The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
@putup
Cash $112 as per Aug 31st (H1-2022 results).
Dividend $25M out on Oct 7th.
Less 47 days cash burn.
I'll stay with my $60M approximation...
Still no payment for June.
109 days since July 1st, when June invoice was presented.
Cash now down to ca $60M or so.
Are the hosts trying to tell us something?
****eye,
I don't believe Putin will accomplish ALL of his objectives but he will, for sure, manage to hold on to a major portion of what has already been annexed; whether Crimea will be part of that at the end of the day is still uncertain.
I believe a deal will somehow be hammered out with the West, a dirty deal if you like, but one that will enable a sort of peace for a few decades at least.
The worst thing the West can do, and this is borne out by what happened after WW1, is to try to "rub the Russian's noses in it".
The SP is reflecting an increasing nervousness at KRG's payments record, and other GKP production issues that have not yet been shared by the company.
Since 4/4/22 payments have been made at 23/28/28/23/41/48 day intervals (assumes June payment tomorrow 12th).
The June payment is now 104 days overdue.
The cash-at-bank situation looks pretty poor without the expected June payment - I make it around $66M.
I found the news I posted earlier about Total extremely relevant, but that didn't suit your particular agenda, did it?
Here it is again:
Seismic headache forces major delay to TotalEnergies' $10 billion Suriname project
LACK OF CORRELATION BETWEEN WELL DATA AND SEISMIC DATA gives supermajor's geophysicists a sore head
(CAPS are mine)
Think about it...
Old news, and inaccurately reported by ekurd...
Aug 3 (Reuters) - U.S. oil producer Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) is in the process of transitioning its 30% stake in a Russian oil development "to another party," according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Wednesday.
Hundreds of energy and consumer goods companies including BP, Equinor, Pepsico, Shell and Starbucks have left the country or transferred assets as a result of Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine.
Exxon did not name the other party in its filing. It was the operator of Sakhalin-1, a large oil and gas development in Russia's Far East, which produced 220,000 barrels of oil and gas per day as recently as 2021.
Earlier this year, Exxon took a $4.6 billion impairment charge for exiting the development, its largest investment in Russia.
A senior Russian lawmaker said on July 8 that Moscow would take control of the Sakhalin-1 oil and gas project that included Exxon Mobil (XOM.N), Japan's SODECO, India's ONGC Videsh as well as Russian energy giant Rosneft (ROSN.MM). Its output fell to just 10,000 bpd following Western sanctions on Russian commerce.
Aug 3 (Reuters) - U.S. oil producer Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) is in the process of transitioning its 30% stake in a Russian oil development "to another party," according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Wednesday.
Hundreds of energy and consumer goods companies including BP, Equinor, Pepsico, Shell and Starbucks have left the country or transferred assets as a result of Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine.
Exxon did not name the other party in its filing. It was the operator of Sakhalin-1, a large oil and gas development in Russia's Far East, which produced 220,000 barrels of oil and gas per day as recently as 2021.
Earlier this year, Exxon took a $4.6 billion impairment charge for exiting the development, its largest investment in Russia.
A senior Russian lawmaker said on July 8 that Moscow would take control of the Sakhalin-1 oil and gas project that included Exxon Mobil (XOM.N), Japan's SODECO, India's ONGC Videsh as well as Russian energy giant Rosneft (ROSN.MM). Its output fell to just 10,000 bpd following Western sanctions on Russian commerce.
...and out of the woodwork they crawl, throwing their their kni**ers onto the stage in adoration of the company performance!
A quick look at what the most recent wells have contributed confirms what I say.
The company hasn't performed - it's only the overblown crude price that has saved their bacon.
I'm not a "paid troll", but if that calms your nerves, if that's what floats your boat, keep going by all means.
Not GKP-specific, but highlights nevertheless the dangers and financial implications when your wonderful hi-tech 3D Seismics do not correlate well with what your drill actually finds down there (GKP have a similar, albeit not so expensive, story to tell):
Seismic headache forces major delay to TotalEnergies' $10 billion Suriname project
Lack of correlation between well data and seismic data gives supermajor's geophysicists a sore head
https://www.upstreamonline.com/field-development/seismic-headache-forces-major-delay-to-totalenergies-10-billion-suriname-project/2-1-1328295?utm_term=upstream
GKP does not have the wherewithal to develop their gas resources, that's why I didn't mention it (2nd reason was to give you something to do).
GKP's gas output at the moment is too small to develop on its own.
Longer term, the cost to develop KRG gas infrastructure and processing will have to be shared with the adjacent field developers.
NAGGS will cost a lot of money - not all of which the contractors are willing to put up.
Could...would...should...might...
The Iraq government wants the gas reserves of Iraq to be developed and utilized within Iraq for electricity generation.
From KurdPress yesterday:
https://kurdpress.com/en/news/2973/US-foundations-release-real-amount-of-Kurdistan-Region-oil-reserves/
US Foundations release real a mount of Kurdistan Region Oil Reserves
Two American foundations said in a statement that the real amount of the Kurdistan Region oil reserves is not 45billion barrels but it is about 4 billion barrels.
The two institutes of Ristad and US Energy Information Administration stated in separate reports that the amount of the Kurdistan Region oil reserves is about 3.7 billion barrels. The reports have reiterated the amount of the reserves is in the regions under the control of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and it does not include the disputed region's which both Erbil and Baghdad claim authority over.
The two institutes have stated in their reports that according to some estimations there are 45 barrels of oil in the region but the estimation includes the reserves that have not been proved and also the crude oil reserves in the disputed regions including Kirkuk which Kurds lost their control after the 2017 referendum of
independence.
Note: Ristad should read Rystad Energy.
Reported on Zawya.com, 23/9/22
Nadim Kawach, edited by Anoop menon
A $27-billion oil deal between France’s TotalEnergies and OPEC producer Iraq has failed to materialise because of the French firm’s refusal of terms for partnership with the Iraqi National Oil Company (INOC), the local press reported on Friday.
The new Iraqi government in 2021 also failed to “detail the legal status of INOC” which indicated that the company was not totally legalised, they said.
“Total refused to complete the contract with Iraq after it rejected terms for partnership with INOC,” Aliqtisad News and other Iraqi publications reported, quoting Iraq Deputy Bassim Khashan.
In a brief post on the social media, Khashan added: ”This is because the new government and the parliament have not yet outlined the legal status of the INOC in full…
Total interpreted it as an indication that INOC has yet to be legalised.”
Khashan said the government’s failure to take a clear decision on INOC “prevented other major deals” which were due to be finalised by the Oil Ministry.
In February, it was reported that the $27 billion contract that Baghdad hoped would reverse the exit of oil majors from Iraq, has stalled amid disputes over terms and risks being scrapped by the country’s new government.
Iraq has struggled to attract major fresh investments into its energy industry since signing a flurry of post US-invasion deals over a decade ago.
TotalEnergies agreed last year to invest in four oil, gas and renewables projects in the southern Basra region over 25 years.
Last week, the company announced that it has completed the divestment of its 18 percent interest in the onshore Sarsang oil field in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, to ShaMaran Petroleum Corp for a firm consideration of $155 million.
@theoryman,
ref your "seeds of doubt" posting and the 10th Dec2019 Ops Update:
9 Months later, in the 2020-H1 Results of 3rd Sept-2020 (Operational Review), was planted a further seed of doubt, as follows.
"...The top three projects - SH-9 final commissioning, COMPLETION OF SH-12 IN THE MAIN UPPER JURASSIC RESERVOIR and further debottlenecking of PF-1 to increase production capacity from the current 24,000 bopd to over 30,000 bopd - are expected to increase gross production by approximately 5,000 bopd for a total cost of c.$3 million gross...".
(CAPS are mine)
Confirmation that the Co was moving SH-12 producer up from the previous lower producing level. No supporting story, just slipping it in.
Re the water issue, take the use of the word Trace - normally taken in this context to mean a minute and often barely detectable amount or indication.
The company has form in not mentioning things, and when they are mentioned, of downplaying their significance.
@putup,
I disagree - of course it's the company that pays for the Capex, initially.
How we get that Capex repaid (via CO) is governed by the daily output and the price of crude...and of course by the MNR's continued willingness to honour their agreements.
We don't yet know what any potential FDP might contain - how kind, or otherwise, it might prove to be in respect of large, up-front capital outlays. For that reason alone it would be very unwise for the company to pay out any more enormous dividends.
cat,
it's late and I'm tired, so forgive me if I ask you to expand on the "overlap of $15M"'
Thanks
Starting from your last Q: why can't we be informed...
Quite simply because the Company does not want to bring an end to the good Mood Music (aka dividends).
Keep quiet about the bad stuff, emphasise ANY good stuff you can find.
SH-16 well costs: these could vary say between $15M and $30M - even more if their contractor makes a mess of it (has happened before at SH, and more than once).
The Capex difference ($120M - $95M) of ca $25M is mainly due to the increased costs associated with the water handling modules that are now urgently needed.
The company had reserved an already-completed module (spec is known to the savvy ones here) at a lower price, but the results coming from the NE end of the field have shown that the design spec (water handling capacities) are inadequate, and a new spec module is now on the cards; costs more money.
As SH-16 is only due on-stream “towards year-end”, it will be impossible to achieve average 50Mbopd this year, and we should consider the lower end of the guidance range (ca 45Mbopd) as much more realistic. Even if #16 gives say 4,500bopd, a quick check of the disappointing monthly output chart in the 14th Sept presentation will show that 2 months extra output does not change the year’s average much at all.
So, to the heart of your questions, the issue of the 55Mbopd “target”:
To my knowledge, the latest specs for the water handling modules (assuming no more SNAFUs) will deal with production level of 55Mbopd – with the necessary qualifications that the additional well #16 will indeed give you ca 4,500bopd, and that the cleaning up of several wells stops the decline in their outputs.
There is indeed some Bleeding going on, but don’t expect the doctor to tell you – the patient needs to be kept quiet.
Do not be fooled by misleading headline numbers...
Sarsang produces high 36-39 API, low sulphur oil with lowest Brent discount in region
Shaikan produces LOW 14-17 API, HIGH sulphur oil with HIGHEST Brent discount in region
You cannot attempt to value Shaikan simply by extrapolating Sarsang numbers.
2nd Q was from Charlie Sharp at Canaccord
Yes. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Just two small questions, if I may. Firstly, on the water handling, what’s the critical path item or items that we should be sort of on the lookout for in terms of the timing to have that work completed? And then secondly, on the field development plan, are there any sticking points? It seems as though in the past, you have been quite close to getting approval, I just wonder if there are any sort of particular outstanding issues?
A from Jon Harris
Okay. The first one on critical path for water handling, we are kind of pursuing two routes with that. One is, we are looking at getting an existing unit that was basically produced for somebody else who then decided they didn’t want it. So, that’s an existing piece of equipment. However, that’s only one part of kind of processing train. So, we also have to look at water heaters to heat the oil, so that we can affect separation. And also there is a whole bunch of utilities that go with that. So, I would say in that particular path, the critical path is through the water heater, and the utilities and not actual critical piece of equipment. The second path we are going for is we have gone out to tender for new build items, a new build water handling package…and that critical path is through the tendering and construction probe process once we selected somebody. So, hopefully that answered that question. Your second question was around, are there any particular sticking points within the FDP, I don’t actually think so. I think we are just working towards kind of an agreed level of activity with the state. And essentially, it’s like it’s a refinement point, so, I wouldn’t say that we don’t think we can close out on the agreed scope for the next – the first 1st phase of the field development plan. So, I don’t think there is any particular sticking points, I think we will get there.
I listened carefully to the Earnings Call of Sept 1st and was VERY unimpressed with the quality of the questioning by the "analysts" present.
2 Questions only - No penetrating questioning whatsoever.
This is what I heard:
1st Q was from Werner Riding of Peel Hunt and was about the recent press reports of US support for KRG
Yes. I guess on geopolitics. I saw some comments yesterday in the press from the U.S., which I guess were supportive for the standing of Kurdish PSC. But not notwithstanding that there are reports of service companies, also like Halliburton and Baker Hughes stepping back from tenders and contracts because of Iraq’s decision to brand the PSC as unconstitutional. So, I was wondering if you are seeing any impact on your activities or all the services you need still available, and is that going to filter through for cost inflation ultimately on your operation.
A from Jon Harris
Okay. Werner, thank you. I think I am not quite sure what prompted the U.S. sort of letter in the press yesterday. I am not sure what drives that, as we are not party to that. And similarly, we don’t – we understand from the media that the service contractors potentially have received a letter requesting them to stop working in Kurdistan, if they want to continue to work in Iraq, but again we are also not party to that. Currently, our operations are unaffected by that and we continue to discuss with our subcontractors and contractors around their continued working for us. And that’s the current situation.
also from Werner Riding
Okay. Has there been any shift or any signs of inflation coming through in costs as a result of some of these sorts of issues?
A from Jon Harris
I am not sure we have started – we have seen pressure on costs, and on scheduled delivery times, just with the world supply chain disruption. And oil prices, obviously increasing putting up manufacturing costs. And that is coming through where we don’t have agreed rates in some of our contracts, which means we are not seeing pressure in all areas. But we have not seen pressure on the costs from the dispute between the governments I would say, it’s for other reasons. It’s not due – to do with the fact of that quarrel.
To my knowledge there has never been an official notification of transfer of Texas Keystone's 5% interest in the Shaikan PSC.
It was said by GKP directors, several times over many years, that it was a simple paperwork procedure but it has still not been closed off...why?