RE: Stifl broker note lowers 2021 revenue significantly3 May 2021 17:09
Some have suggested that a lower forecast broker note helps to secure a CBILS loan. Hmm, interesting.
It would be a good shout, after all the ad agencies have held back in their campaigns because people just aren`t going out to shop and spend their money, ok you can shop online but it doesn`t scratch the surface of high street spend in a lot of brands, so ad agencies have held back their campaigns during lockdowns.
Stifel by their own admission have stated that forecasting on Bids is, by its nature....high risk.
VALUATION. Bidstack is pioneering a new ad format which targets the video games sector- a market that reaches ~2.7bn people around the world. Forecast risk is high, but the potential is significant.
We expect revenues to build on FY20 levels, but as `go live` dates and games popularity are hard to determine, we consider the number and quality of games as a more appropriate metric to track long term progress. In addition, we see certification of the format as an important hurdle as it will enable fully automated sales, key to scaling longer term. We retain our target price of 8.5p. This is set at a discount to our underlying DCF to factor in near term funding requirements.
A £4m revenue estimate is probably more realistic for 2021, and most investors/commentators/watchers would have wondered about a £9m estimate, which after all was issued by Stifel, not Bidstack!
So £4m then, lets take that as the `new` Stifel estimate, as high risk as the forecasting of that may be.
£80,000 a week! Not bad as a growing forecast compared to the full year turnover of £140,000 for the year ending 2019.
The current £20m market cap prices in all sorts of negatives, so buying at this level is not foolish considering the sub sector of the multi billion dollar market Bidstack are operating in, and the fact that they are leading the field in the IGA competitors market.
No dramas here, and no dramas getting funded for the next stage of development.
#This Is Just The Start