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""Miss direction, subderfuge & an air of panic""

Patrick,

I think all the above are exactly what GL's reign of this outfit delivered in spades, and that resulted in it ultimately hitting the 0.4's.

That said, Angus is in the process of trying to draw a line in the sand and move forwards, with the "yet to be signed off" new consolidation & finance deal, along with the consolidation of the old hedge into a full production "likely modestly" discounted new dynamic hedge.

I personally do not think it is going to light some kind of fire under the SP, but I do feel it will at least stabilize it with a possible mild upside from here. In my mind, the foreseeable production works needed and the addition of the next well will only at best maintain production levels for the next few years, the fine detail of this deal will certainly make interesting reading, I don't see Trafigura as vultures, as with those previously involved in providing desperate finance to Angus, it is not in their interest to use their position as a form of financial abuse, but to ensure there is also enough left on the carcass for Angus to comfortably keep the lights on too.

The "new & more structured" team will have learnt a lot along the way so far, including "lessons learnt" from the GL days, and I am sure they will look to try and carry this through into "possible" other projects outside of SLBY, which is most likely where new and more notable upside will likely be created.

As for what "anyone" does holding or trading wise, well in my book, profit is profit once banked, regardless of how much, and no one should ever regret selling out too early and missing some unexpected or unjustifiable movement, as there are ALWAYS other windows of opportunity over time.

As for posters on here, including myself, posting ""Miss direction, subderfuge & an air of panic"" well such posts usually only emerge from the information and most importantly "lack of detail" that the company chose to put out themselves, and leave it full of pot holes, as said before, it usually emerges that it is, what is "not said" that causes the most damage.

Oakley,

In part yes you are correct, I do want to, otherwise I would not be following the story as I do.

I think the Trafigura "provisional" deal is great in respect of it being far more aligned to the actual industry, rather than vultures that have been picking on the carcass, no one can blame them, they got their deals over the line for all the wrong reasons, but hopefully this new deal ends their scavenging.

I am still hesitant to even take a short term punt, simply because the flows are lower than they should be, and that points towards the in field works such as velocity strings, possibly jet pump installation on A4, booster compressor works etc, needing to be done fairly soon in the new year, not that I deem t some kind of failing of the field, just that this secondary recovery of gas from depleted fields such as this, need fairly constant work to maintain the drainage at decent commercial levels.

The deal takes a huge amount of pressure off Angus for the foreseeable, and allows them the breathing space to actually focus on the work needed and actually have the funds in hand to do them without stressing both themselves and the stock.

Trafigura are not some kind of charity, they are also in it for their slice of the pie, but I actually think they did well getting them onboard with it, along with the grace period too. Trafigura will make a decent chunk on this, I expect the cost of taking out the original hedge will come at a notable underlying cost, and that will be taken into account against the discount applied to the dynamic long term hedge on all production, which I feel is likely to be around 20% below the monthly or quarterly rolling wholesale price, but it will at least be far more transparent and balanced.

I remain watching for now, as the works needed including the new well are effectively at best targeting to only maintain the flow at todays rates or slightly higher, and from my mind it really means that it is going to be at least 12 months before Angus actually have excess from revenue to actually bank, and I am not convinced there is anything like enough to do other projects such as Balcombe without a placing or two.

I also feel they have done enough to demonstrate to Trafigura that SLBY CAN produce decent commercial rates for at least the term of this financing deal, which is in reality 6 years with the 12 month grace period, and I don't believe they could flannel the likes of Trafigura with GL type borlocks, the numbers and the outlook must have looked acceptable.

Not sure how Kemexon will take it, which is a bit of an underlying concern to me, as for Forrest, I doubt he will do much, he has a part payment, which is likely enough for his accountant to work through for the year without being slaughtered for tax, which may also stop him from dumping stock too.

Anyway the future "looks" much better placed, but need the detail to come out now.

ATB

Patrick,

Not sure what you want me to comment on ? the article or the thread ?

Firstly, the fact SLBY is producing 75% of all onshore gas, still only equates to a grand total of 0.75% of all UK gas, which in the grand scheme of things is pretty miniscule & would be very different story if frac'ing had been allowed onshore UK, meaning as to what Onshore gas contribution % would be to all UK gas.

The feasibility study is something they were pretty much always going to do anyway, which includes the remapping subsurface, and I get that, simply because the field is faulted, and has some compartmentalisation within it, and it is going to take some notable timeline to conclude the study.

I strongly suspect the remapping may well be also to align the best chance of success for the new well planned for the end of 2024, into 2025, as that target is anticipated to be a section of the reservoir that is geologically not draining or has very limited communication to the rest of the producing reservoir.

My gut feeling is it will eventually be used for storage, though I don't deem it of huge national importance, more akin to what it is doing now for national gas supply, it is a very small contributor, but still every bit helps, similarly to Storenergy in Cheshire, they can store about enough for 2 days of total UK demand, but it will always be limited by the maximum plant output and pipeline to grid, meaning it is much more about stabilized contribution to the grid to maintain balance against any shortfalls and excess demands, rather than as the mass bulk it holds.

Personally, I am ALL for repurposing fields and much of their infrastructure, than simply decommissioning them to nothing.

I don't have a crystal ball in regards to what gas prices will be by the time more defining decisions are taken on SLBY, and how that will fit in to the justification and cost of conversion etc, but if it is anything like even current prices then I am sure they will fair well. Ultimately if you are filling your storage at the lowest window for demand and supplying the grid at the highest peaky times then I am sure returns wise it would easily demonstrate financial viability and assist in its own small way to national supply stability.

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