Member Info for Bottmzup

Thanks Hawkey and hydrogen for the pointers and info.

Can`t help but wonder why this is being held back and don`t think its because of the fundamentals of the company, or the location of operations, or the oil price (obviously).

All I can think of in charting and share price terms is something I call the psychology of the masses.
Looking at the long term chart there was an extended period of time between the start of 2016 until around the time of the video hydrogen posted, so end of March this year, where the share price stayed within a range of between about 60p and 165p. So people holding on for over two years have finally seen an increase in their investment and as such you will always get a % of profit takers or sellers for cashflow reasons etc.

The handle part of the cup and handle pattern looks to be where this consolidation area flushes out the old holders who want out with a profit and the new money comes in because of the positive vibes the company are giving out.
This has to run its course until holders and new buyers finally flush out the sellers and my guess would be that when it`s over there will be a strong rise to the next level.

I can`t think of any other reason with all the company positives well known and the oil price still rising.

I also think that the recent short term drop may not be over as uncertainty still plays a part in whether holders hang on for the update or decide to cut and run. Fear conquers greed normally.

If price hits 230p in the next couple of days I may well be tempted to get in before the update purely because it would enable me to use a low % stop loss of c5% - 6% because of the recent pivot low of 220p, and that fits in with my risk/reward rules.

I`ll be watching closely come Monday morning.

Que` ?

Hmmm, just checked trades data on here and all the `sells` this afternoon at .85p will be buys...along with mine.

The 932k at 13:35 looks like a sell at .76p (??) but all following are buys on Money AM so I`m going with that.

...another top up at .85p after todays news.....and its listed as a buy!!!

Looking good here.

Lemming99, yes as just mentioned to bunk the gap has now been filled when price went through it to 234p.

Unfortunately a gap being filled doesn`t necessarily mean price will bounce at that point, it just means that that quirk is now out of the way for traders to look for `completion`.

It can work as a bounce point but I think the market is waiting for the update before reacting in this example, so the bigger picture factor is more in play.

Well I was just about to post a question to all the fundies or long termers here who know the company`s story...

Q: What would be the most important aspect of results that investors are waiting to see, or is it just an increase in production overall? Are there wells waiting to be drilled or go into production for example?

I have tried to read previous results RNS`s but find them very complicated because of the amount of operations going on.
Any pointers would be much appreciated.
Thanks

ps bunks, the 236p gap has already been filled today, and I was very tempted when price hit the rising trend line as shown in my screenshot at 234p ish....but it is Friday, and the trend is still down so I had a word with my buy finger and told it to behave itself! :-)

MM`s rounding up or down I think, otherwise wouldn`t make sense.

Hi bunks, no I wouldn`t be looking to buy just because this particular gap gets filled (if it does), purely because of what you said...its too close to the results now and I want to see how the market reacts. I`ve made that mistake in the past and then on the day of results the price gaps down!! These days I`m more patient and hopefully more controlled.

I like the potential here so would be prepared to miss a few pence here or there until there`s a confirmation signal of breaking the cup and handle pattern to the upside, because if it does there`s plenty of profit to come...ie the 550p target.

We shall see. Good luck with your decisions.

Thanks JohnLewis, I suppose you have to be fascinated by it, which I am. At least you`ve got some of the basics.
Its not so hard to learn, its mostly the visuals of the chart and lining up indicators and patterns.

My fundie analysis tends to be basic, debt, profit, new contracts, geographical/political implications, sectors etc

Sod all that number crunching with PE ratios et al.

Each to their own, good luck with your investments.

Yes thats fine JohnLewis, but I never understand why long termers and fundies don`t at least include some knowledge of the technical stuff if only to time their buys, or sells.
It can maximise profits and/or minimise losses.

Last year `17, I was screaming at people over on the Solgold discussion that a major trend line had broken at 45pish and that it was time to sell. I got dogs abuse.
I was still getting dogs abuse this year when the price was down to 20p!!

Its now bounced back up to the mid 30`s, just imagine the difference in their profits if they`d listened and sold....all they had to do was look at the chart that I was posting to them, it was glaringly obvious to any half informed techies, but no, they didn`t want to hear it because they treated it like I was saying their baby was ugly!!
They could have waited for the trend line to break back to the upside and buy back in.

Moral of story.....techies know how to time buys and sells, fundies buy once they`ve convinced themselves that the numbers, or the story are ideal, and buy whatever the price, then hold for 5 years or whatever. If you only use one or the other I use the analogy of a snooker player only being able to pot balls OR position the white!!

The trick is to be able to use a % of both!

Hi Hawkey, I use an online trading program that you download and pay monthly for (£28), and within the software is a data mining filter. Basically you build your own filters, like, stocks in the ftse250 that have no less daily volume value of say £1m, that have crossed the 50day MA, or daily stochastics lines have crossed to the upside while below the 20 level......for example. You then just hit the button of each filter every day or whenever you like, and it will show all stocks that fit the criteria. Quite often it shows 20, 30 or maybe 40 results on any one day for every filter you build.

The 136p gap is just a quirk of trading that everybody who follows charting rules understands, and so tends to be a self fulfilling prophecy, along with a lot of other `understood rules`, like you wouldn`t buy anything that is approaching a resistance level, or pivot point as some people call them. Common trading sense would dictate that you wait for the level to be broken out above, or wait for the retrace when it bounces back down off that level before considering a buy.

There are NO guarantees that certain observations will play out, but if you follow the `rules of engagement` you can generally see technical analysis playing out on virtually every stock on the market, smaller news driven stocks with low market caps not so much but rising trend lines and support/resistance areas still come in to play regularly.

You can just put `technical analysis` in to YouTube these days if you want to learn more and you`ll see many many hundreds of tutorial videos for day trading or longer term swing trading covering all aspects.

Hope this helps.

It probably wouldn`t make that much difference to a long term holder, but it makes all the difference to a short term trader.

I`ve been watching the sp and could have bought around the 255p level playing for the breakout, if I`d have bought then and they go to 300p, I`ve made 17%.
But if I wait for my lower entry at 236p and they go to 300p its 27%!

Horses for courses.

sorry, getting my trades mixed up, should have said 236p gap, not 136p!!! Eeeek!

Hi all, haven`t posted here before but my trading program mining filter threw up a `take a look` signal due to price going over the 50day exp moving average recently.
My first look is always the long term chart, 5 years, for a yes/no first impression....it was a yes for one reason, an obvious cup and handle pattern. See here..its not a classic under the rules, but the shape is undeniable.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/QAwTpQBW/

So then its a closer look for where the breakout higher might be, so I`ve been following for about a week, and reading the posts here for extra fundamental clues to endorse my interest and look for a juicy trade... (target entry price).

Not once on here have I seen any kind of reference to technical analysis, its all fundamentals with the POO being so high and income being great, and the PE ratio etc etc all leading to everyone scratching their heads as to why the sp is so low.
Two things strike me as obvious, (1) there has just been an election in Iraq so not yet clear as to how it will pan out...and (2) the company are about to update the market next Wed...so the `obvious` bit is that old stock market word that always spooks potential investors/traders as well as current holders.....UNCERTAINTY!!

So I`ve held off jumping in yet for those reasons, along with another technical reason after tracking the daily sp over the last week. There is a gap to be filled at 136p, and for those who don`t follow, or believe the voodoo...chicken bones...crystal ball...hocus pokus witchcraft of technical analysis, the rule on gaps is that they get filled, maybe not immediately, or next week, next year, or 5 years down the line.....but they will get filled!

Only thing with GENL in this circumstance, my guess is that it will get filled sooner rather than later ie before the trading update!
I know some won`t want to hear this, and I hope one in particular doesn`t have a `moment` and smash his fist through his computer screen at this point, but here is the screenshot of the said gap....as highlighted with a sexy turquoise ellipse, and a horizontal dotted gold line. Also note the green rising trend line which looks to fit in nicely with the other converging signals and sp direction.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/9CmfNMx3/

Any breakout above the upper `handle` line on the long term chart and a significant rise could be on the cards, the pattern rules suggests a target price of around 550p.

But if next weeks update disappoints then all of this could go out of the window and the next support looks to be c165p.

That`s technical analysis for you, some say its nonsense, but judging by what I`ve been reading here on the fundamental side of things and the correlation to the share price, I could say that it also is nonsense....because currently, the extended high oil price says that this doesn`t make sense.

I see that the update includes a key word that I included in my Friday pm post...trajectory!

They must read this discussion I reckon they thought...`hey thats a good word`! Ha ha ha!

Here proactive do their roundup of todays update.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/206157/obtala-encouraged-by-trajectory-of-top-line-206157.html

ps. I did a small top up this morning to round up my holding, and as usual on AIM it was listed as a sell. So not worth checking trades data as its almost always `fake news`!

Not having too many issues on Barclays, bought and sold several times in the last week.

The 10 day average volume is over 8m so plenty to go round.

Seems funny how just a couple of weeks ago, when Miles Pelham was buying massive amounts of shares, Argento and OBT ordinary in the open market, people on here were speculating that a takeover was `obvious`!

Now, just because he confirmed that there is no management takeover agenda, as far as he`s concerned, the price has dropped by 25%!!!

He still has the shares, revenue is still rising rapidly, all previous funds raised have been spent well on machinery and processing plant upgrades for increased production, so all the most important engineering and infrastructure factors re continued exponential increase in revenues are now in place, and new funds are almost guaranteed to be just around the corner to progress this operation in one of the fastest growing continents in the world.....and yet people are surmising that there is a fly in the ointment for private shareholders!!

I would say a serious bounce from this low sp level is much more on the cards than running the share price into oblivion in the near future because of some conspiracy theory about the Chairman`s long term plans!

Anybody buying at this level, and at this juncture in OBT`s history will be very well rewarded in my view.

When the new funding comes the share price will recover to a whole new trajectory with doubters and sellers wishing they`d just held on that bit longer for the pivot point to play out.

Miles Pelham has ploughed multiple millions of pounds of his personal wealth into this project only a couple of weeks ago, on a company with a relatively puny market cap!

Does he know something we don`t??
You can bet your house he does!

Strong buy.

...Looks to be around the 88p level, might have to have a dabble next week.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/uaWr1bPT/

Yes, he said he didn`t want to go out with a wimper (sell too cheap) and wanted to turn OBT into the Glencore of forestry.

But then Company Directors and Chairman can say whatever shareholders want to hear I suppose.

Lets see what happens if/when they secure new funding, which he also said they were working hard to get asap.