Member Info for Bubblepoint

Run before you are pushed me feels. !!! Though it will likely change nothing as the damage is clearly done !!

There might be some grey clouds over the Weald, but here it is already shining bright... enjoy it while it lasts I say.

Laterzzzzz

It is not about me supposedly just coming to my senses relative to the dodgy dealings of this outfit.

I have stated many times that much of what they do is to the ultimate detriment of retail punters.

What I have often supported or offered my view on is the operational side of what they do, do wrong or don't do, and the ORIGINAL concept of taking SLBY and what they could do, was smart, the only issue is they deliberately stripped the retail upside out of it, undermined it, and are now in a tail spin with stupid planning, cost and activity.

That said, this latest supposedly wonderous RTO says a lot to me, in that they are simply looking to distract attention from the mostly failed booster recovery, especially when there were MUCH cheaper and quicker options to trial before going all Booster on us.

They have nowhere to go with it now, they threw their last chip on red and it rolled black, and now they are doing a "laughing" Lenigas on us, throw in a NEW pipedream of some "Near death", highly costly to do anything on, supposedly producing assets, that someone in the GoA is oddly willing to roll Angus in for seemingly a song, and then to enable resculpting of the shares in issue for the next 5 years.

That said the SLBY trough will remain full enough for the insiders snouts to keep full bellies on though.

HITS,

Not trying to be pedantic but in fairness the quarterly figures stated in those reports show quarterly revenues of between £5.2m - £6.2m, so ballpark £1.8m per month or over £20m per year.

OK, we are trying to play with figures that ultimately STILL leave Angus & SLBY running at best, breakeven after debt considerations & Opex etc, along with Capex needs to "to try" and sustain modest production levels. Ultimately on paper SLBY is a writeoff for retail punters, there is no added value, it will simply at best keep the trough full for the inner circle snouts to scoff on.

What is also frustrating is that they are now looking to distract the market with some jumped up GoA stuff, when they are supposed to be also focusing on Balcombe test programme, seems that one is also gathering dust in the backroom.

5. Let's forget hedges entirely. Say ANGS can currently sell all its gas at open market pricing of 90p. That gives a revenue (NB revenue, not profit| of £1.2m per month. Take off the 8% royalty and you get a revenue of £1.1m per month or £13.2m per annum.

So... £13.2m p.a. minus finance costs of £6.75m p.a = £6.45m left to pay all yearly field and back office opex, plus fund any further required capex, plus service any other debts (eg Paul Forrest's remaining £1.88m).

I personally deem any kind of reason for NON payment as a negative, unless a VERY clear reason is given at the TIME of announcement of the non payment.

"Effectively" being in default (you are because you failed to pay on the date agreed) does not instil confidence in any respect, and regardless of their RTO discussions in the GoA to possibly get involved in a few of the 53,000 wells that exist in the GoA, with 14,000 of them sat stagnant and needing P&A with many desperate owners looking to palm off their depleted wells/fields out there.

Add to that, you have to question why some outfit is willing to enter into a RTO, and why they would consider doing it with an outfit clearly struggling with their own UK assets, and with a pretty shady history of bad management.

Is it the desperate leading the desperate ? because the cost to just scratch your backside offshore is obscene in comparison to the simple land operations, Angus were not far off entering the Guinness book of records for the longest time and costliest pish easy sidetrack well, that also only achieved 1/3rd of it's total depth target, and then spent multi millions on this Booster to barely move the dial on production. Hmmmm I can see the attraction !!!

Imagine them proposing a workover in the GoA, just one well, could cost 10 fold anything they done at SLBY and more...........

Angus has not given a reason for non payment, only that it is trying to "resculpt" the repayment.

Angus "could" have noted in their non payment RNS, that they currently have £xxxxxxxx cash in account and are in a healthy cash state, but they didn't.

What Angus stated in an RNS Feb 2024 is far, far from the reality on what/how they funded those noted objectives from financing and revenues.

Imagine the change in investor feeling if Angus had said "we are in talks with Trafigura, but to be clear, we are financially stable, with in excess of £10m in cash available in the bank of Dave, it would put a totally different spin on chatter here, the fact they didn't state something about their financial health says to me that it isn't healthy at all.

So, we all keep spouting on about HOW MUCH revenue this shower has had through their hands over the last 2 years, typically in the ballpark of £6m per quarter, so not small change.

Lets assume the worst case scenario, and say they were penniless prior to the £20m loan facility over a year ago, and in that was a 12 month grace period, so they have had ballpark £24m in revenue into their bank less OPEX. Lets work on worst case £1m a month, so with no loan to pay then they "should" be sitting on what ??? £12m cash ??

AHHHH you say (well OTM says) BUT buttt they spent on Brockham, they spent on the field supposed upgrade, mainly being the Booster Compressor, so of course all of that might have drained the cash pot some what !!!

WAIT a min !! Lest go back and read the 24 Feb 2024 RNS,, you know the one, for the £20m debt facility and what they will utilize it all for..

They had a LOT to say in that RNS, and quiet specific too, CLEARLY stating these loaned funds will cover Brockham, and will cover the SLBY upgrading, SPECIFICALLY noting the Booster compressor in that Capex and funding utilization.

I did NOT write the below, THEY did. So the remaining £6m + £24m of grace period revenue = a cool £30m, me thinks they need to start explaining themselves !!!

Use of Proceeds

The Facility will be used, as detailed above, to pay down historic debt. After debt repayment and payment of associated interest costs, fees and expenses associated with the refinancing, there will be a remaining balance of approximately £5.9 million, which will directed towards the following activities:

· Payment of legacy capex creditors from the drilling of the Saltfleetby-7 well in 2022-23.

· A programme in Q2 2024 to restore oil production from the Brockham Field in Southern England, through a tubing-replacement workover and repairs to the downhole pump in the Brockham-1X well. In the event of success, it is planned to reperforate the Brockham-4X well, currently completed in the Kimmeridge zone, in the main Portland reservoir to increase production. Angus is also hoping for confirmation soon that it is permitted to conduct a long-term test of the Balcombe-2Z well.

· At Saltfleetby, invest in equipment to increase production and improve reliability. This includes the acquisition of a booster compressor which will be installed in Q4 2024 to allow wells to be produced to their abandonment pressure, thereby maximising recovery from the field; purchase of critical spares and a noise suppression system to be applied to the compressors on site; and

· As detailed in the Saltfleetby Field Competent Person's Report (CPR) published in October 2023, it is planned to drill a fourth production well or sidetrack in the field in 2025 to increase production and accelerate reservoir depletion. Funds from the Facility will be spent on the planning process for this new well and the purchase of essential long lead items.

One thing is pretty clear that all their efforts to purge hold up liquids from the wellbore & near wellbore are a fail.

I also noted in past posts relative to this "booster Compressor" that ultimately the objective of the Booster is to enable flow at lower wellbore pressures and down stream for the Booster to ramp up the pressure above the minimum main compressor entry pressure.

THE reality is that, wait for itttttttttttttt !!! the lower you drop the wellbore pressure, then you naturally drop more and more BELOW DEW POINT, and the result of that is you induce more and more liquids.

In my book, they should have at least done one well with velocity string, as this is by far the cheapest and easiest install, they may have found that just implementing this was enough to drive much more liquid out, WITHOUT dropping the wellbore pressure too much, thus NOT ramping up the induction of Condensate as the wellbore pressure sits around Dew point, and not massively below.

I would say this is no longer a speculative share, and some would benefit from getting some new spectacles, the writing is well and truly on the wall....

I also like the way Angus was clear to put in BOLD the below !! slowly becoming like UKOG & PPP, just a gravy train for those inside the outfit.

At this stage, the Potential Transaction is non-binding and subject to completing due diligence, funding and other material considerations and there is no certainty that it will be completed, and the timing thereof cannot be determined.

Shareholders should be aware that there is a risk that admission of the Company's securities could be cancelled if they have been suspended from trading for six months.

Enjoy the W/E

PS,

I will NOT be responding to ANYONE or ANY response posts, if you don't like the REALITY of such posts, then you know where the FILTER button is !!

laterzzzzzzzzz

Some may be thinking EWWWW big oil in the GoA !! money , money, money !!!

Ermmm no not really, there are a growing ARMY of small, medium & Large companies DESPERATE to offload their wells in the GoA, many are producers, and an awful lot are either depleted or on the edge of life.

Why are gullible minnow outfits offered such morsels ? simply, they all leave a dribble for the last one holding the baby with a HEFTY abandonment and restoration of seabed cost waiting to land at their feet in the not too distant future.

Almost 53,000 wells have been drilled in the GoA in it's industry life, and around 14,000 are sitting stagnating with a HUGE clean up bill linked to each and every one of them.

So before you start cheering that this will be the next Angus miracle, read the link, that is the reality and why so many outfits are more than happy to dump their wells on the gullible !! This is not some onshore, shallow well SLBY type situation, this holds far, far greater implications down the road.

https://www.nrdc.org/bio/rebecca-loomis/study-shows-14000-unplugged-oil-and-gas-wells-gulf-mexico#:~:text=By%20law%2C%20oil%20and%20gas,communities%20and%20the%20ocean%20environment.

SINGING off... I see a dozen too many is still desperate !! lol... GL

Not here to continue posting, and will not respond to any, just putting my thinking of this latest TWIST in Angus world.

I do not consider this "finance restructuring" with Trafigura and the possible RTO of producing assets in the GoA as some strange coincidence.

I do not believe Angus would have a hope in heyllll of closing such a deal in the GoA on their own and in their current financial stress.

I strongly suspect that they (Angus) are trying to "restructure" not just the finances, but the company, in that I do not believe they can pull off anything in the GoA without Trafigura, This is a company that has a MC that is half the current debt to Trafigura, and does not include other monies owed elsewhere (forrest etc).

It would not surprise me to find that this GoA potential deal is more Trafigura USING Angus as the vehicle to access these GoA assets and by default limit their exposure. How such a deal will be worked is "anyone's" guess, but it "might" by default release the Trafigura shackles around SLBY ankles a fair bit, whilst Trafigura still make on the gas offtake side.

This definitely SMELLS more like that above than some "Solo Angus" deal, from a seemingly penniless & debt laden outfit.

I am not remotely convinced it will see any notable benefit to retail punters, at least not in the short term, but heyyyy, stranger things have happened.

Singing out, GL.

""I'm not seeing the DFS coming."

Is that your "crystal ball" working overtime ?? It will come when they are done !!! it is not floating around the ether or something !!

I will go one better than that O2M,,

I will no longer post on here, on that note, I wish you all good luck, I have better things to be doing in life than posting on here, for mvrpits such as yourself to simply kick off like a spoint berrrat, it makes zero difference to what I punt, trade, whatever.

For all the REAL holders here, I hope it turns a corner, and I hope you get your chance to exit at some point with a profit.

Ohhh dear,,, O2M desperate to pump and dump lol.... it is YOU who needs a WEALTH warning on your posts lol idiot

O2M,

LET me be clear, the RNS was NOT misinterpreted, nor is the considerable effort it is taking to get these wells purged of liquids, of course every time they crack them open to lift the liquids there is going to be an uplift for a while, but the REAL question is not about one day uplift, it is about IF they can achieve consistent flow WHILE lifting more liquids EVERY day.

Spouting your positive theme in some ignorant blinded way is not helpful in the deeper understanding of the process, we can ALL spout something positive for a back slapping contest, but then you cannot pay for your groceries with back slaps !!! good luck with it though lol

Offy, it would not be referred to as DYNAMIC if it was static

And the DYNAMIC is what then ?? because dynamic means it moves, it is not a fixed price

Meaning Angus will almost certainly receive less than the daily spot price, but with varying discounted % depending on demand & related price fluctuation and a safety net at the bottom end.

The only comment from me on that Offy is that Trafigura gave Angus "dynamic" pricing, which basically translates to a dynamic discount, but likely has a safenet baseline as well as a headline too.

What ?? it helps if you highlight your point

So if we work on £1m per month average, then from total sales revenue of what ?? £6m per quarter, £24m annual revenue, and repayment of £1.25m per quarter or around £0.42m per month, round it to £1.5m per month leaves them just £1.5m per quarter excess pre tax.

It isn't anything like enough if they honour the Trafigura repayment plan. They gonna need to up production by 50% without spending a fortune to make this more than a "keep the lights on & debt repayment" outfit

Apology for that mirasol,

Ocelot,

The issue with Balcombe is that they "should not" be doing anything else right now, other than 100% focus on SLBY, why ? because this is to all intense & purpose, their cash cow, even with modest gas flows, it is generating £6m per quarter, not too shabby, but this also means they SHOULD have one heck of a war chest built up, being the booster absolute MAX cost including installation below £3m, more like £2m, so there should be plenty swilling around in the coffers.

But the way they are talking, it is giving very strong vibes that this is not the case, and there is NO way Opex is draining this dry every month... It is all giving off a bad odour to me, !!!!