Market over-reaction14 Feb 2026 17:53
If gold price holds above $5k next week I believe the market will re-assess the emotional over-reaction to the MRE. I refer again to Turner Pope's analysis: While the estimated number of resource ounces is close to TPI’s initial production forecast of 238,000oz over a 12-year life-of-mine (‘LOM’) (as originally outlined on 18 September 2025), the overall declared Au grading is almost 22% higher. Reworking TPI’s model on this basis, while retaining metallurgical recovery at 87% and processing efficiency of 96.9%, the deposit is projected to have a low All-in Sustaining Cost (‘AISC’) of US$1,281/oz*. Prudently, then, factoring in the recent surge in gold prices to assume an average of US$4,400/oz over the production period (compared with US$3,300/oz previously), suggests the deposit has a NPV10% of US$189m along with an exceptional IRR of 162%.
Two important points to note:
1) NPV10% should increase to NPV50% as we move closer to production, which is on an expedited timeline compared to most traditional mine builds, being 1-2 years instead of 5-8 years. This is no trifle. This is almost immediately value accreditive.
2) IRR of 162%. I'll let others here who have been negative the past week find me a better IRR in the mining space. I am all ears. There is none, and that is why the market selling over-reaction will correct (gold staying steady/bullish ofc).