Member Info for BouncyDeadCat

If you look at the timeline they've given (Page 19) on the recent presentation (Dec 2022), FID sits halfway between 2023 and 2024. I take that to be the beginning of H2 for FID.
https://www.chariotenergygroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/2022.12.12-Chariot-Webcast-png.pdf

GSA, FEED and Debt Financing are all required for this to move quickly. Not a lot will happen until they are all completed.
Timeline in presentation states GSA to be signed during Q1 (Jan-Mar) 2023. It's February 17th.
FID not due until the second half of the year.
They've already updated the market with regards to the FEED plan during their end of year webcast and they're adding another well to it (which means more gas and a slight delay).

GSA, FEED and Debt Financing are all required for this to move quickly. Not a lot will happen until they are all completed.
Timeline in presentation states GSA to be signed during Q1 (Jan-Mar) 2023. It's February 17th.
FID not due until the second half of the year.
They've already updated the market with regards to the FEED plan during their end of year webcast and they're adding another well to it (which means more gas).

Smyth,
I haven't reported any of your posts.

One would think you bought the stock because you are bullish on its future – why would you part with your hard-earned otherwise?
If your conviction or thesis on the stock has changed – sell it. No point whinging day after day as you're just wasting time and opportunity.

Gooner,
You claim to give valid opinions – don't kid yourself – you just whinge. I've never seen you post any detailed analysis or research or related news articles – you just whinge like a child.

Buying a stock and then spending all day every day whinging about it says more about you guys than it does about anyone else.

smyth111,
Don't give your power (or money) to that which you wish to be free from.
I would sell utter drivel. Just dump it and move on if that's what you really think.

ianfer,
Not all monies have been generated from share issues. There have been some farm-ins from the likes of BP, Petrobras, ENI, AziNam, from whom back costs were paid/recouped.

Read the RNS. They didn’t spend any cash.
There are some posters on this bb that have more that $1m in Char shares. It’s peanuts, yet massively accreditive to Project Nour.

Some people need to chill and look at the bigger, long-term picture.
Project Nour needs desalinated water in order to produce green hydrogen and Chariot paid a measly $1million in order to acquire the ability to produce clean water in-house rather than contracting it out to a 3rd party (which would be a way more expensive option). Any excess potable water produced, can be sold on.

Chariot Transitional Power has the solar technology and expertise needed to build the power source to produce green hydrogen, but was missing the water side of things. Partnering with Oort Energy (electrolysis) and buying ENEO for peanuts (desalination) is filling this gap.

In a statement, Chariot reported that the agreement will cover 60mln cubic feet per day of gas on a ‘take-or-pay’ basis over a ten-year term, with the gas being delivered via the Maghreb-Europe gas pipeline and supply power generation.

A framework and timetable is now in place for the conclusion of a formal gas sales agreement, the company said, and work on this documentation is underway.

In the statement, Chariot chief executive Adonis Pouroulis said: “This is a notable step forward for us in our journey towards gas production and underpins the project development plan and financing.

“I would like to thank ONEE and ONYHM for their ongoing support, and we look forward to continuing to work together to bring this important natural gas supply onstream and into the Moroccan market as quickly as possible."

Abderrahim El Hafidi general director of national Moroccan energy group ONEE (the Office National de l'Electricité et de l'Eau Potable), meanwhile, added: "The Anchois gas project will be an important source of domestic natural gas that will initially feed directly into ONEE's power plants via the Maghreb-Europe Gas Pipeline.

“We are interested to conclude this sales agreement and for Anchois to continue to progress towards production."

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1000883/chariot-strikes-gas-sales-agreement-in-morocco-1000883.html

Morocco desperately needs Anchois gas. Since Algeria cut them off, they have been relying on the Spanish to deliver them some of their US LNG imports via the GME - which is a precarious position for a nation state to be in.

However, the GSA needs to be a win-win for all parties;
For Morocco, it needs to provide a cheaper, more stable supply than relying on imported gas, and for Chariot, it needs to be econonmically viable for the company to invest in the infrastucture to build and maintain the asset. Everyone is aware that the project simply won't get built without i) a profit motive ii) the required technical/sector expertise.

As building the project is in all parties interests, the incentive is for all parties to agree upon a GSA that works for all.

The GSA with ONEE will likely be the trigger required to green-light the debt finance to build the infrastructure (60mln cubic feet per day). Chariot can then agree other GSAs with wholesalers for export to Europe via the GME (45-95mln cubic feet per day).

It's up 12% on last week. Unless you're a day trader, who cares what the price is today.
It'll move up on major milestones being achieved.
Lots of milestones due in 2023.

He's still here speedbilly and he talks to himself through multiple mouths, including yours.

Explorist,
The original valuation of $900 million NPV10 was based off of 2C contingent resource of 307Bcf that increased to 365Bcf 1C contingent resource post recalibration of seismic & Anchois-1 drill data, signed off by CPR.

However, the successful Anchois-2 appraisal well in early January has proven up a further 637Bcf of 2C contingent resource and 754 Bcf 2U of prospective resource. Based on this, we are yet to receive a re-evaluated NPV10 valuation.

Yes, I agree, the valuation will only be based on the latest NPV10 estimate until the project is actually underway and cashflow is actually flowing and only then will the project be priced appropriately.

*If you want us to believe you have the credentials you say you have - then tell us who you are and let us research you. It's easy for anyone to claim they have superior credentials as an internet anon. It's only those who actually have them that are prepared to prove it.

Explorist,
Forgive me, but you sound like a lying ferret the way you write. And you’re completely wrong when you say they’re unable to know anything else other than what they can glean from a gas sample, they have seismic read throughs, core samples as well as 150m of gas bearing reservoirs.

Share your name please and I’ll check you out. If not, I’ll assume you’re the lying ferret who feels the need to big himself up to anons on the internet.

Of course, there are a lot of assumptions when trying to predict and price the future. So I think the only thing we can say about where the share price will be if/when Anchois gets to production is.... a lot, lot higher than where it is now.

Uncertainty is what creates the opportunity and the cheap price today.

You can't have it all :) At least, not yet :)

*large cash pile and some carried drills.

It doesn't matter which way you slice it, if Chariot get Anchois into production by the end of 2024/early 2025, then the SP is filthy cheap at today's price.

Let's say you take the average between Jimmy's (opitimistic) and Wizzard's (pessimistic) assumptions. You get to about $500 million per year in earnings (which is about where my estimate sits).

By the time Chariot gets to production, let's assume they've farmed out 25% of the project for a large cash pile.

Chariot left with 50% of the project = $250 million per annum in earnings from Anchois.

The market would then apply a p/e to those earnings (a p/e of 10 for O&G is relatively conservative).

Let's also assume the share count has also increased (diluted) to 1 billion. $250 million would thus give an EPS of 25p, apply a p/e of 10 = £2.50 share price. This is just for Anchois. Nothing added on for their green energy electricity business or Hydrogen nour project.

Let's say things go badly they are only able to extract 60mmcf of gas per day @ £8 per mcf from Anchois for the foreseeable future, the SP would still likely warrant a £1-1.20 SP valuation.

TheDealBreaker,
I think the greatest risk for Chariot are the capital markets.

Surfit,
AP grew Petra from a small player into one of the largest diamond miners in the world. He also oversaw it's transition from a small AIM stock onto the main market. However covid and lockdowns exposed they had overstretched themselves. That was his undoing. So what you have with AP is an entrepreneur who is a proven deal-maker with a 20 year track-record of success which ultimately ended in failure.

Will he be able to transfer the skills he showed in building up the mined resources he acquired whilst CEO at Petra in to building up the gas asset he acquired whilst CEO of Chariot? I find the best way to answer this question and others like them, is to assign probabilities to them;

Have Chariot increased & proven up the Anchois resource since they were issued the licence?
Have they had those increased resources audited by CPR?
Will there be demand for what the company intends to produce?
Based on project location and the vicinity of legacy infrastructure, is extraction a viable proposition?
Are the quantities of gas reserves and follow-on potential attractive enough for a farm-in partner(s) to be interested?
How quickly is the company moving?
Are they executing on what they say they will execute on?
Is the nation state who issues them their licence(s) friendly and onboard with what AP & Co are trying to achieve?
Is debt financing realistic?
If debt financing is realistic, does the company have an MOU from a global bank to realise it?
Once debt financing is taken into account, will the project be free cashflow generative for the company?
How cashflow generative?
Etc.

The interesting thing here is, if AP proves he can get Anchois into production whilst still retaining a decent chunk of ownership for the company (and thus himself as its largest shareholder) – would this lead the market to re-evaluate his ability to do the same thing with Project Nour and the renewable electricity business? which are both currently valued at zero.

Apologies for any & all past & future typos, autocorrect is switched off.

I think Gerbil (ShareHolderChar) is right, Naval Gazer 21 is the ferret (again).

Fazer21,
Feel free to. I copy & pasted that snippet because you asked the question where you said it.