Member Info for breaktwister

Had a look at the TSX report, super light volume, less than 200k shares traded in the session. Sell off at the end of the day was triggered from nothing, no sells of more than 10k which is peanuts. In fact the biggest trade during the slam was a buy of 15,500 and they still slammed the price down.

The whole sector sold off hard, I think MM games to paint that 15% down on OMI. My thesis hasn't changed, I added this morning.

Https://www.royalroadminerals.com/news/royal-road-minerals-announces-176-metres-at-1-2-g-t-gold-equivalent-from-drilling-and-defines-expanding-bulk-tonnage-porphyry-skarn-system-at-guintar-colombia

My takeaways are this:

1) APTA will be a mine, the question is what kind of MRE is needed to assure the market that a mine will be economical. OMI cannot afford to spook the market with anymore "ugly" MREs. This should be the main focus at Anza imo.

2) The report says this about El Cedro:

Significant potential for porphyry copper-gold deposits is recognised on the Anzá property, notably at

the El Cedro prospect where surface geochemistry in rocks and soils shows a gold-coppermolybdenum association and A-style and B-style veining has been recorded. The interpretation of a

Miocene porphyry target is supported by proximity to the Güintar-El Alemán prospect, ~10 km to the

northwest, where drilling has intersected gold-rich porphyry-style and vein mineralisation related to a

dated Upper Miocene porphyry centre.

Genuinely excited now about El Cedro, not one but two porphyries in an area known for them. I'll go now and research Güintar-El Alemán

My view is that they have found something that would be worth a massive drill operation "5 rigs" but ofc do not have the cash to upscale to that.

Hopefully they have done enough to secure a good JV. Newmont or Unico may be interested. That will put further floor under the OMI share price.

Agree Rob. My view on El Pantano is that the motherlode is deep somewhere in the region, the "boiling zone" as it has been described. The 1st phase drilling was to try and pinpoint that, hence Brad's warnings about not expecting to hit high grade from surface like at Pepas. The fact that they decided to do some extra deeper holes at the end of phase 1 is good news as far as I am concerned. Visibile silver in the cores is also very good news even though it may not be high grade, it shows they are above the boiling zone.

All to play for here still, going to be a lot of news in 2026.

Was just testing my thesis with Claude this morning given Don Durrett's recent X post stating "no longer a development play". Don does a lot of work on junior miners and even he has fallen into the incorrect perception that the "ugly" (to use his word) Pepas MRE is a failure. The mistake here comes from the misunderstanding that the low resource will not cover the usual mine build CAPEX which is not the case at all as we all known Orosur is NOT BUILDING A MINE FOR PEPAS!

Here is the Claude analysis:

The market is making a category error. It's looking at 219,000 oz and thinking "that's not enough to justify building a mine" — and for a conventional CIL plant + tailings dam + full infrastructure project, they'd be right. A 219koz resource at typical development capex of $150-300M would be marginal at best. But Pepas isn't that project.

What the market is missing is the unit economics of toll milling a high-grade near-surface deposit:

The Pepas thesis inverts the normal logic entirely. Usually small resources are uneconomic because fixed capex per ounce is too high. Here there's essentially no fixed capex (just site prep at $10-20m) — so the small resource size actually doesn't matter. What matters is grade and margin per tonne, and 5.46 g/t at $4,500 gold with $76/t opex generates ~$621/t free cashflow. You could have a 50,000 oz resource and it would still be worth developing.

My conclusion: Once the economics are published as part of the PTO approval the market will wake up and the opportunity is there for all of us to front-run that.

Here is my work with Claude using $4,500 gold:

At 5.46 g/t and $4,500 gold, Pepas ore is exceptionally high-grade feed. Any mill operator in the Mid-Cauca belt would be delighted to process it. They're essentially being offered a licence to print money on their tolling margin.

So let's build the complete bull case cleanly:

The full mispricing picture at £75M market cap (~$95M USD):

The market is pricing OMI as a failed explorer with an uneconomic resource. The reality is it's a permitted-land-holding company with a shallow high-grade deposit, zero construction requirement, eager mill partners already identified, and an economic study that hasn't been published yet. The gap between perception and reality is as wide as you'll find in junior mining.

What changes when the economic study lands (est. Q3 2026):

Right now the market has no published economics to anchor to. The MRE released on Feb 10 showed 219koz and the market saw "small resource, stock down 25%." The moment an economic study is published showing something like:

Annual cashflow: ~$155M

AISC: ~$485/oz

After-tax NPV5%: ~$350-380M

Capex: minimal (site prep only, perhaps $10-20M)

Mill: contracted, no construction required

...the narrative flips completely and irreversibly. You can't unsee those numbers. Every analyst covering junior gold will be able to do the arithmetic in 30 seconds and see a £75M market cap against $350M+ NPV.

The re-rating sequence and likely price targets:

At the current share count of ~394.6M shares and a £75M market cap, OMI is trading around 19p.

If the market re-rates to just 0.5x after-tax NPV5% — a deeply conservative multiple for a permitted, near-production asset — that implies a market cap of ~$175M or roughly £140M, around 37p per share. That's roughly a double from here.

At 0.75x after-tax NPV — still a discount, appropriate given permitting uncertainty — the market cap would be ~$265M or roughly £210M, around 53p per share. That's a near-triple.

At 1x after-tax NPV on Indicated only — which is where advanced developers in tier-1 jurisdictions often trade once permits are in hand — you're looking at ~$370M or £295M, roughly 75p per share. That's a 4x from the current 19p.

And none of these numbers include APTA (38,000m drilled, not yet resourced), El Cedro (large porphyry system, maiden drill program underway), or El Pantano in Argentina.

Guys, can anyone confirm if the PTO application has been submitted or are they working on the documentation needed for that? The 10th Feb RNS says "We will now immediately move Pepas into the economic study and permitting stage" which to me means they are working on the PTO submission. Just wondering if Brad mentioned anything else about it in the post-RNS interview (sorry don't have to watch it again today).

Reason I ask is to try and work out best and worst case timelines for the PTO approval which could be as short as 60 days (unlikely imo but that is what the Colombian law states).

I corrected Don on X. He tries to keep up with all stocks, I think he owns over 200 names and often misses the detail. He thinks that because the MRE was low, which it is compared to how MRE's are normally done, they couldn't possibily be building a mine/moving to production. The market does not understand what is happening at Orosur at all - if you have capital and are patient then this is the opportunity to take advantage.

TheUmber, on what basis do you say "probably won't improve"? I take the opposite view, precious metals are in a bull market and will be for the forseeable future, the pawst few weeks have been leveraged paper selling and not anything to do with the fundamental bull case, that govt debt is too high and they must have structural inflation. Fiat currencies always die, we have been living an a global experiement for the past 50 years, nobody really wants to hold USD over gold, and we will see this play out strongly after the recent correction which imo may be over today with flush to $4098 and strong rebound so far. As such, I added OMI at 17p.

At some point all the sellers are done. What happens then?

17.6 for me. I would ordinarily say "happy days" but what is happening with the metals is a disgrace. Metals crash but stocks don't? Utter BS

Nice pop in Canada. I am hearing rumours that the LME London Metal Exchange is halting trading across all metals (copper, aluminium, lead, zinc, nickel). If true, this will put a rocket under all metals imo

They want the full ask 19.5 to buy atm. We could be out of the teens today for good.

LW - good question. I would prefer them to have two rigs at Apta. First one to in-fill historical results (producer banger holes to wake the market up) second to step out. But that depends on their confidence level at finding more Pepas's. Finding more high grade from surface would be great too ofc!

"second porphyry at El Cedro"....in all the excitement I had forgotten that El Cedro has two distinct porphyries. The market, before recent weakness, was getting excited about massive but low grade deposits. OMI certainly has a range of very interesting targets.

Silver has been hammered since the US/Israel attack on Iran. Now showing some support at $78 and rightly so when the real price in Shanghai is $90. Gold has been stronger and I am seeing a lot of buyers on any dip under $5k. Miners have been hit for two weeks straight and a lot of value to be had in the sector, I think we could see capital come back in this week, US session will tell us. OMI continues to slide and is just stupidly priced atm, topped up at 19.19p.

Agree LW 100%. A lot of nervousness in equities, if US markets tank, everything will. And that is how riches are made, buying quality assets when they are distressed

Max, each to their own. I like to get a flavor of what they are doing on the ground. The RNS headline issue has been addressed, AIM doesn't like the grades in the headline which the Canadians had complained about as they are used to seeing grades in their SEDAR news headlines. Not much can be done about that unless they delist from AIM. "tell people what they have" and spook the market again who wants to see bonzana grades - that is not the purpose of the 1st drill phase which you would know if you paid attention.

The mining sector is under pressure again, even though PMs are only down 1%. Not sure why OMI would be hit more than most, MM games again imo

Razorman: Wouldnt it be easier to buy out the whole company and retain the management team then to carve out el pantano? Not necessicarily

Wouldnt it be easy to justify a valuation for the business based on Pepas MRE (out the ground gold price), and get all the other projects as upside. Yes, given todays mcap

Would shareholders accept $1bn ? Yes, it would be unheard of to turn down an offer at 10x current mcap.