RE: A summary of the position16 Dec 2025 11:40
Hi Matt
To answer a couple of your questions
"Do you seriously think Nick will make an 'Irrevocable Commitment' to sell his shares at 28p if they make a Firm bid...?"
Erm, yes. Are you suggesting he has provided a letter of intent with no designs of acting on that intent? Why submit it in the first place? Leave it to BHP, NEM and Sangha.
" If JCC do nothing by 26 December they must go away for 6 months...is that really going to happen...?"
I consider that to be unlikely. I think their bid will become binding on 23/24 December, basically with as little market time as possible before Christmas.
"If they make a bid at less than 28p the LOIs will be withdrawn and there will be no irrevocable commitments...we already know that because a bid of 26p was turned down."
Why would they return to a bid of less than 28p when 26p has been rejected? That's a nonsense suggestion. They are more likely to round it up to 30p and act like the generous good guys.
"Once they make a Firm Bid the 60 day clock starts ticking, JCC have shown their hand and all the other majors that have shown an interest in SOLG (13 ib the data room) then also have at least 46 days to decide whether to counterbid unless JCC get over 50% acceptance."
Hahaha back to the burgeoning data room are we.
Everyone knows a bid of 28p has 40.7% support so a straight majority at a shareholder vote is likely. It's quite straightforward for them. They can quite easily increase their own holdings further in the open market if they need to.
Anyone in the data room knows this. If you're a Barrick or similar, you know you have to come to the table with Β£1.25bn and be willing to start afresh in Ecuador. It's unlikely anyone is going to take that bait, but keep hoping. I hope that your hopes play out.