RE: It’s been a long 5 years1 Oct 2025 08:32
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Pipeline Valuation Ranges
(AVA6000 + AVA6103 core, plus optional others)
• 2 programs (AVA6000 + AVA6103 only)
• Conservative (EV $14.4B) → $36.0 / £28.1 per share
• Base (EV $21.6B) → $54.0 / £42.2 per share
• Bull (EV $28.8B) → $72.0 / £56.3 per share
• 4 programs (adds 2 extra pipeline drugs)
• Conservative (EV $15.6B) → $39.0 / £30.4 per share
• Base (EV $23.4B) → $58.5 / £45.6 per share
• Bull (EV $31.2B) → $78.0 / £60.9 per share
• 6 programs (adds 4 extra pipeline drugs)
• Conservative (EV $16.8B) → $42.0 / £32.8 per share
• Base (EV $25.2B) → $63.0 / £49.2 per share
• Bull (EV $33.6B) → $84.0 / £65.6 per share
(Converted at USD → GBP ≈ 0.78)
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Interpretation
• With 400M shares, the numbers cluster between £28–66 per share depending on assumptions.
• Even the conservative 2-program case is ~£28/share, vs. Avacta’s current ~£1 level — that’s >25× uplift on a takeout.
• A platform premium (pharma buyers paying for the whole FAP-activated pipeline, not just AVA6000) could easily push a deal toward the £50–65/share range