Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Good post Dick! As far as I am aware results of the 31st round will be Q3 so we will have an interesting flow of news over the next 3 months with AGM, 3D Seismic plus evaluating these with the well results and all other sources plus results of the licencing round. who will be our new neighbours? From the OGA podcast it certainly looks like a lot of collaboration throughout major and minor players is the desired outcome making not just development and production but also exploration cheaper and faster = more efficient! This ultimately will make even smaller discoveries commercial...
I think there is still an II selling off Ajax driving the price down towards the cash value...looking at the amounts of shares being sold in numbers like 25k, 10k, 50k, 5k lead me to this conclusion. Schroders doesn't have to provide any more details since being below 5% but even at that level they still had just under a million shares left and if they kept selling it would explain the slow drop. Not sure if I am right or wrong but it just makes the most sense. I am still positive and wait for the news in the next 2-3 months and then we will see what the next step is.
I guess we will have to wait and see who estimated it the closest...shouldn't be long now before we get the official details...fingers crossed. Oil prices are steady around $72ish which supports our wider market amd is significant. It will also be very interesting to see how many companies or conglomerates were bidding in the 31st licencing round for the blocks around P2170. It should be a good indicator for the general value of it because at the end of the day the GBPs and Dollars they are willing to spend reflects their real interest and future they see in the Buchan area. High interest and lots of bidders would be great news for us in my opinion due to the underlying idea of the OGA of creating multi companies hubs and production platforms...this would make even smaller discoveries commercial due to the shared costs of the expensive infrastructure. Of course I am still hopeful and believe that Verbier reserves can be proven higher than the min. 25million barrels through another appraisal drill to the northeast and the possibility of a stacked discovery based on the deeper horizon they just unearthed. According to Arden approx 60 million would be necessary for a standalone which is still in reach. Below that a tie back would be viable and considering that the 10 year well in the neighbouring block was already discovered, appraised and successfully flow tested at 11000bpod one could assume a multi company hub between these two already makes it commercial. And lets not forget the Cortina prospect, Meribel lead and all the other possible prospects they might find when the 3d seismic comes through. Lots to play with and an interesting 12 months ahead. I stay positive.
It should be higher noix. Last report was about 22 million and capex guidance was 7-10 million but the appraisal came in under budget so anywhere from 12-15 is my best guess and that of some analysts too. Still cannot believe that some people still selling at a price close to cash reserve (not even including the GBP25 million tax credits for production worth approx GBP15 million to any takeover company, plus Verbier discovery plus all the rest...could go on). Looks like institutions closing their positions. Time for positive news.
Hahaha Noix...they asked me not to share insider knowledge or I would go for 7 years to prison :) First time I got one of them but seems to be going around. I feel humbled that they assume I got insider knowledge but all I posted was a BBC article about Chrysaor buying assets in the North Sea and bbaaammm there was the message.
Wolfson I think you brought your points across. Instead of repeating them here continuously and getting more and more abusive towards BOD's, Malcy and others why don't you address them directly to the company (contacts on the website), face to face at the AGM or in a written motion? As a shareholder you do have rights and lets see what the response will be?
Things keep moving in the North Sea, Chryasor keeps shopping for assets, we live in very dynamic times and you never know who is going on a shopping spree... https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-47975042
These 2 trade extensions were very interesting after hours...1.5 million shares from one buyer is a heavy load to diggest for a small company...lots to come in the next few weeks. The other interesting bit is that these investors are connected with each other and one could only assume other investors might be interested in why Mr G. invests so heavily here in JOG and might look also deeper into this investment opportunity. Good luck all holders and have a Happy Easter weekend!
Not sure if this was posted here already...found it on the other board...new investor seems to be able to sniff out a bargain when he sees one... https://www.marketscreener.com/business-leaders/Richard-Griffiths-05J8QH-E/biography/ Onwards and upwards please Mr G.!
Well a lot has been said in the last few days about the BOD, Malcy and possible mistakes that have been made in the past which is looking back a very easy thing to do especially in times of frustration. But I just wanted to pick up on a few things and put them also in perspective and hope this helps all holders as it generally helps me when some panic sets in. Yes Malcy isn't always right but lets be honest who is? And certainly we cannot blame him for a dry appraisal well that no one expected. Yes he was very enthusiastic about it like AB was and certainly it looks now a bit cocky and over confident. At the same time Malcy highlighted JOG already in Oct16 when the share price was about 30pence and in Oct17 we reached 399 pence thats 1200% guys! Yes since then we fell back and we all know why: 1 single dry well! So what has changed? Confidence turned from eagerly positive to ultimately negative correct? This in combination with Oil business and AIM results in crazy share movements. I remember when I followed Petrofac that fell from graze crashing from GBP10 to 3.5 due the bribery allegations and the combination of lower oil prices. They got crashed and although a multibillion pound company in good condition lots of critics called the end of the company due to loss of trust in the board and management. 6-12 months later they were back at 6.5 only to crash again to 4 due to the same issue...now back over 5. I know JOG isn't Petrofac but I think you get my point. The purchase of producing assets failed miserably so far, as far as I know we got outbid on several occasions and in hindsight we should have been more aggressive that is true but at the time AB stated that growing just for the sake of growing(meaning overpaying for producing assets) isn't healthy for the company and they wanted to avoid dilution-both sensible correct? But now it would be great to have that income - also correct. So lets focus on what we have. Close to GBP15 million in the bank, Verbier discovery recoverable min.25 million barrels with upside depending on the reservoir distribution in the northwest corner and a new deep horizon below that as well (these might be done together in an appraisal well and deeper exploration well). Cortina prospect that is possibly bigger than Verbier and with the new 3D seismic hopefully derisked for an exploration, the rest of the license block with new possible prospects, GBP25 million in tax credits for producing assets in the future, a new licensing round and a very eager OGA pushing for a multi company hub in the Greater Buchan area which in itself would make Verbier commercial. So the dry well was a huge setback, we all agree but there is also massive upside amd it all comes down to the partners and the valuation and assessment of the block. Fingers crossed they come to a positive conclusion in the next few months and get a new drilling campaign on the way. A positive statement from Equinor would certainly help massively but we know
Brent over $72 now. Seems to get more consistent and in line with opec expectations...about $17 more per barrel since the Verbier discovery in Oct17. This rise alone increased the value of our minimum 4.5 million barrels (18% of 25 million) by approx GBP58 million...quite staggering isn't it...the share price then reached an intraday high of Gbp 3.99 and closed the day at 3.26ish.
I guess the share price drop yesterday highlighted the fact that a lot of short term investors were still hoping for a sidetrack and when that didn't happen they decided to leave the market. The drop we have seen in the last 12 days is no different than the rise from Oct 17 when we went up by 600-700% in 2 days due to a successfully sidetrack. This is the AIM market and nothing new really. As a long term holder I try to focus on the facts and outlook for the next 2 years or so. The facts are that we almost reached the cash value of the company (assuming we still got 12-15 million GBP in the bank (we will find out soon how much exactly is left). So right now the market considers Verbier (with upwards of 25million barrels, probably 25 to 69) as zero value, Cortina as zero value and the rest of the license as zero value, the GBP 25 million tax credits also as zero value. Everyone have to judge for themselves if that is true. I personally believe its not and that the market will realize that sooner or later as well and then we see a gradual rise again towards what is considered a fair value. Verbier is still a valid discovery and a further appraisal well in the next 12 months that could be combined with a Cortina exploration can bring exactly that to light. What the rest of the license holds will be found out once the 3d seismic has been analized. Equinor has the WP booked through til Dec19 with options through til Mar20 so getting a rig wouldn't be an issue. The other opportunity for Verbier is of course that a hub development (between different producers) in the Greater Buchan area will make it also commercial as the OGA supports that idea and emphasizes the next licensing rounds. We will see how big the interest will be. With enough money thrpugh til mid/end of 2020 (depending on the amounts of drills) JOG is well funded, has no debt and maybe the BOD will show some more financial interest un personally stocking up on available shares to support the price per share. I keep holding and top up when I can. Good luck all holders!