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Limit orders at 7.25

@TheOracle - I have the same doubts with regards Sotolo’s claim Mara Rosa “won’t be solved by next year”. I need to listen and if possible read through that transcript to be sure though so will withhold judgment.

On the hedges I defer to your explanation, do we have a breakdown of remaining hedges and prices for 2025? The last reference I can find is the number mentioned at the beginning of the year but we would have sold a portion of hedged ounces during the first half. The claim Sotolo made about margins down 30% is a bit of a vague statement. Is he talking about Mara Rosa portion only given the rest of group production is within guidance? Mara Rosa’s FY production of 65-70koz is only 20% of group production anyway.

People talking this down, clutching at straws springs to mind!

@Sotolo - yes Mara Rosa came in below H1 expectations at 28koz. The whole point of ongoing plant shutdown is to get it back up to capacity (roughly 24-26koz per quarter).

There is NO suggestion they can’t achieve this again. It’s a question of timing. My belief is they will be back to around 80% or higher within a couple of weeks of the plant coming back online (week beginning August 11th according to last update). The company should be back producing 24-26koz within 6-8 weeks of the plant reopening. It’s not a brand new plant commissioning which one might expect to take 2-3 months.

If you can provide the time stamp from the call where they say Mara Rosa won’t be back up and running at capacity until next year please direct me to it as that would be a new development.

As mentioned previously based on what we know today 38-42koz in H2 is my prediction and I’m assuming Mara Rosa is back to around 25koz quarterly run rate by beginning of October (Q4).

Whether it’s your FY Mara Rosa estimate of 60koz or my 65-70koz total the point is the market will have mostly factored this revised estimate in. We saw that happen when the share price fall below 250 recently and it’s since gained.

Remember the market will always be right.

Mara Rosa plant back up and running in the next two weeks, company confirming revised guidance and gold back to $3,400/oz around 38% up on the year.

Let’s see if anything changes in the next two weeks.

Donmac - haha “you’re in for it!” 🤣

This week has been the first major set back in terms of basket movements which is a reflection of Trump economics more than anything and may prove an only to be a temporary blip in the trend. Platinum is having its strongest year for more than a decade, it’s been a huge boost for Tharisa, a lifeline others might argue. I see on the Sylvannia Platinum chat board many keen eyes highlighting rhodium rising to new year highs. It’s trading just off that now. Still very much positive, Tharisa must be enjoying a healthy quarter in terms of increased cash gen and forecast revenues in the next quarter

Funny the share price closed up today 😄

@Burt - if the conversation was centred only around Mara Rosa ounces aka “production from Brazil” why would you insist the share price is due to fall another 25% to your so called fair value?

Again what is “wildly optimistic” about my 65-70koz Mara Rosa revised production estimate? You think it will be 50-60koz without providing any reasoning as I have done..

As I’ve demonstrated, reduced production at Mara Rosa will likely mean group guidance falls by no more than 10%. The market is already aware that this is happening so I will suggest it is already baked in to the share price for the most part. If the company say there are delays beyond the week

beginning August 11 that will be negative for the forecast I’m going from.

2025 guidance: 350-378k ounces of which Mara Rosa was forecast to produce 94-104koz ounces.

Knock off 30-35koz and there is the 9-10% reduction to guidance. Hardly a doomsday scenario when the price of gold is trading 35% higher since guidance was issued! The company are now making greater margins and we are two weeks from Mara Rosa plant being operational again.

What I don’t understand is your low ball 50k estimate assumes that Mara Rosa will produce less than 22koz in the second half!?? Now that is wildly misleading, hence I’m asking for clarification. Is that just a major oversight in your thought process or have you actually thought it through logically, looking at likely factors? I would suggest the former.

It is to be expected that Mara Rosa will be operating back at near normal capacity by September 30th (end of quarter). If it’s running efficiently the plant will produce 24-26koz in Q4 therefore as it has done last year and as it was expected to do based on initial guidance, plant design etc

I think six weeks from mid August to end of September is adequate time to ramp up an operation. They have been carrying out maintenance since June 23 and are expecting to complete in the next two weeks.

To suggest therefore that Mara Rosa could produce as little as 22koz in the whole of the second half of this year would be to imply they will take many months to get back to the expected quarterly run rate (25koz/ quarter)..

I wanted to at least give him the opportunity to explain what exactly he didn’t agree with me on..

These people are so transparent, “banana skin company” and yet he’s here looking to trade or invest if the price is right!

“Metal prices tanking” but not gold? Gold is nice and steady today, I suppose he would disagree on that too 🤣

Shameless behaviour

Is that all you have to say?

The plant is expected to be up and running again in the week beginning August 11th. In that time they have continued stockpiling and the last update mentioned they are considering plant improvements so there’s no reason to assume Q4 won’t be a 24-26koz quarter.

If the plant is back running to around 80% by end of August and full capacity by end of September i think 14-16koz this quarter is feasible.

That puts us in the 65-70koz bracket for this year.

Guidance was 350-378koz at the start of the year right? They might reduce group guidance by 30koz then, less than 10%

Meanwhile what have commodities increased by since the start of the year? A much greater proportion and in H2 this will have a much greater impact on margins and therefore profitability.

You mentioned debt having remaining flat which only tells half the story when you leave out the dividend payments and the other large one off expense (name escapes me). But for those payments net debt would have fallen by $36m in the first half. Group earnings are going to be much higher in H2

Burt I will respond to the question you asked - “What’s the issue my view isn’t even that bad it’s reflecting the reality.”

The issue is you’re coming across as disingenuous. There’s nothing wrong highlighting issues and making assumptions on the facts however if you’re reeling off things that are clearly not true whilst stating you don’t hold shares and want the price to fall back to the 220p area it reeks of deramping mentality. Whether you’re aware of it or not.

If you want civil debate, stop gas lighting shareholders and focus on the reality today. Good is not $2,000/oz nor will it fall that low again. If anything it’s going much higher, the Dollar is cooked and BRICS are pursuing a gold backed alternative. The largest nations are all heavily indebted and global growth anaemic hence the recent surge.

As for the three month ramp up claims being a ‘minimum’ what is that based on? I expect you’re basing that’s more a guesstimate rather than anything fact based. This was a temporary suspension to carry out maintenance, they aren’t ramping up operations from scratch. It shouldn’t take very long to get back above 80% capacity at Mara Rosa and then however many weeks to achieve the levels expected of it.

It’s probably back running, maybe a quiet period now until results in September. I’m optimistic the dividend will entice investors back

@SeisNav - yeah no problem, noticed it wasn’t moving after posting haha oh well keep us updated if you can! Cheers 🍻

Great job compiling the average basket price data! 👍

Does this link auto update daily? Reason I ask is many of us will find it useful to refer to and may want to bookmark it for future reference

All the gloomy peeps whinging earlier are likely sat on the side whilst Hochschild trades 9% higher.

Ignore the noise. Trust your gut. Fundamentals will out.

Good decision to walk away at this point, was getting too expensive. There are plenty of distressed exploration companies out there.

I think the drop has been overdone, the likelihood of the deal proceeding baked in. If as the poster below mentioned we walk away at this point this represents a very good entry level considering how high copper has risen this year already and the dividend yield in the mid teens! Buying to flip on the deal not proceeding sounds counter intuitive but could be a smart short term call.

Solid set of results with an improved FY forecast. Good momentum recently with regards their investment pf too as highlighted below

Record surge in platinum price last month.

According to Trading Economics Research the rise experienced in June was the biggest monthly gain for platinum in nearly 40 years!!

Market Watch is predicting prices above $1,527 in the near term, crazy to consider it was below $1,000

last year.

Platinum is trading at $1,465 and at premium to palladium ($1,275).

It’s all time high set in 2008 is $2,270 although analysts have yet to suggest it can revisit this level anytime soon

Congratulations holding onto the winning tickets! I’ve only held onto a fraction of my original shareholding which is up by a ridiculous multiple, as it’s basically a free carry. This is one of those I wish I’d held all and kept adding