Member Info for BroadfordBay

Jeremy Asher was never seen, or hired, as a miracle worker.
He, along with the other Non-Execs, was seen as someone who would try to bring some balance to a board of directors which seemed willing to kowtow to all of Kozel’s extravagances & wishes.
That he was willing to take the risk says a lot about the man; that he was ultimately unable to win the battle against Barzani’s Bagman, Abdullah Abdul Rahman Abdullah, cannot be held against him.
I’m happy to be counted as one of JA’s supporters.

You say: “I think these people lost their money – and their dreams with it” – this show you for the true fraud you really are. YOU and your shadows, here and on the other BB who post 24/7, are the ones who cannot honestly acknowledge the fact that you have all been conned and lost out – not only that, you have been part and parcel of the continuous selling of the story that ”everything is fine with the company, don’t listen to those who sow doubts”. The people, and I am one of them, who lambast the company are the ones who sold out in a timely manner and who try to point out to the gullible what dangers there are in believing the frauds like you.
I sold at a good profit immediately after the CPR slaughtered Reserves number, and I informed the BB at the time.

As CCC has just pointed out, the doubts have been rolling in for years. The lack of appreciation of just how much responsibility the BOD of this company has towards shareholders large and small must be pointed out continuously.
JF has not been good for the company; he is in my opinion, and as I have already opined, just a Salary Man.
The lack of a vigorous- and challenging board of directors has more or less finished-off the company - the other issues, ranging from DAESH, to Kirkuk, to Art #140, to the O&G Law, to POO are just smoke which partly obscure the basic problem; Management.

Why on earth would you expect to see any sort of Moral Compass being exhibited by an oil company - an oil company, moreover, that has “worked well” with KRI officials for so many years? On all sides, both in KRI and in the rest of Iraq, they have seen only one lesson being taught: fill your pockets while you can.

These people answer to no-one, and their sense of entitlement has not been diminished by recent events. Contrary to what we might wish to believe, They Don’t Work For You: they work for themselves. They invent reward schemes (with the blessing of such pseudo-“control instances” such the FCA etc) which, in better- and less stressful times, times actually made some sense but in this make-or-break period facing the global oil industry they are unable to make the adjustment and become better corporate citizens. The New Notes holders are secure with their 10% coupon and their debt seniority, don't expect any support there.

The company is a rancid and hollow shell of self-interest – and these interests are most certainly NOT yours. The lack of vision (and the necessary cojones) to lead a breakout from this corporate death-spiral is remarkable.

Do not yet your emotions rule your lives; take the hit if necessary and move on.

In my opinion there is zero chance of the Kurdish region being given independence, whether by a new referendum or by "supportive pressure" by the US / Russia / any other country.

Why do I believe that?

Simply because allowing the Iraqi Kurds their own sovereign state would open the floodgates to the other substantial Kurdish minorities in N. Iraq, N. Syria, South-Eastern Turkey and North-West Iran.
Don't forget also the Turkmen ethnic minority, who are pretty widely spread over Northern & Central Iraq all the way down to Baghdad.

Do not expect the major powers to welcome another 50 - 100 years of conflict and associated Nation-Creating convulsions.

CCC,
No, my post doesn't lie - and this is what I expect will happen.
I write in English, for people who fully understand that language. I cannot help it if you chose to otherwise interpret these words, or read into them what you want.

The use of Heading For is not tied in any way to a timeline - that's just your bias showing.

CCC,
Pull me up indeed!
My dear chap I need to correct you: I never said that the SP would visit the 40s "this morning".
I believe it will revisit that level but the milk of human optimism (allied with a lack of ability to properly interpret what has just been published), however, will ensure that it stays above that level for a few days, before IMO starting to decline.

The report was anything but positive, but please continue to believe who you want to believe.

Operating Expenses are those expenses which are DIRECTLY related to the production of the oil and which can be reclaimed via the Cost Oil formula.
Total company running costs are much greater than the figures you mention.

Any significant reduction in output from KRG-operated fields would result in a reduced quality Kurdish blend (heavier, more sour, more %S) and therefore a different and lower Export Price for the KRG blend.
The largest potential contributor is probably the Khurmala field (ca 33°API, 2.3%S, potential output 200Mbopd - 250Mbopd).

Is this the trade-off for an important Ministerial Position down in Baghdad?

rhena,

why don't you publish under your real, your original, moniker?

I believe I said that I expected Crude to drop to ca $15/bbl - not $10 but then truth was never one of you attributes was it?

We'll see what the delayed Annual Results show & say.

Bloomberg and others are reporting that Iraq is planning to increase April exports by ca 200Mbopd.

That number is close to what the last "deal" was with the KRG, leading me to wonder if an emergency deal has been agreed, once again, with the KRG in order to bring in some cash to a severely damaged country.

If that is the case, then we might, just might, see some sort of limited payment being made to the oil cos - perhaps in May?

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/oil-price-war-iraq-join-commodity-market-russia-saudi-arabia-2020-3-1029050933

...might be better than absolutely nothing.

An agreement, either with MNR or their surrogate KAR, to buy some / all oil and contribute a small sum - perhaps $2M - $3M per month - would be much better than mothballing both PFs.
It would also show the bondholders (and the auditors) that the company had at least a chance of surviving the forthcoming bloodbath.
With the agreement of all concerned, the outstanding sums could be converted to contract term extension.

Off course, the same terms would have to be given to all the neighbours.

Any issues that I might have with people I respect, whether it's with regard to language used or general content, will be dealt with in a private manner between us.

You can demand what you like; the provocative- and ill-mannered & common language you use defines you even more so than your own internet troll lies and deceit.

from the PSC:
The intention of the Parties is that Force Majeure shall receive the interpretation that complies most with prudent international petroleum industry practice.

The US responded with an attack on the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces at their base near Al-Hassyan / Albukamal, and killed at least 18 fighters.
There will be a severe reaction against this attack, as Baghdad likes to consider such Iranian-backed forces as their own martyrs.

barnyards,
some more hard facts...

Who said this (hint - it wasn't me):
As a consequence of the ongoing discussions for an amended PSC for Shaikan and the political complexities of the
region, the assessment of the recoverable amount of Shaikan remains a key judgement. We also considered there to
be a potential fraud risk that the assumptions applied to the impairment assessment could be subject to conscious or
unconscious bias.
Additionally, as a result of the debottlenecking programme which commenced during the year, the value of the costs
capitalised to the Shaikan asset increased from $8.1 million in 2017 to $35.7 million in 2018; we therefore consider there
to be a risk of inappropriate costs being capitalised rather than expensed.

Cash at bank ca $195M
MarCap ca £288M or $375M

2019 HIGHLIGHTS
Operations
Achieved significant milestone: Total oil exported from the Atrush field since commissioning in 2017 reached 25 million barrels in February 2020.
Strong production performance: Atrush produced 46% more oil in 2019 compared to 2018 production (32,393 barrels of oil per day ("bopd") vs. 22,157 bopd) and was within production guidance range of 30,000 to 35,000 bopd. Production trended up throughout the year and in Q4.2019 was 52% more than in Q4.2018 production (41,648 bopd vs. 27,426 bopd).
Since the CK-15 well came online in December, Atrush average daily production was over 47,450 bopd and, during this period, intermittently reached the upper range of our exit rate guidance of 50,000 bopd.

Increased capacity throughout the year: Atrush well capacity was in excess of the newly deployed processing capacity by end of 2019, mainly due to a drilling campaign which delivered four production wells ahead of schedule and under budget resulting in an increase by 24,000 bopd.
Of the total increase, 8,000 bopd came online in Q4.2019 through the completion of the CK-15 well. Atrush production capacity increased to over 50,000 bopd by end of 2019, up by more than 20,000 bopd over last year end due to upgrades and debottlenecking of the Atrush Permanent Production Facilities ("PF-1") and the addition of an Early Production Facility ("EPF").

Are you aware of the expression "hoist by his own petard"?

The achievement of the 55Mbopd target now takes precedence over all others. Why? Because otherwise that'll be his nemesis.

The Gas Project, with all its accompanying implications, now moves to 2021-22.

theoryman,

any interpretation of "what's down there" and all evaluations of what you interpret from such data have to be subject to ongoing refinement, a continuous plugging the latest data back into the model.
As all seismic data collection appears to be complete(?), the refinements will have to come from additional well- and flow data. As the company appears to be doing all the right things with regards to understanding the formations, their fractures, fracture orientation etc, I see no chance of a meaningful CPR revision being possible until several new wells have been drilled and their flow results, in conjunction with the ongoing interpretation of (decreasing) flow results from the existing wells. That will take time.
The recent disappointing SH9 well, which hit unexpected geological formation issues, illustrate that, with the best will in the world, the interpretation of seismic data in conjunction with geological formation data from other wells cannot be relied upon 100%.
The SH field is very fractured and broken up, and it seems every new well is discovering new issues - issues that place in question those wonderful numbers from the earliest interpretation.
IMO TaqTaq field confirms this view, as does the recent reduction in Tawke field output.
At ca 65MMB total output to date it would appear that GKP has hit these issues somewhat earlier than have some others.

They say that big fields just get bigger, but what gets bigger is not always the recoverable OIP.

Often it's just the headaches...

Mikey,

the CPR is a professional- & independent Evaluation of the Company's (new) FDP - i.e. their proposed business plan to realise the development potential of their assets - COUPLED WITH a techno- /commercial evaluation of ALL the the underlying commercial-, geological- & petro-chemical data / parameters to be considered.

As you say, without a new FDP there can be no updated CPR.

Likewise, without new data there can be no new, meaningful, FDP or CPR.

I would say that, in this context, New Data equates to New Wells and associated Production Data.

While the production data from existing wells may be there, the data from new wells is not.

...says the biggest stranger to the truth of the lot.