Taconic - again1 Sep 2018 10:52
It’s clear to me that, at a very simplistic level (i.e. whether considering the 0.83p new shares price or even the 1.19p at restart of dealings), Taconic seems to have made a very nice profit on selling their (last) holding.
What’s not at all clear, however (and bearing in mind that they also took the 1:100 Big Hit in that restructuring), is what their Average Buying Price was prior to the restructuring; what the total cost to them was of being able to "profit" (eventually) from this restructure.
It's quite possible that Oilman is correct that they have "wanted out" for some time at 130p - 150p, but I don't think you can work back from that and assume that their pre-restructure average was so extremely low that they could now balance their losses.
I also don't think you should assume their exit to be linked to any new or more detailed knowledge of SH field output- or production issues, or even with new- or unknown FDP issues.
The next big news or operational update expected from GKP will contain some really exciting stuff - both positive and less so. The news expected in the next few weeks should, hopefully, take the edge off some of the more extreme negative views - but the revised FDP, if fully detailed, will contain enough to keep some chewing for a while.
Until I learn otherwise I tend to take the view that Taconic simply called it wrong, had to bite the bullet (i.e. stay with it a bit longer) and eventually took advantage of the rising SP to exit with a small vestige of their Hedge Fund reputation intact. Once bitten, twice shy now has probably greater relevance to their future view of Kurdistan oilies; the shares went to willing hands so I'm encouraged by that.
Has anyone else actually run the potential numbers on their “Profit”?
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