Member Info for briansmith100000

Forgot about the £3.1m back from the Aussie Gov't, so that gives CFU around £6.1m, enough to last just 4 months.

The next CFU cashflow report is due out the week of 22-26 July. Quoting myself: "26 Apr '13 - Bluegen.net is still only showing 265 units installed. Only 20 BG's installed in 4 months, 60 per annum." 11 July - 275 installed. If that is the same number on results day it will be 10 units installed in 3 months, so down to 40 per annum. It gets worse.... Net operating cash outflow for the March quarter was £4.4m Cash on hand at 31 March was £2.4m 03 May 2013 raised £5m Total cash pot post 31 March £7.4m Burn rate of £4.4m per quarter only leaves CFU with £3m in cash, not enough to last another quarter year. What happens next, fund raising or default of the loan?

http://www.bluegen.info/freebluegen That screams of how desperate CFU are to sell ANY systems. Bog all sold in the last 6 months even with FIT's in place. I look forward to the next quarterly cash flow report where I expect minimal sales and no reduction in cash burn, so further fund raising will need to happen later this year as I predicted all along. How much will the BG finance cost CFU? They can't expect someone to take a free BG then pay for it through the nose, so CFU must be losing some money going via finance (the interest on it) instead of taking a cash sale. In retail it's called a 'loss leader' and boy do CFU need it.

As I have said, BES is a good bet for a recovery play, the risk is continually decreasing. Blavod Wines & Spirits - execution of new strategy continues, turnaround potential? By Steven Moore — Friday 14 June 2013 Blavod Wines & Spirits (BES), the AIM-listed owner of alcoholic drinks brands including ‘Blavod’ original black vodka and ‘RedLeg’ spiced rum, has announced that, as per a strategy to focus on the development of its owned brands, with effect from 1st July it will cease to distribute Bruichladdich distillery brands in the UK. This announcement follows the end of last month announcements that the company had acquired Blackwood’s, the Shetland-based distillers of gin and vodka brands, as well as the Diva and Jago brands and had signed an agreement for its brands to be distributed in the UK and Ireland by multi-brand drinks distributor Hi-Spirits Ltd. This is as Blavod is to now focus on brand development and marketing rather than further building an own sales and distribution network – noting “this operational model is far more efficient in terms of the number of people needed within our team and so capable of generating much higher returns for shareholders”. Although in the financial year ended 31st March 2013, the Bruichladdich distillery brands represented approximately 27% of group sales net of duty, Blavod has already reduced its ongoing cost base and in its December-released interim results noted “the directors believe that the company has sufficient working capital to implement its strategy”. Market conditions were said to “remain difficult as many retailers aggressively price promote to secure sales. However, premium brands are performing well in many categories and are showing promising growth”. In an analysis last month, I noted that the company has to now prove its new strategy but now led by Don Goulding, a former senior executive of industry major Diageo who increased his involvement at Blavod into an executive role on the departure of the company’s Managing Director in late 2011, this is at last perhaps a version of the turnaround promise worth monitoring. With the new strategy continuing to be executed and the shares unchanged from that update at 0.90p, capitalising the company at £2.75 million, this remains my view. http://www.shareprophets.com/views/679/blavod-wines-spirits-execution-of-new-strategy-continues-turnaround-potential

Someone else has cottoned on to the BES recovery ;-) By Steven Moore - Friday 31 May 2013 - Blavod Wines & Spirits (BES) is a company I have long, very disappointingly, followed – with it continually apparently having been on the verge of a turnaround but never really delivering. I write on it today as it has announced the acquisitions of brands Blackwood’s (gin and vodka), Jago’s (vodka cream liqueur) and Diva (super-premium vodka) and the signing of a three year agreement for the distribution in the UK and Ireland of its portfolio of owned brands with Hi-Spirits Ltd – a multi-brand distributor formed in 2002.The moves reflect a strategy to be focused on owned brands and brand development and marketing rather than committing resources to continuing to build its own UK sales and distribution network. Blavod notes that although there will be one-off costs associated with exiting these activities, “over the longer term the company expects the reduced cost base will improve margins and profits”. The company has been distributor for Blackwood’s, Jago’s and Diva since 2008 and is now paying £50,000 to acquire the former and a nominal £1 each for the two latter. It specifically notes that in “the year ended 31 March 2012, the Blackwood’s licence was responsible for £358k of sales net of duty and £102k of contribution”.More recently, the company reported an underlying loss of £191,000 for the six months ended 30th September 2012 and ended that period with net debt of £1.10 million. It has however subsequently, at 0.75p per share, converted £0.44 million of debt into equity and completed a net £1.14 million placing – which it stated in the results announcement means “the directors believe that the company has sufficient working capital to implement its strategy”. The company explained the last results reflected that “delays in securing the recent refinancing have similarly delayed the implementation of the plan to develop our own brands” and that “market conditions remain difficult as many retailers aggressively price promote to secure sales. However, premium brands are performing well in many categories and are showing promising growth”.At a current 0.90p share price, Blavod is capitalised at just £2.75 million. The company has to now prove its new strategy but now led by Don Goulding, a former senior executive of industry major Diageo who increased his involvement at Blavod into an executive role on the departure of the company’s Managing Director in late 2011, this is at last perhaps a version of the turnaround promise worth monitoring. http://www.shareprophets.com/analysis/522/blavod-wines-spirits-turnaround-promise-now-worth-monitoring#sthash.RjpgnfN3.dpuf

I said BES was on a recovery, now I belive that the profits BES can see coming along for Blackwoods has spurred them to take the brands before they have to start sharing that profit with the former owners. Why else would you go for it at this time ;-)

Blackwoods sales must be going well for BES to do this ;-) 31 May 2013 Acquisition of Blackwood's, Diva and Jago Brands Blavod Wines & Spirits plc (AIM:BES), the AIM quoted owner of premium drinks brands is pleased to announce that it has acquired the Blackwood's, Jago's and Diva brands. Background Blavod acquired licences to distribute these brands in May, July and October 2008 respectively from the vendor, the administrator of Shetland Spirit Company Limited (in Administration). The terms of the Diva and Jago's brands' licences provided for four year licence terms, now expired, and following which Blavod has acquired the brands for £1 each from the vendor. The terms of the Blackwood's licence provided for a profit share with the vendor from the third year post acquisition through to the end of the seventh year and also gave Blavod the option to acquire the intellectual property rights at certain pre-specified dates for £1. The Company has reached agreement with the vendor for an early exercise of the option for the early acquisition of Blackwood's Gin and Vodka for a cash consideration of £50,000. In the latest period for which audited financial information is available, the year ended 31 March 2012, the Blackwood's licence was responsible for £358k of sales net of duty and £102k of contribution. Blackwood's Blackwood's produces both gin and vodka. Blackwood's Vintage Dry Gin is made with Shetland botanicals hand gathered during spring and summer months; these include sea pink, marsh marigold, angelica and meadow sweet which are then combined with juniper, coriander and other botanicals to give Blackwood's vintage dry gin a unique and complex flavour. Each Vintage is slightly different as every year the harvest varies depending on the weather. Also produced is a 60% ABV limited edition version, which is inspired by the North line of latitude of Shetland, the production of this is limited to reflect the population of Shetland. Blackwood's Nordic Vodka is currently three times distilled and cold filtered. Blackwood's Vintage Dry Gin is sold in a number of UK retail multiples including Sainsbury's and Tesco. Diva Diva Vodka is a super-premium, wheat-based vodka that is three times distilled for a smoother flavour. Enclosed in the bottle is a sparkling wand hand filled with 73 Swarovski elements, which can be removed and used as a garnish. Diva is available in 17 export markets. Jago Jago's Vodka Cream liqueur was created by Tom Jago, who was involved in the creation of the world's best selling cream liqueurs and one of the top twenty global drink brands of all time. Jago's Vanilla Vodka Cream Liqueur is made with three times distilled vodka, madagascan vanilla and 100% natural cream to give a flavour and mouth feel like no other cream on the market.

Here's another kick in the groin for payback calculations! Apparently Alliander will only be paying the home owner €0.10/kWh for power fed back to the grid. BUT as I stated in a previous post, the power that a BG injects into the grid is going to cost the home owner €0.10006 to generate, so there is NO PROFIT on excess electricity generated by a BG in this area!!!! I bet THAT isn't in the payback calculations either!! "The retail cost of gas in Germany is €0.06004 per kWh Natural Gas. With 60% efficiency a BG is producing power at a cost of €0.10006 per kWh. If you know what price a German BG owner can sell their spare electric to the grid then you know the value of the spark spread there.The average retail price of electric in Germany is €0.25983/kWh so a BG owner would be paid less than this so that the buyer made a profit on the deal." See: http://www.energy.eu/ "ten cents per kilowatt-hour (maximum 5,000 euros) for electricity fed into the grid." http://www.ceramicfuelcells.de/presse/news-details/brennstoffzellen-initiative-heinsberg-eroeffnet-weg-zum-eigenen-mikrokraftwerk/

Blackwoods Gin on special offer http://www.thedrinkshop.com/products/nlpdetail.php?prodid=2032 http://www.thedrinkshop.com/products/nlpdetail.php?prodid=2581

Following some more research I can update the sums for CFU reaching break even. March 11, 2013 "The applicant, a local bakery, was granted an amount of 13,000 Euros for the purchase of one BlueGEN unit, which equals 65% of the fundable investment costs." http://fuelcellsworks.com/news/2013/03/11/ceramic-fuel-cells-bluegen-technology-receives-substantial-state-subsidy/ €13,000 / 65 x 100 = €20,000 So €20,000 is the current price of a BG in North Rhine-Westfalia. CFU stated: "From December 2011 to December 2012 the Company has reduced the manufactured cost of the unit by approximately 26 percent, down to approximately €18,000 per unit." So the gross margin on a BG sold in North Rhine-Westfalia in March was €2,000, this is 11.11% on top of the €18,000 manufacturing cost for CFU, I had allowed 15%, seems I was being too generous. So now we can do the sums again, using the known profit margin of €2,000 per BG. Cash burn of £17,532,930 is €20,732,689 per annum at today's exchange spot rate. At a gross profit of €2,000 per BG, CFU need to sell 10,366 systems just to break even. With a system price of €20,000 can you see that happening this year? Next year?, even if the price drops to €18,000? I can see the debt is just going to mount up for the next few years. Where is the investment return going to come from when debt is mounting up at the rate of €20.7m a year and sales are nothing like what they need to be to end that problem?

Shares Magazine agrees with me that the turnaround IS UNDERWAY!! Blavod shows the right spirit Alcoholic drinks minnow on cusp of potential profits breakthrough Too many more contracts like last week’s (7 Mar) for RedLeg Rum and the market may be toasting a return to profit at Blavod Wines and Spirits (BES:AIM), where a turnaround under executive chairman and ex-Diageo (DGE) man Don Goulding is underway. Blavod’s premium brands include Blavod Black Vodka, Blackwoods Gin and RedLeg Rum, which it markets and sells in the UK as well as overseas markets including Russia and the US. Launched a year ago, spiced rum brand RedLeg is the first new product developed by the micro cap in several years. Aussie retail multiple Woolworths (WOW:ASX) has placed a chunky order to stock the brand in over 600 stores across Australia and New Zealand. This should help to establish the brand down under and give global sales a boost. Half-year figures (14 Dec) to September showed an increase in losses from £393,000 to £531,000 as Blavod was hindered by a delayed refinancing which in turn pushed back own brand investment. The £2.8 million cap now has the firepower to ramp up spend and grow exports, while increased distribution of Blackwood’s Vintage Dry Gin through Tesco (TSCO) and this latest deal down under could soon nudge the company towards break-even and a first annual profit since 2009. Shares says: Blavod is a speculative turnaround play. Buy at 0.9p. Issue Date: 14 Mar 2013 http://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/articles/small-cap-blavod

I keep saying, cut the staff by 50% and cut the Directors salaries by 50%, but now I think even that would not be enough as at best they would still need to be selling 5,000 per annum and quite frankly I cannot see where that level of sales is going to come from in the next 3 years.

Now CFU has £5m of debt and will likely need to raise another £5m+ in October, before it runs so low on cash that it's price gets hammered again. Also "The Loan Notes bear interest at a rate of 9 per cent. per annum which is paid by the Company quarterly in arrears." Interest of 9% on £5m is £450,000 per annum to add to the current cash burn of £17,082,930 makes £17,532,930 per annum. £5m of debt, how long will that take to pay back? Well first of all CFU has to make enough profit to negate the £17,532,930 cash burn, then it needs to make enough profit on top to pay the loan back. Quite mind boggling numbers to get your head around. Cost is the main issue facing uptake of the products. "A strategic imperative for the company is to reduce the unit cost of the BlueGen product. From December 2011 to December 2012 the Company has reduced the manufactured cost of the unit by approximately 26 percent, down to approximately €18,000 per unit. We are pursuing several options to continue to reduce unit costs including redesigning some high value components, outsourcing selected manufacturing and sub-assembly operations and internal process improvements." €18,000 per unit is £15,220. Suppose they make an operating profit of 15%, that is £2,283 per unit. At an operating profit of £2,283 per unit it would take ANNUAL sales of 7,679 units just to cover the current cash burn. It would take sales of a further 2190 on top to pay back the £5m loan. Double that if they get loaned another £5m in October, treble it if they get another £5m in Q2 2014. So already we are looking at CFU needing sales of circa 10,000 per annum over the next 3 years just to break even!! Some people on the BB's talk about 600 units for Germany, but the operating profit on that of around £1,369,800 won't even cover the company cash burn for ONE MONTH. (of £1,423,577.50) Blue sky? Looks more like black clouds from here!!

I was spot on about the opening price too, it opened through arbitrage at 3p, 20% down, in line with the current Aussi price. Dropped a further 3.3% over the day too. "Well done to CFU for getting a NOMAD. Next up the suspension of the stock will be lifted in the UK, then we will see how many holders want to run for the door. The price should be set to open at the UK equivalent of the Aussie price through arbitrage at 2.98p, a significant drop from the 3.75p it closed at when it was suspended."

http://www.kingofsohodrinks.com/ http://www.kingofsohogin.com/ Ideal in a gin tonic, 60% of taste testers voted Blackwood's Vintage Gin as their no.1 choice in blind taste tests and 80% placed it in their top two, against Gordon's, Tanqueray, Plymouth and Bombay Sapphire. http://www.drinksupermarket.com/blackwoods-vintage-dry-gin-70cl.html Gin review http://drinksenthusiast.wordpress.com/2013/04/07/blackwoods-tasting-notes/ On sale in Austria http://www.vinothek1.at/catalog.php?t=i&f=Typ&fv=Gin On sale in Belgum http://gintonicshop.be/french/gins/blackwoods-dry-gin.html On sale in Germany https://www.weinquelle.com/artikel/Blackwood_s_Vintage_Dry_Gin_60_Limited_Edition_7688.html On sale in Switzerland http://www.solostocks.com/venta-productos/bebidas-alcoholicas/ginebra/ginebra-blackwoods-7982785

RedLeg Review http://www.allstarcask.com/rum-reviews/redleg-review/ 3 May near Hove, England So, SLICE&BOHO COCKTAILS are TONIGHT from 7pm.. the first Friday of every month... the menu's looooooking goooood so far.... Negroni Eeevil ~ Blood Orange & Chilli Sorbet (Will be for the hardcore. Bitter, spicy and strong) Campari, Gin & Vermouth Mojito Slushie Red Lotus ~ Lychee & Cranberry based w/ Vodka & Cacacha <b>Redleg Vanilla Spiced Rum & Lime Gelato </b> After Dinner Mint Gelato https://www.facebook.com/slicesussex?filter=3 http://boxoffice.brightonfringe.org/event.aspx?evId=5312 RedLeg Rum Presents The E.M.E at Above Audio http://allevents.in/Brighton/RedLeg-Rum-Presents-The-EME-at-Above-Audio/581190015232735

Check out the type of deal that CFU SHOULD have got. 6.5% and a premium on the price, instead CFU got a deal that favours the bosses other company, go figure!! http://www.investegate.co.uk/iofina-plc--iof-/rns/successful-arrangement-of-us-15m-convertible-bond/201305080700121828E

Spotted by someone on the Aussie BB. As they say, this could potentially be a conflict of interest, as Alasdair Locke is a 6.56% (big holder) holder of Arden Partners. No mention of that in the RNS!! http://www.arden-partners.co.uk/shareholders.html

Figure on another £5m fund raising in 5 months time on the same basis as today's. By the time CFU reaches break-even(supposing they do in mid-2016) it will have run up debt of £50m which will take at least another 5 years to pay back from the profits.

"The Company expects that, with the addition of these funds, it will have sufficient working capital to meet its needs through to the end of calendar year 2013." On 31 March 2013 they had cash of £2,458,535. Add the £5m placing Add tax rebate of £3.3m Total £10,758,535 Current cash burn rate is £8,541,465 in 6 months (March quarterly report). £1,423,577.5 burnt per month £10,758,535 will therefore last 7.5 months But they will need to raise cash at least 2-3 months before they run out, so the next rund raising can be expected in just 5 months time!! I expect to see the same fun and games for holders around 2 October 2013! From and including: Friday, May 3, 2013 To and including: Wednesday, October 2, 2013 It is 153 days from the start date to the end date, end date included Or 5 months including the end date I will be sure to pop back and give you my thoughts at the time, but for now I suggest you all go back through the past 5 years of RNS and see how many times you can spot the same bullish statements from CFU, that have not yet transpired into the blue sky they promised. Good luck, you still need it by the ship load!! "Having proved the commercialisation of our technology we are now rapidly moving towards a major increase in the volumes sold by the Company. This fund raise will allow us to meet the working capital requirements of the initial phase of this ramp up and the Board considers that it would be in the best interests of shareholders to raise these funds in this manner to allow the Company to take advantage of these opportunities."