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I am on board with most long term holders here and frustration/dissapointment is understandable and justified. But is there anything we can do at this stage except buying/selling/holding? Noap! But analyzing we can to make the best decision possible. Of course if we are right or wrong will only be determined by the outcome of the sales/farm out process. In the meantime lets discuss some thoughts which might make the wait more pleasant.
I personally was stunned how quick the placing of shares was filled, I mean 15 million pound for a small company within a few hours being oversubscribed is quite an achievement and I wonder why that is. Mind you that we had a leak just before the placing (so information makes the round quickly). Do they know something we don't? Have rumours made the round about the one or the other company already showing interest in a farm in or buy out of JOG and someone with insider knowledge on their side passed on some sneaky info? No one can afford to loose money and they been piling it into JOG very confidently and there is a reason for that. If they would have had any concerns they wouldn't have done it. I am not saying that this is what happened but it was just a thought that crossed my mind linking the leak with the placing with our assets and being oversubscribed within hours.
What are your thoughts?
I have to say that last rns suprirised me, oversubscribed within hours is very impressive and shows the market believes a lot in JOGs story. We migtht got diluted but at the same time this money is an investment thst goes a long way and will see us through the process of of the sales and farm out and driving the GBA forward. Onwards and upwards!
As I stated before I believe the leaking of confidential information forced management to show their hand. They must have been in early discussions about a placing sometime this year to be prepared for the exact reasons they are stating in todays rns. I firmly believe it was not planned or scheduled so early this year but further down the line at a higher share price and the leak targeted the company to do severe damage ie an early share price fall of over 25% and now only being able to ask for 165p in the placing, which hurt and waters the sharws down more than necessary so this was malicious. This is very painfull to watch and JOG deserved to do this properly meaning the launch of the Sales and Farm out process as well as the placing on their own terms and not being forced by a filthy leach leaking out information. I hope they can get the culprit sooner than later!
On the other hand, does a farm in partner or a company wanting to buy the lot really care about a placing and some dilution? No they don't, as they are interested in the oil and what is attached to it and nothing else. So the main focus is now bringing this to market, and I am sure Management will focus on exactly that as they are also heavily invested here and their share options are worth nothing if this doesn't come good but worth millions if they can pull it off. So AB and Team : Go for Gold, I am backing you 100%
I also do think that leaking information shouldn't happen but where there is people involved it just will, usually someone trying to make a quick buck out of greed and on the back of share holders. This leading to a very rushed RNS causing a stir is frustrating especially since it spoiled the official launch of the farm out which is what we are all been waiting for...every serious investor and LTH wanted to start this with a positive outlook not a stomach ache. These were my first thoughts and feelings today. But after sitting back and thinking about it I can see that the 'discussion' about doing a placing is understandable and the argument of having a full war chest to keep things moving and peace of mind during possible (and hopefully many) negotiations is a good argument. Please bear in mind that nothing happened yet, they only discussing it and so they should, evaluate all avenues is the job of management too! Also do not forget that Management Shares and Options will be watered down as well not just ours so they wouldn't do anything that is bad for JOG but only moves that drive it forward into the right direction. The other thought is that any placing (or possible placing to be correct) also invites companies of all sorts and institutional investors to come onto the table at discounted terms opening up new doors as well. Just a thought and nothing happened yet.
Yes indeed another good interview thanks for sharing...did anyone spot something in the print media? This time AB used the word imminent when it came to the farmout so anytime now and although its a pre announced event we knew it was coming its still a significant milestone showcasing the development of the company over the years. The farm out process will take time as companies will not rush this, although highly economic and as low risk as any oil development can be its still a big undertaking so I am prepared for 6 months waiting during which anything can happen. A buy out would of course speed this up massively and I would be happy to support it for as long as there is a good shareholder value and I am sure that management, accounting for 10% of the shares and a few more options, look at it the same way. So all doors are open...let the showdown begin! Good luck all holders.
Great Rns and another milestone completed as forecasted. Sounds like an ambitious concept that also might excite governments especially nowadays when they find it difficult selling oil and gas to the public so we might be lucky and get some tailwind from an unexpected side.
The malcy write up was also very good and highlights the importance of the gba and the jog story. Does the market see it yet? No not yet, they are still waiting for further assurance, which isn't a drama just reality until the big bang happens and the board is overflowing again ;)
Good luck all holders!
Interesting podcast, thanks for posting!
Looks like Oil is on the up again. Not long now before they announce the final Concept Select Report to the OGA and March is just around the corner too with the Sale and Farm out process knocking down doors...good times ahead.
Oil broke through the $65 mark. Great support for the next steps. Concept Select goes to the OGA in the next few weeks, then in March launch of the Sales and Farm Out process. We will have a jam packed 6 weeks ahead of us and then it really gets interesting to see who and how many companies bite. Oil and Gas business at its best...exciting days...good luck all holders!
Oil at $61.44 this morning, things falling into place for JOG and the future of the company. Their hard work and expertise in the Oil and Gas sector is now starting to pay off as the timing is perfect. Until end of Q1 we will most certainly see a nice generous uptick as investors taking their seats and stocking up their portfolios with expectation of sale/farm in/investment news throughout Q2 and Q3. The million or better billion question will be who and how many are interested. Your guess is as good as mine and we will certainly experience a rollercoaster of investment-emotions over the next 6-7 months. I keep my fingers crossed for all investors and still after more than 3 years believe firmly in the management.
Abatt - I think lots of lth (like myself) are just a bit quieter as they know what they are waiting for and the current updates are cementing this. Everything is going to plan at this stage which is pretty stunning work by Management given the circumstances of the oil and gas industry globally. Exciting 6 months ahead I'd say...good luck all lth's.
I just watched the AGM presentation again, things I do from time to time to remind myself about the quality I invested in :)
I copied the link to the mp4 video file here for anyone interested that hasn't seen it or needs some reassurance.
I like the lot of it but especially when Andrew speaks about the various options of Financing as well as regional collaborations between the neighbouring companies and licenses blocks. We are bamg on on the timeline and the next 10 months will be jam packed with various news. Some will be updates, some could be potential game changers - exciting times to hold JOG.
Good luck all holders!
https://www.jerseyoilandgas.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/AGM-2020-audio-presentation4-1.mp4
Good to see a nice upbeat movement starting into q3. Its as I hoped and for now and without additional news I would expect the usual 200-300p mark within the next 6 months in anticipation of positive news as mentioned by Dick earlier. One of the other news I would like to add onto that list, and I am not sure if it has been mentioned before, is the result of the analysis how a cooperation with our immediate 2 neighbours can affect the GBA project. I would see it as a big chance if the group could work together and so did the OGA in their statement when it was announced. We will see what the outcome is of that.
Once positive news hits the market the sky is the limit and I would think around 500-600p (conservative estimates from analysts) is on the cards to start up with. From then on a steady climb depending on the farm out, financing, buy out offer etc with 1000-2000p being a realistic tarket for the next 12-24 months if things go to plan which I believe is very possible.
All very positive - good luck all lth!
Good afternoon Dick. Yes sorry I haven't posted recently which doesn't mean I haven't followed this board, but as we all know during crisis times and hype times a lot of people posting with not too much substance and as there weren't any relevant news or updates I followed quietly.
Nice to see the slight upswing in share price although its only an adjustment to the beating we received following the drop in oil price as well as Covid19. Nothing changed in my holding as I still believe in the company and management. I believe things will stabilize further with a couple of setbacks as usual alomg the way focusing on our 'normal' GBP2 per share price until we hopefully get news of a farm out or interest of an oil major in buying us out altogether. With the financials pretty much what we expected lasting 'at least til end of 2021' we got plenty of time to focus on the ongoing work commitments and then towards end of 2020 the farm out process. The cooperation with other oil companies in our area is particular exciting in my view as it would help making any developments more cost effective and efficient and the OGA was very happy to hear about it too.
With oil prices expected to recover somewhat by end of 2020 I believe this will be a good time to start this project as we need oil above 50 dollars a barrel, better towards 60.
In regards to the renumeration- I was contemplating for a bit if or if not not to comment. While I agree that a payrise of over 50% is a bit too extreme, and I would have rather gone down the road of doing 15% a year over a 3 year period or similar, their salaries are still at the lower end of their piers or mid range at best. So I reckon it was an adjustment to what is more normal in the industry and GBP250.000 isn't that much really but you are right Dick, the timing could have been better. but I think when the renumeration committee decided they did not expect what was coming at the time when they made that decision.
I think we got a pretty good outlook for the rest of the year - onwards and upwards!
Bit of profit taking this afternoon after the first initial rise before the long weekend is kind of normal. Lets see what opec+ g20 can or cannot hammer out over the next 2 days will be interesting. It would be about time that all producing countries come together and show the world that they can stabilize the ship in the interest of everyone as a pricewar doesn't help anyone. At least that way the supply side would do its part...fixing the corona issue will sort out the demand side. Yes these things can take some time but good things I can wait for and the management is working in the background on all the necessary ground work to take this to the next level or levels if you like! Happy to hold and watch...happy easter to all holders!
If RG still holds just below 3% (so below 600.000 shares) then there might be a few left that he wants to get rid of...reckon he needs to balance some accounts these days...these constant sells won't let the share price recover for now, even at good news of oil prices rising 20% in a day...guess we will have to wait a bit longer. Once he has dumped the rest of his holdings and improving oil / business in the future we should be on track for a steady recovery. In the meantime a professional management team is working in the background to secure farm outs and financing and ground work for GBA i am sure.