and I will stick with the experts in that case. So fingers crossed for a successful drill that is all that counts 4-6 weeks sooner or later doesn't matter in this case...and don't forget how exciting the Cortina prospect will become in case of a Verbier success plus the 3D seismic on top of that...they really found black gold in that Trap Oil desk when they bought them out and went through the assets...
Maybe they test run the thrusters...I think that was one of the jobs on the repair and maintenance list. Hopefully a good sign that work progress is going well and on time...they were expecting 2 months work duration and the rig arrived beginning/mid april. The first stop is Ragnfrid North license on the Norwegian Continental Shelf.
Nice article Cebo. I agree - everything in relation to West Phoenix has been published and planned for months now and every serious investor would have been aware of it...scheduled maintenance and repairs should be finished by mid June and I see it as an advantage having a rig available that just went through these checks etc as it will be more reliable. As Statoil stated beginning 1st Norway drill in July then off to Verbier (assuming that will be roughly in August). JOG confirmed 30-40 days drill time for the whole appraisal well programme so by September we should get first results. And we all keep our fingers crossed for them! The share price beforehand is purely speculation and short term trading which is an easy game for MMs etc and indeed does not matter at all. Stick with the fundamentals and real news as that will determine the actual value and rerating of the company. Good luck all holders!
Although there is always two sides to the oil price in relation to the JOG story I am convinced that a balanced and stabil oil market with prices of Brent between $65-90 is very supportive for us and helps with a bright outlook for the next 1-3 years. Of course all eyes are on Verbier and the forthcoming appraisal well program and I keep all fingers crossed for a successful outcome which will unlock the potentials of the company step by step! Very exciting. Here an interesting read from Morgan Stanley about future oil price development with an angle I wasn't aware of... https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/16/oil-to-hit-90-in-2020-on-diesel-jet-fuel-demand-morgan-stanley.html
Interesting interview with Statoil CEO today on Bloomberg...a bullish outlook for oil and gas exploration from their side - an interesting and reassuring interview for me. Their break even for Oil is now down to $20 per barrel... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2018-05-04/expanding-into-renewable-energy-statoil-ceo-saetre-says-video
I think first of all shares, especially AIM and those with very little free floating shares, never act rationally and most experts agree that JOG is already based on 25 million barrels undervalued - but that is just the market setting the price. 2nd the 2.60 was the rise towards the drill and of course most people were hoping oil wound be discovered so the sp was driven up by speculation and buys from hopefuls...same will probably happen this year pre appraisal drill. 3rd and most importantly is that the shares were diluted when they raised close to 24 million gbp as 12 million shares were released. But this shouldn't worry anyone. Lets see what the appraisal program brings. Good luck!
The survey has already been mentioned earlier in the year as planned and so were the costs of it...all part of the capex for this year and within the budget so great management and news flow. For me it just ticks of another box along the way. It also corresponds well with the interview of Andrew Benitz (Malcy) where he mentions that there are further options for prospects beyond Verbier, Cortina and Meribel so they believe there is even more in the ground on the licenced block which is great news for the future outlook and value of the company. The survey is important for further prospects and of course development at a later stage and goes hand in hand with the appraisal program of Verbier as the information gathered from both is crucial for successful exploration programs. Results for Verbier summer 2018 and survey q1 2019 - perfect timing for the exploration of Cortina! Fingers crossed for a successful appraisal program of Verbier as that will be the key to unlock the potential of the licence. But I believe with two very professional companies working together (Statoil and JOG) our future is in good hands. Good luck all holders!
Agree with you and on top coming MM action which influences the sp at least over the short term quite significantly which is easy if you got almost no shares available. For example I kept increasing my longterm hold yesterday twice by the same share amount within 10mins from each other. Both substantial sums considering the volume per day. One showed as a sell and the other one has not even been showing up yet although it was purchsed by midday. Not that it matters to me but gives an idea what they can do. Would have bought earlier but koney only became available yesterday. I wonder if the current raise is already pre appraisal drill action or just a blip...I didn't expect anything until July / August in that regard. Good luck all holders.
Although the Dow dropped over 400 points in the afternoon session Oil prices were defying the trade war fears...lets hope the Analysts are correct this time whci would support PFC on his recovery journey...interesting read from Bloomberg: Morgan Stanley also cited an expected pick-up in seasonal demand in the coming months. "We are only three-four weeks away from peak refinery maintenance, after which crude and product demand should accelerate ... Global inventories are already at the bottom end of the five-year range," the U.S. bank said. "There are sufficient reasons to expect oil prices to strengthen further from here, and we stick with our (Brent) $75 per barrel call for Q3," Morgan Stanley said. Goldman Sachs said in a note this week demand and OPEC cuts pushed their Brent spot price expectations to $82.50 a barrel by mid-year. Good luck all holders!
Morgan Stanley also cited an expected pick-up in seasonal demand in the coming months. Although the dow dropped again over 400 points in the afternoon oil prices were defying the trad war fears which gives some more confidence looking forward to the next few months...interesting read of Analysts about oil prices from this evening (source Bloomberg): "We are only three-four weeks away from peak refinery maintenance, after which crude and product demand should accelerate ... Global inventories are already at the bottom end of the five-year range," the U.S. bank said. "There are sufficient reasons to expect oil prices to strengthen further from here, and we stick with our (Brent) $75 per barrel call for Q3," Morgan Stanley said. Goldman Sachs said in a note this week demand and OPEC cuts pushed their Brent spot price expectations to $82.50 a barrel by mid-year. These sort of outlooks would push the value of an appraised Verbier up massively so I keep my fingers crossed for a very successful appraisal campaign!
During quiet waiting times I find it interesting and in this case soothing to read articles from our closest neighbours like the old Buchan Oil field which is wedged in between Verbier and Cortina. Especially the development part over the past 30-40 years and how it grew through difficult times from a little oil field of 50 million barrels to over 150 million today due to new technologies/science/engineering felt encouraging. Enjoy the read...good luck all holders! en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buchan_Oil_Field
Since we are in a very quiete period of news at the moment, some thoughts about the duration of our Verbier appraisal campaign and the estimated duration of it/expected date for the results of it. Maybe someone with industry knowledge can comment on this? According to Statoils RNS the West Phoenix will start in the 3rd quarter (assuming July, otherwise they run into winter) with the planned 4 drilling campaigns (Norway×1, UK×3) but estimates only 4-5 months for all of them combined. This only gives them about 5 weeks for each incld. relocation time. I was always under the impression that an appraisal drill takes at least 2 months. Am I wrong in thinking this or are these 6th generation rigs just much faster in achieving their targets? If they roughly start sometime in August with Verbier we might get some first results of the appraisal in September? I am a long term holder of JOG and see great potential and excitement for the next 2 years fully trusting management and capability of Statoil as operator - looking forward to this key appraisal programme...it would be transformational for JOG and investors if Verbier gets fully appraised towards the higher range. Good luck all and I am looking forward to your thoughts.
Thanks Grewber-amazing interview which left me feeling very positive. I like his approach and being sensitive to various matters which are also extremely important to us shareholders but you could feel his excitement about Verbier and the whole licence and how much it will be worth for the company and ultimately us investors. Happy to stay invested and looking forward to the summer appraisal programme! GLA