Member Info for Bubblepoint

I think you will find anyone with a modest punt here will have read the accounts, we KNOW what is in there.

WE know they have a lot of work still to do to instil any faith or confidence, I have ALSO said I maintain my reservations, anyone with half a brain can see things are still far from transparent and that this is still by far a difficult outfit to understand, BUT I also think you will find the remaining punters still in this outfit are, like me, willing to see how much of this year pans out, good, bad or darn right ugly, and for sure there will be a few claymore's planted about that need navigating. WE ARE NOT BLIND !!!

Chillax, enjoy the rest of the weekend, your not even in the stock, so you got absolutely nowt to concern yourself about.

As for your previous post, all I can say is ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

AND as SAID WG, WE ALL know what WAS, and what was published UP TO SEPT last year.

I think YOU will find EVERYONE here has read & write capability.

Seems to me that you lot from the darkside feel a need to keep rehashing info that is in the public domain for ALL to see & absorb, but you lot just keep regurgitating the SAME old info and bile !!

If an oil company drills a duster, does that make them a bad company ? one not to be trusted or touched, were they just unlucky, ? did they make some mistakes in their geo studies ? did they cut corners that led to this ? should you run a mile? or should you take it for what it is and see if they have learned any lessons, if any were contributing factors, often facing issues head on, trying to resolve them, limit the damage done in the past and hopefully instil some faith that things will be different next time is all we can hope for.

if you are a fairly new Engineer and everything you ever touched so far worked, you never faced any gremlins, you never faced anything that failed or was an issue, then you are not really an engineer, as you NEVER had to engineer a solution or a fix to a problem, it may even be that whatever job he is doing doesn't even need an engineer.

A GOOD engineer is one that has both seen and been involved in plenty of failures, issues, breakages, faults etc etc, some they may even cause themselves, a good engineer THRIVES on applying himself to the task at hand and carries all those findings, solutions on to the next.

AND just like this company, who has made enough mistakes, poor judgement calls, wasted mountains of time, missed many opportunities, squandered shedloads because of much of the above, just as with the sidetrack drill, they had ALL that past knowledge and info, they had a plan to align with past efforts and avoid the same, yet cut corners and created a monster.

They got there in the end, painful as it was, they cleared out some company trash, they have made efforts to clean up somewhat, though still have some way to go, and hopefully they will have learned from all the past sheite to atleast stop the rot and deliver, however small, turn the corner !! We are ALL aware of the past, and most here will be happy with ANY small progress to deliver on.

Well "IN YOUR OPINION" that would be JTS, as you are also PURELY guessing this n that, there is no camouflaging the past debacles, we ALL know what they are, yet the doom mongerers from the darkside cannot do anything other than spew the same old bile, all you and one or two others from the same clan can do is reshuffle that bile and keep reposting it.

We don't really care IF you agree or disagree, no one here is saying they will or won't do the right thing, the VAST majority of Aim scallywag outfits are a nightmare to punt longterm, almost guarantee you will lose money by doing that, these outfits are purely news driven, even my punt is very minor, but for my sins I am in... obviously you, Offy etc are not, anyway as said, keep the bile regurgitating, it makes little difference to me and probably many others.

YW Patrick,

Personally I really consider the current MC as simply too suppressed for what they have managed to progress to since exit GL, realistically I firmly believe even with heavy discount it should be more aligned to £20m mark, or 0.45p, possibly this could be seen once the booster is calibrated/tuned to the flow and the numbers released. More so if Balcombe gets green light etc = to about a 50% uplift from todays languishings.

Don't get me wrong, I too still have plenty of reservations about this outfit, but I am also willing to let it roll and see IF they can actually deliver without resorting to UKOG type Confetti factory production, or at least demonstrate some solid support if they do raise for a new well etc, along with using a chunk from any war chest they have. It isn't helping with market volatility and all this "trump world order blahhhh)

AND as said, some folk simply live in the past and cannot move forward, others on the other hand simply accept you cannot change the past !! but the difference is that GL days are LONG gone.

Went to a restaurant last year, food was sheite & over priced, had surf n turf, a lovely cranberry desert and a bottle of vino, wait !!! yep NO ONE is interested in what I did LAST YEAR... Move on, nowt to see here, hear it all before !! zzz

Offy,

If you are going to purely guess then at least state so, we know the sidetrack they drilled was extortionary expensive for what it was, but constantly posting your guesses in a way that makes it look almost fact is a bit lame to say the least.

And the cost was covered by confetti which we are ALL more than aware of. the drill was shambolic but I have also seen FIRST hand, Majors making schoolboy errors and costing double, triple due to their ermmm smart corner cutting. ALL drilling has risk, even for the best out there, and EVERY well is unique, even when in the same geology and field.

It cost WAY WAY more than it should have, such a SIDETRACK in the UK should have cost in the region of 3-4m, but it was almost certainly way over double that, probably 9m if I recall, and it still fell massively short in that the sidetrack was 1/3rd the length originally quoted, which affected the flow from this well massively, could have delivered double the rate it did.

A complete NEW well would easily be 6-7m and that assumes all went perfectly, which you would hope as they have first hand experience of the geology etc now.

Offy,

I am by no means putting them on some kind of pedestal, they still leave plenty to be wary about, I am NOT blind to that, nor are many LTH's here. They will be cleaning up legacy abominations for some time to come.

Do I think SLBY and the future works are some kind of reason for a mass rally of sorts ?? nahhh not at all, BUT slow and steady "might" win the race, it could easily shift up towards 1/2p without much notice, my point being that the downside risk from here, at this level is very minimal, likely a reasonable bottom, with plenty of news flow through this year and developments to come.

AND yes Balcombe still is the hot topic for me, if it does as hoped with permissions granted, then it could swing this far more than anything SLBY this year. You cannot change the past, but you sure can change the future, yarpping on about the calamities of the past is all that those from the dark side seem to be able to muster, WHY ?? because it is easy to lambast for the past, rather than put a decent case for the future, often because your either not in or lost out because you didn't take it off when you should have.

Add to that, the market today is an absolute nightmare with or without good or bad news on the companies, realistically the best place right now is all cash, simplzzz as for me, well as said, it is a small punt, it won't hurt or change my life either way, it is a just for the hell of it punt, and because this year looks quiet interesting

Offy, as Patrick rightly says, you and blind corner !!

As for depletion, wellllllllll it is an "interesting" term, depleted/depletion for the previous owner makes sense, because of HOW they were producing from SLBY, that process in it's self resulted in them declaring it as heavily depleted, meaning "we can't get much more out of it at commercially viable rates".

This was simply because they had zero field processing from the wells, ALL production was simply piped directly to refinery and the liquids that were being produced by this neanderthal production method, were then stalling the flow to refinery relative to the back pressure it created having to drive the production down miles of flow line to the refinery.

Nowwww Does that mean it is exhausted ?? ABSOLU|TELY NOT,,, if you open a shaken bottle of pop then you get a gush of gas and liquid escaping, then nowt, BUT the vast majority of the bottle contents are still there, you just need to use a different way to get it out. welcome Angus to the fold,,, they installed all necessary plant to strip out the liquids right at surface, removing the backpressure issue of the past. We now enter 2nd and eventually 3rd phase recovery methods, each one vastly improving the recovery from the greater field.

Therefore the book is rewritten each time, with new numbers and a much greater extension to the life of the field.

As for cash for a new well, who knows what they are sitting on since Sept 2024, and will continue to accumulate through to late this year BEFORE drilling possible well. It may result in a placing in addition to their funds available, such is life, and is pretty normal to do so, considering that shareholders live or die by the sword (successful drill or failure).

Anyway, step by step, they got the booster compo on site, they are working on that to deliver, hows about we see what this results in FIRST, rather than persistently looking to kick the sheite out of it before results ?? lol

Some people look for and hope for failure, other see opportunity and potentials.

There is no question it isn't an easy company to both punt or truly trust, BUT they are turning a corner, and this year has a lot of real growth potential to come, personally I am going to roll with it for at least a few months, see how things transpire, others can continue to cast their "end of the world in neigh" because it is all they know.

SAS,

If they are doing as I believe, meaning in relation to a longer and more extensive flow and reservoir dynamics evaluation, then this also provides essential data relative to info for any such revised CPR.

It is also possible that they "may" even be playing with velocity string works, meaning the cheapest and quickest option for such a velocity string is to run something like 2" coiled tubing down to your chosen "optimum" depth, cut the coil at surface and hang it in the tree at surface and you flow through that coil. it is a velocity string purely because you are going to flow through a smaller I.D production string to surface, therefore the gas wanting to come to surface now travels up to surface at a much higher velocity, which inturn helps to bring any induced liquids up with it, simply put it is like opening your garden tap to you hose pipe with nothing on the end and the water flows out, but if you stick a piece of pipe in the end that is a much smaller bore, then the water coming out the end is forced to travel much faster through that narrow bore and you now have a jet. (you know that, but just for others that maybe don't get it)

A coil velocity string does not require a rig, it is a 1-2 day job to install such a string and is also the cheapest option. If they were doing this then almost certainly it would be targeted at A4 well, as this well produces the most, mainly due to the poor well trajectory when they drilled it, the down side to a velocity string is you increase your reservoir recovery, but you also produce less daily but for much longer.

I also suspect at some point they will look to do more at SLBY, I doubt they will plan for a completely "new" well, simply to avoid all the planning and green sheite that they would face in such application. I strongly suspect they will almost certainly opt to utilize one or more of the existing wellbores as motherbores and use directional drilling to reach new or hopefully improved sections of the greater SLBY, with the view to bolstering up production and to maximise the CPR and potential for greater storage capacity.

Add to that, that utilizing old wells for the main bore to sidetrack out from them saves significant time & money too, along with them now having a better understanding from the last drilling efforts, which hopefully without GL means they stick to a plan and don't go trying to be a smart ar55 cutting corners etc.

There is plenty to be hopeful for, lets hope they "are" being very active behind the scenes in trying to move things forward on a few different fronts.

SaS,

From my view, basically whatever they take from SLBY in recovered hydrocarbons, pretty much will give them close to the same in storage volume.

The CPR Vs the true final recovery numbers will write it's own story, meaning t is almost certainly not the CPR numbers, more that it will be the "induced" liquids (Condy & Water) that will eventually dictate the end of commercial production.

I sense they have been controlling production more stringently over at least the last 6 months, which I believe would be done to see how the surface flow and reservoir dynamics change, that is something that takes considerable time after each adjustment, as you are not just altering the surface flow, it also changes the reservoir to wellbore dynamics too.

All good mind, as this is how you fine tune your future and production to get the absolute best optimisation,

For the sake of giving WG something to read AGAIN,,, here ya gooo for old times sake PMSL

My take on Balcombe:

Primarily Balcombe was a successful discovery, they discovered light oil and produced from it under testing conditions.

The well had to be lifted prior to testing, meaning they had to run coiled tubing to enable pumping of Nitrogen which lifts the column of kill fluids, residual drilling fluids etc that are sitting in the wellbore and preventing the reservoir from producing any hydrocarbons.

They achieved natural flow to surface for both tests, the first test produced notable water along with hydrocarbons, roughly 850bbls of oil with approx. 200bbls of water.

The second test flowed naturally to surface at almost double the flow rate of test 1, approx. 1600bbls of hydrocarbons and a much reduced volume of water, approx. 105bbls water.

The Company also noted they initially recorded flow at around 3000bbl/day with the well slugging.

What do I take from all the general information available and apply my take on that ?

OK, I don’t take much notice of the stupidly announced initial slugged 3000bbl/day, why ? because often what companies do is they might get say 125bbls of oil slug to surface in the first hour only. What do they likely mean by “slugging”, well this is most likely referring to the coil tubing that is pumping down nitrogen to start lifting fluids out of the well, the nitrogen is a light pocket/bubble of gas pumped under the column of fluid in the well, the gas wants to rise to surface and while doing so the pockets of nitrogen lift/drive out the fluids above them. The slug is referring to the pocket of liquids being lifted by the pocket of gas to surface.

So what a company can do is say Heyyy ok there was still a chunk of nitrogen left in the horizontal when we opened the well for the first flow test and that nitrogen came out from the horizontal and then slugged up some notable slugs of oil to surface, equating to 125bbls in the first hour, 24 x 125 = potentially 3000bbl/day.

It isn’t a good idea to spout slugged numbers, they are very unreliable and likely without the residual nitrogen escaping back out the well. It would never naturally produce such a high constant 24/7 rate.

Move on to the “actual” rates, the 1st flow test had a 22% water cut, which they were not expecting, and with this amount of water entering into the wellbore will seriously inhibit production and flow stability, water is heavier (denser) than oil so any water rising up the wellbore will weigh on any lighter oil trying to come to surface, this means your wellhead pressure is going to be less and may even stall out to zero if enough water % is entering into the wellbore column to surface.

Move on to test No 2, they flowed at double, approx 1600bbl/day, and MOST importantly only produced around 105bbl/day of water. You ask HOW so ? surely double the oil rate should = double the water rate.

For me it was very significant, it was demonstrating that whatever water was remaining in the wellbore and near wellbore reservoir was depleting, it was depleting because this water was pumped into the wellbore likely as a “kill fluid” and because water is more dense than oil, it will try to go all the way down, and possibly push into the near wellbore reservoir, where it will sit until the day someone lightens the fluid column back to surface again, and then what happens is the oil sitting behind the suppressed water then drives the water outwards and upwards to surface.

What they eventually discovered was that the water was of high salinity, similar to Brines used for well kill purposes etc, and the salinity did not correlate to anything within the region.

Therefore I strongly expect that a much longer test period would see water production eventually decline to zero

Importantly, what needs to be considered is that the Balcombe target reservoir was only 2700ft from surface, which means that the pressure at reservoir is very likely not that high. Example, if the pressure at reservoir is say 1000psi, and say light crude oil has a gradient of 0.2 psi/ft then that means the column of oil to surface (2700ft) weighs 540psi, meaning you only have an underbalance at reservoir of 460 psi trying to push the oil out at surface. (simplified in layman terms), if you have saline water in the wellbore too, saline water could be 0.5 psi/ft, so if you have 1/3rd of your wellbore with saline water in it and 2/3rds filled with oil to surface, then the surface pressure will be zero, the column weighs greater than 1000psi at reservoir and you well will not flow until you remove more water.

My take on the actual flow rates achieved: The Company stated it was a 7 day test, but did not state how long each test was physically run for, it could be hours, it could be days, only they know. But the important fact here is they did demonstrate highly mobile light crude that did produce naturally and dramatically improved by the 2nd test, that tells me the reservoir pressure isn’t huge at that depth, because the significant increase in oil to surface was because the saline water was also significantly less, meaning less weight of water in the column to surface holding back the oil wanting to get out.

Is Balcombe commercial ? In my opinion it is highly likely it is commercial, but it is highly likely that long term sustainable production would be by installation of completion with pump to eliminate the issue of wellhead pressure/reservoir pressure decline.

What rates are possible long term? I do not think they would look to produce big numbers, I think they would go for much lower steady & continuous production, maybe 300=500bbl/d. I think that for 2 main reasons, firstly to best manage the reservoir and allow optimum drainage to be achieved, and secondly it is highly likely Balcombe would require onsite facilities to process and store, before being road tankered away.

A typical tanker can hold around 200bbl, and I do not think they would push locals and local routes with more than 2 possibly 3 tankers back and forth each day, even that could cause local irritation and issues, and likely onsite storage would need to be limited, maybe 2000bbls processing and storage to limit local focus.

That is my take on I ;-)))))))))))

Ohh dear, the beasty from the dark side returns lol...

OK, firstly, I have ALWAYS declared my position, INCLUDING exactly when I sold at 1.7p, and most importantly WHY,, Sooo mr smarta8rse please tell me exactly WHERE I went wrong ?? it looks like it was perfectly timed, since it simply continued downwards to this level since that time.

Hmmm Mr Smyth lol,,, yes the so called professor who was caught LYING and discredited for numerous reasons, INCLUDING on certain aspects of the Weald lol,,, is this your BEST line of attack ?? lol... says a LOT coming from you.

Of course I will trade my stock, as for your information, this is called a MARKET, hmmm I see no reference anywhere that states Hug n hold, noooo it doesn't, the market is to allow people to trade their stock, AND most importantly I cannot sell if there are no buyers, someone wants to take them off me at a PERCENTAGE I am happy with then great !! right ?? or am I missing something ?? proper pmslll

As for Balcombe, do YOU really want me to REPOST my detailed evaluation AGAIN, just ask and I will, VERY accurate and to the industry point !! YES or NO ??

Thanks SaS/Mirasol,

I am invested here, though not huge, and I too want to see great progress through this year, all the ingredients are there to bake the perfect cake.

Interesting regards your feed on the test at the time, though the point they used significant nitrogen (for lifting) does also seriously distort what is real and what is manufactured in flow terms.

That said, and as per the hugely long post I put up here some time ago in relation to Balcombe specifically, I too still genuinely believe this is a decent trap/pocket within the Weald and it has a very real potential to deliver, this I think we all agree on (apart from WG lol)

SAS,

THE problem with such "stated" rates is they do not state the duration and this is a VERY common game played by some operators.

OK if you state you flowed the well for a week continuously, and you acquired a "stable" continuous flow of say 2000bbl/d, then that is extremely promising you will achieve early production rates in that ballpark, and even with a modest decline rate after the flowing "honeymoon period" you may well see over 1000bbl/d for some considerable time.

BUT often this is not the case, what they do is when they open the well to test, the well starts to unload and you might see an initial surge, especially if you are using coiled tubing to lift the well to get natural flow.

So you may find that in the first half hour you got 120bbls, directly resulting from mostly coil assistance and unload of the accumulated fluid column in the well, then in the 2nd 30 mins you got 40bbls, a significantly lower quantity, so the average for that hour was 80bbl.

It may be that you stop the test for whatever reason, insufficient well replenishment from the reservoir, too much water etc etc, BUT they simply throw a stupid headline number out, which is simply done by X the bbls in that first hour by 24 which gives a VERY unrealistic 1920bbl/DAY.

I most certainly do not believe they had achieved a TRUE, STABLE & SUSTAINED flow of anything remotely like what they were stating, it is just a number, not the reality.

Daniel,

Whatever you are smoking send me some !!

2500 bbl/d for Balcombe will NEVER happen, they will be doing extremely well if they can achieve good clean up flow of more like 250bbl/d and believe me, that would be an outstanding number for onshore UK and especially for the Weald geology.

To be honest it is still as flat as a fart, 10 trades total £6k worth, can get a quote to dump 500k shares no problem at 3.01.

if they "want your shares" then they need to do a little more than what they are doing ;-)))