Strategy5 May 2021 21:56
A lot of hype here being newish type of exploration to many PIs... the great hunt for helium.
So you could buy now and hope to 3-4bag (£1) on a helium hit 1st well. That is good, but a lot of risk to someone buying at 22p. Sorry, but you're late to the party if you're thinking of buying now.
The 2010 Falklands oil campaign taught me a good few tactics. The hype was there back then - wildcat drilling of the north and south basin... oil seeps from FOGL's elephant size loligo prospect (turned out to be uneconomical gas condensate).
DES (Desire petroleum) was the main operator for the multiple companies sharing the Ocean Guardian rig. Anyway, DES, RKH, BOR and FOGL share prices rocked on the build up (like HE1). Then the first well was a duster... share price collapsed in all companies. Then, 2nd drill Sealion was oil discovery... share prices miltiple bagged. RKH that hit the oil 10-bagged in 3 days.
As I said, risky odds for a new "investor" now. If you were serious about HE1 you'd invested at 5-8p where it was after IPO.
In my opinion a good way to have played HE1 was to invest big at 8p... big top-slice at 20p+ to give yourself a free carry. Then wait for the first drill. This is what I have done. If Tai is a duster the share price will fall to around 5p... then you're a high-risk type. At least the upside will be a 20-bagger instead of a 4-bagger. If they hit 1st well you still have your "free carry".
Or, if you're thinking of jumping in but concerned the risk-reward is currently low (4-bagger risk not that great compared to the downside) you could gamble by waiting out the 1st well... then jump in at 5p. If they hit 1st well... oh well, you miss out or you could jump in at £1 and hope the remaining wells hit and you still get your 5-bagger.
Depends on your risk appetite. I have a free carry on this after selling half yesterday... and will see what the 1st well result is.
Each to their own strategy of course.