RE: So20 Feb 2019 18:32
SeaHawk bit tongue in cheek but just wait :-)
HRZ has been widely misunderstood, first the complexity of cracking the code and many of us (including me) initially under estimated the time it might take, however all is not lost and the fact that the jv are working with Baker Hughes and the HRZ sweet spot extends under the ASRC leases gives me hope we may crack it sooner rather than later.
DW did give words of caution at the last meeting with Paul prior to the flow, I can remember the room going quiet.
"Questioner:
Thanks, Dave. I have one final question for you then. Last year, when you presented in September, you've mentioned the 50% success. You've changed the well design. You're obviously looking to get a good flow result. Is there any further upgrade on your expectation?
Dave Wall:
No. I know that people want us to say yes but, really, the 50% is based on our calculation of risk and also our estimation of uncertainty which is not actually very hard to estimate. Changing the design doesn't actually change any of that. What it does is increases the potential to maximize the flow rate, but it doesn't tell us whether it is going to flow and whether the fracture is going to remain open and how the rock is going to behave and all those things that we will never understand until we actually drill the well.
Until we get new information, we can't change our assessment of the risk or uncertainty. 50-50 on a few billion barrels, so pretty good in my book. Obviously, if it doesn't come in, we'll still be villains even though we do try to highlight the risk to everyone and make sure people understand. That's one of the reasons why we're to here, to say that if you flip a coin, and this is not a coin flip because this isn't a chance because there's a lot of work that has gone into this. When it boils down to it, it might not work. There's a 50% chance that it's going to be a lot of value destruction here.
Don't worry, the next answer will be more optimistic.
Paul Basinski:
It sounded like a morgue. It didn't sound like much quiet."
Finally if Pantheon are talking about Alkaid after 4 years to flow test then I am prepared to wait a bit longer for HRZ.
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