Member Info for BroadfordBay

The Turkish press is full today of stories on the Halkbank agreements with KRG re "illegal" oil exports.

They claim the Paris Court (International Chamber of Commerce) is set to rule against Turkey (and by implication therefore also the KRG) by early 2019.

The Iraq government submitted the application in May-2014:
https://www.dailysabah.com/opinion/2014/06/26/till-international-legal-experts-tear-us-apart-iraq-goes-to-arbitration-against-turkey-under-40year-old-treaty

Of course, in the ongoing Game of Chess that Iraq power politics has been for so many years now, the consequences of such a negative (for KRG) ruling could perhaps be subject to some serious brokering in the current jostling for power in Baghdad - but it might be unwise to bet too heavily against it.

"If you remember, a call AKP government was so chummy with the Kurds in northern Iraq. The Baghdad government's objections to the opposition in Turkey" to do "despite calls -one once MHP opposition cephesindeydi- oil and gas with the Kurdish administration in northern Iraq Oil was shed from northern Iraq to Ceyhan, but the Baghdad government did not receive the necessary income from the oil in accordance with the Iraqi Constitution.

The Baghdad government also took it to Paris in 2014 for international arbitration. The news from Paris, showing the court will announce its decision çıkacak- -great probably against Turkey at the beginning of 2019 at the latest. In other words, while waiting for the possible Halkbank punishment from the US, a possible Iraqi sentence from Paris is at our door ... "
https://www.ahvalnews.com/node/23399#

If you consider this a negative view, you must be aware that the serious money might also be aware of what's going on in the world...

I'm very encouraged by the reports that costs are set to fall by ca. $210M following the merger.

Amec FW is a great company and I expect, once teething problems have been dealt with and the oil supply situation is clarified, this to be a very solid investment.

haha

Like you do you mean?

Surely not!

Why on earth should I only speak to others using industry terminology?

My language skills are well able to encompass a whole range of nuances.

Hi CCC,

if cash burn was as normal as it has been over the last few months then I estimate we could have as much as $248M available.

Bearing in mind, however, that forward-ordering of equipment necessary for retaking the 40Mbopd target level may already have started, it could well be that we are back down around the $220M - $230M level (there may also have been a few small operational / technical issues that needed attending to).

There are also some other items that might need reconciling with this figure - such as the pay-off for those Notes who didn't want to stay invested (guess $10m - $20M?), plus a possible production bonus payable to the MNR (50MMbbl) - but that could possibly be made to disappear depending on the terms of the renegotiated PSC.

We are due an Operations Review sometime quite soon, so that should clear up most things.

Grow up!

One of the reasons why I post is to provide some balance against just this sort of ****e - posted on the other bb by someone using the name "habshan" (13:03 - 570266):

"Their deliberations resulted in a budgeted investment programme that BY THIS TIME NEXT YEAR WILL HAVE US PRODUCING 55kpd and with an updated FDP mapping out the route to 75kpd, 100kpd and beyond.

SO A YEAR FROM NOW those industry professionals will have us producing 55kpd, we will be on our way to 75kpd, we will have a new CPR and THE SHARE PRICE WILL BE MULTIPLES OF WHERE IT IS NOW."
(CAPS are mine)

The person who earlier mentioned "fantasy predictions" was aiming his arrows at the wrong persons.

Look in the mirror...self-delusion doesn't come near describing it.

surreyscot

The CPR shows clearly the H2S concentrations found in the various SH formations.

The "liquid H2S in a well" is a red herring introduced by you to confuse things; I have not mentioned anything about liquid H2S in a well. I don't need to Google that either.
You should look at a phase diagram for H2S before focusing on the liquification temperature you mention

The fact that the concentrated H2S-rich gas stream can be converted to S after Amine treatment is not disputed here - but such conversion (to S) will not be undertaken by any of the he operators. Do you know why? (Although they will have to deal with small accumulations of S in the process plant they have.)

Chemical treatment is used, has been used, by almost all operators in the start-up phase, but is not suited to large-scale production of H2S gas streams.

You disqualified your original remarks with the assertion that H2S is a gas, not a liquid; a qualified consulting engineer would not have fallen into that trap.

surreyscot

a) Your understanding of these things is very limited - do you know the Pressure & Temperature influence(s) on this particular NTP/STP gas? Are you aware for example that you can have Iron Gas - i.e. Iron in the Gas Phase?

b) Again, your understanding of H2S concentration(s) appears lacking.
The %H2S in SH crude is high (15% - 25%+). The CPR mentions a concentration of 29%H2S for the KC-B formation
The stripped gas after Amine scrubbing (i.e. what remains after the "clean" gas has been piped elsewhere) is VERY high in H2S & CO2 (could typically be 75%H2S + 23%CO2 + C%). This acid-rich sour gas is what has to be safely disposed of by re-injection. You can inject as a gas or as a liquid - there are many technical- and cost aspects to be considered beforehand. It's unclear at the moment how the company will approach this particular challenge, and what the costs will then be. If the MNR is now starting to push for acid gas re-injection (witness recent statements by some other operators) then the costs are not yet being discussed openly as far as I can see. If you want to run pipework containing such very high concentrations over many kilometers than that has important implications, hence my Q: 1 injection well or 2?
This issue has been mentioned many times by senior directors, both at public meetings and face-to-face with myself and others.
And by the way, not all equipment that goes down the hole can be made of "stainless steel"...

c) I know what Weatherford is and does; that is my point.

Tony,

they call themselves Investors - but the truth of the matter is that they are nothing but speculative creamers; creaming off the SP foam that they attempt to produce from lies, repeating years-old Sino rumours (NEVER confirmed), out-of-date picks-offs from various Holdings Sites, repeats of old, misunderstood RNS', invalid understanding of technical matters well beyond their ken, and all supported by the vile personal attacks.

My interest remains Technical and I'll post what I want and when I want to. The fact that the SP has pulled back a bit confuses them - how's that for LOL!

Best regards.

Sept should be fun...

#9 is less than 1km from #4, and is about 6km from PF-1.
It is much, much further from PF-2 - and so begs the question, will #9 only serve the PF-1 gas output, and will another injection well be required on the E side of the field to deal with PF-2 gas output?
Will the H2S be injected in the liquid phase...?
(the FEED was completed several years ago)

Concentrated H2S, whether gas- or liquid phase, will eat standard casings, strings and other equipment in very short order. So, can an existing well such as #9 be fully utilised (for liquid phase, by running small dia. alloy tubing down to the injection assy) or will it have to be re-completed?
Will the MNR accept an FDP that allows for only half of the produced gas to be injected, allowing for experience to be gained over a couple of years before next stage(s) are implemented?
Is #4 currently blowing gas (i.e. very little oil, high GOR)? What about #3?
What formation depths are currently producing / being tapped for #4, #3 and #1?
Is the pressure depletion so advanced on any of these wells that standard ESP layout will be useless?
Will gas lift now need to be considered and will it only be used for #4 producing area?
How much gas is actually being produced?

Technical stuff that still interests a couple of people but never seems to get clarified nowadays.

Schade...

I see Bob & his mates on the other board are back in full Sino Mode.

Anyone contacted Weatherford recently?

The offsetting elements that will almost certainly accompany any beneficial revision to the PSC need to be considered – likewise the resulting consequences (look at what DNO agreed).

Just for argument's sake, let us assume that the major benefits to GKP & MOL of such a PSC Revision include: Scrubbing completely the 30% Special Tax, scrubbing completely the MNR or 3rd Party participation percentages, and fixing GKP’s WI at 80%, with MOL’s at 20% (analogue the recent DNO agreement).

In the event that most, if not all, of the outstanding Capex recovery / outstanding amounts are offset against the above new (improved) contractual percentages highlighted above (i.e. if outstanding Capex and owed amounts is effectively reset to zero), then the negative effects on monthly revenue need to be considered.

These negative effect on Cost- and Profit Oil Revenue will be substantial – and will persist until the Outstanding Capex amount has again grown sufficiently to grow / improve the CO barrels & revenues.

How many have done the calculations?

IMO there will be no dividend - they will need every penny they have.

Just a comment here if I may;

Two wrongs will never make a right.

The lack of progress by Baghdad in fully implementing the Constitution (which was agreed only under pressure from the US), the lack of progress on putting the Kirkuk issue to bed (incl. census), along with lack of agreement on "Prior Discoveries" and "Disputed Territories", as well as the apportionment of Budget Funds and the recognition of Peshmerga funding, have all been taken by the KRG as justification for their actions.

The bypassing of the Faysh Khabur metering point, allowing the misappropriation of Iraq Oil Revenues by KRG, the use of the Ceyhan pipeline which remains subject to IR:TR Sovereign Agreement, as well as the control of Border Gate Tax Revenues along the Turkish- and Iranian Borders over many years by the KRG, are further points that will carry real weight in international courts.

Sisyphus comes to mind...

If you want another viewpoint, consider reading what an educated and experienced Iraqi, one with lots of insider knowledge of "how things are done", thinks of it all.

KRG Oil Export Revenues 2017 Assessed
Ahmed Mousa Jiyad
Iraq/ Development Consultancy & Research
Norway

http://www.iraq-businessnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Ahmed-Mousa-Jiyad-KRG-Report-2017-for-publication-b.pdf

gyp,

...agree with that.

now on the KRG website:

http://cabinet.gov.krd/uploads/documents/2018/Deloitte_H2_2017_Public_Report.pdf

Hi CCC,

yes I hope so.

I thought Baghdad's use of the KRG pipe section had been stopped quite a long time ago with only sporadic references about a potential new "agreement" being made.

As ever, in this region, no particular weight is placed on transparency or truth.

The SP seems quite firm, let's hope the next ops announcement puts some foundation to that and clarifies all the ragged edges.

http://www.star.com.tr/ekonomi/ikby-6-ayda-95-milyon-varil-petrol-ihrac-etti-haber-1370712/

"IKBY has exported 95 million barrels of oil in 6 months
The Iraqi Kurdish Regional Government (IKBY) said it had exported 95 million barrels of oil to the pipelines and tankers in a total of 3 billion 853 million dollars in the second half of 2017.

According to an oil export transparency report drafted by the US-based inspection and consulting company Deloitte on the request of the IKY, the Erbil administration will export 95 million barrels of oil in total by pipelines and tankers in the second half of 2017, about 3 billion 853 million dollars earned income.

KRG by the government, the appointed that company's reports on alleged corruption by the opposition, with ıkby'n port to the pipeline to Ceyhan on Turkey 1 June to 31 December 2017 between 90 million, while in tankers 5 million barrels of oil was exported by the information.

Raporda stated that an average price of 3 billion 648 million was exported from pipelines, 205 million dollars from tanker exports, 44 for pipelines and 39 dollars for tankers.

Deloitte noted that the IKBY has not found any dispute between oil exporting reports previously published by the public and the data they have gained."

If true, 95MMstb in H2-2017 equates to approx. 520Mbopd.

Can this be true - and if so, does it then mean that production from the Khurmala / Bai Hassan / Kirkuk / Jambur fields etc. are now being transported northwards via the Kurd pipe?

The company didn't say it would be completed in any specific month.

They did say:
Company continues its dialogue with the MNR and MOL in order to achieve further contractual and commercial clarity in relation to amendments of the Shaikan PSC which it ANTICIPATES being concluded in Q3 2018.

Anticipation in such business announcements generally means "expects".

The classical meaning of Anticipation, however, has rather more to do with emotions - pleasure, excitement, or anxiety in relation to an expected event.

GKP is not very good at managing expectations...

VANCOUVER, July 26, 2018 /CNW/ - ShaMaran Petroleum Corp. ("ShaMaran" or the "Company") (TSX VENTURE: SNM) (Nasdaq Stockholm First North: SNM) is pleased to report that two further Atrush production wells, Chiya Khere 7 ("CK-7") and Chiya Khere 10 ("CK-10"), came online on July 23, 2018 and July 25, 2018, respectively.

The Atrush Field is currently producing at approximately 26,000 barrels of oil per day ("bopd"). It is planned to further increase production gradually.

CK-7 was completed and tested in March and April 2018. During the final completion test the well produced 7,040 bopd at a low drawdown. Based on the test results the well is expected to be capable of producing over 10,000 bopd.
The CK-10 well was spudded on May 15, 2018 was drilled to a total depth of 1,985 metres, which was reached on time and within budget on June 16, 2018. The well flow tested approximately 4,400 bopd at a low drawdown.

The Chiya Khere 9 ("CK-9") water disposal well was spudded on July 20, 2018. The planned well depth is around 3,000 metres and is expected to be drilled in around 70 days. The main objective of CK-9 is to target deep horizons below the oil reservoir to allow to dispose of salt water due to the ongoing salt management strategy and any possible future water production.

-------

The SNM Feb-2018 Presentation (P8) has a good cross-section thru the Atrush producing formations. I believe CK-10 is drilled from the same pad as CK-7.

Good morning CCC,

nice to see someone starting to use their head!

Firstly, we need to put aside JG's over-optimistic assertions from long ago; just look at his 10 - 12Mbopd spoutings in Kuala Lumpur.

Let's start from where we currently are - that's about 32Mbopd.

To my knowledge, we have never driven the PFs higher than about 43Mbopd; as to why that is, we have not been told. We were told, however, and again by JG, that the PFs could deliver substantially more than their nameplate capacity. By "substantially more" I would tend to think he meant in the region of 25% - so perhaps 50Mbopd?
There (at least) three possibilities why the PFs never held such a high level of output:
1. Not enough oil flow (pressure, fractures, formation damage, etc, etc)
2. Too much gas in the oil (throttles back your above-ground processing capability)
2.1 Too high attempted draw-down (flow, pressure) leading to 2 above
3. Fluids other than oil in the flow (same limitations as in 2 above)
3.1 Too high attempted draw-down (flow, pressure) leading to water intake from lower aquifer.

Both 2.1 & 3.1 above are reservoir management issues and could possibly result from gas- or water coning. A study of reservoir pressure, crude bubble point(s), gas depletion etc. would be worthwhile.

Coming back to the main thrust of your Qs - which revolve around the 40Mbodp issue, SH wells in the past delivered around 4 - 5Mbopd, so you could be forgiven for thinking that another well would give the same - perhaps bring us back up to 36 - 37Mbopd.

So, it begs the Q that you pose: what (extra) will the 3+1 ESPs deliver?

I have my own ideas on this, and some others share these.

Look around at the utter dross being posted by the spreadbetters, the "it's all about the barrels", "sold by Christmas", etc, etc, etc.
Ask yourself every day, every hour: who is trying to con who here.

I pose questions and yes, I tweak the tails of those creeps whose only riposte is to accuse you of trolling.

There are very few real investors left here - there are lots of SP surfers present and they all want you to provide the wave power.

I generally enjoy your posts by the way.