RE: Wider Market Feelings - Non UFO Chat11 Feb 2021 21:57
Hi Rocket - very crude... I did a very basic analysis back in early dec, looked at the projects and assumed 3 of them would progress substantially down the project pipeline, but would only provide about 15% in terms of revenue what I worked out would be in the ground.. (i.e. JV approach by default) So, estimates, based on assumptions, based on neighbours tenements, a finger in the air, etc, etc... then assumed a 5% margin for profit.. Although to be fair, I don't know if we will see revenue in that timeframe, or possibly just for the 1 project. I've also taken the view that it would be forward looking anyway, as all trading is.
I didn't know anything about mining in December, in all honesty, I bought 1000 shares because I liked the ticker :-). so, anyone who does, just have a laugh at my analysis, smile and say, Boyzer, good effort and lets come back in 24 months...
What I also did, was look at similar companies with the track records I was hoping for, and looked at the RNS trails going back, how they developed and grew... Tried to see if the wind blew in their direction and we were to match it, what would have happened... That suggested 27p in 1 year strangely enough, but im going for 2...
I know nothing about mining, and although im reading lots, I think all I've learnt is that I know I know nothing and probably will never know anything about it... If I was to do another analysis, which I may yet do, I would come up with another exit point... but ive always found that finding an exit, then doubting one'self is not a great way to invest.
Hope that helps.. Im most definitely not an expert.