Long Term Punt ... be my PAL !7 Jan 2011 13:08
As anyone who is reading this doubtless knows the market and the demand for palm oil is set to grow. This, together with land shortages in Malaysia and Indonesia, plus pressure from the environmental lobby to preserve rain forests; must surely bolster Equatorial Palm Oil's position. Afterall, they are in Africa not Asia, and have plans to develop a large sustainable acreage of palm oil plantation. All these factors make PAL a good bet ... long term of course, because let's not forget that from planting the typical palm gestation period is around 4 to 5 years.
However, the real wild card in all this for me is two fold. Firstly we have the political situation in Liberia which, in fairness, is infinately better than it has been for a long time but is still thought by many to be 'fragile'. Personally I think the acid test will be the forthcoming general election in October 2011 - if Ellen Sirleaf is re-elected I think this will be a positive thing for PAL and hopefully the country as a whole. We will see. The second issue is PAL itself, in particular its financials. At their current rate of 'cash burn' PAL estimates they will need another significant cash injection in around 2 years fom now in order to see them through until they can become self financing in around 5 or 6 years time. So, if Liberia remains stable, if PAL's crops bear fruit and PAL can make it trhough the next 5 years then I think this share is a really really good long term bet. But its definately not for the risk averse !.Good luck PAL !.