Member Info for BoomerBower

Good retail sales again in the US. Ppl here will shout and squeak but the growth rate of the us economy is the best predictor of UK growth and infinitely more important than whatever arrangement we come to with the EU. US still drives the world economy.

How much is set aside? Will we provide more??

A political crisis is better than a financial one, especially for a bank like this, more easily solvable.

Rich I think the bottom is 51/52 you might miss out on the Lloyd's Bogof if you wait for 40s???

Rutts yr right. My preference is FTA, WTO, Remain then Mays brexit in last place. However the thing is get it agreed all options will give much the same result in 10 years. Ultimately the UK problems are too much bureaucracy, too little productivity and too many ppl either in non jobs or on benefits. EU membership whilst not ideal imo actually comes pretty low on the list.

No Andy it is uncertainty, why are we growing so much faster than France last 2 quarters and our unemploynent I under half of theirs if EU membership is be all and end all? It's delusional to pretend a 2.8% mean tariff will cause such a loss to GDP. No credible non gravity based model imagines a small tariff causes a recession. If you buy the construct and are gullible yes any soothsayer can predict Armageddon. But reality is WTO, remain or FTA are all perfectly valid options that will mean we end up in roughly the same place in 10 years time.

Nokesa for what it worth I'll be hitting buy at 51/52p. I believe this has to be resolved. A resolution either way will mean this mean reverts to a pound or there about. So brexit is creating wonderful opportunity here.

Andygogo the price reflects uncertainty. Markets hate uncertainty above all things. If we stayed or left the price would recover. I think that is a statement of the obvious.

Tier 1 capital alone at Lloyd's is about 37bn. Think of that as retained earnings from all Lloyd's history. The current mcap is 38.4bn. in essence we are being told by the market the banking business has zero value.

A good point of entry is anything below tnav which is 52p. At that price you are assuming the Lloyd assets, mortgages, cards and loans etc have 0 value.

Nokesa I believe remainers really have a case of Stockholm syndrome. I can't fathom any other reason why they want to stay in a mean spirited protectionist racket. May has literally bent over and pointed at her bottom in these negotiations and the EU have happily inserted.

Only if. The pain the EU can inflict is very limited. The issue we are having is chaps like pigpen here who seem to want to live as serfs to EU masters. Bizarre ppl who hate the idea of a nation state.

Mick brexit bill is law we leave unless something is agreed in March. Bercow has no power to change this.

March, not May.

Mick you are mistaken, that is what parliament has agreed in the EU exit bill unless parliament can agree this may deal or another we leave end of May.

They aren't extreme brexiteers. Brexit always meant WTO or FTA, anything else isn't brexit. What May has done is 52% ordered a beef steak she has bought them bean stew.

We were offered a comprehensive FTA in March which for reasons only known to themselves downing Street declined. The EU were bemused an anyone. This decision by May boxed the nation in to accept an eccentric deal. Very simple we go back take the FTA then call a general election to ratify this. We need a new PM Esther McVey ideally or David Davis.

Hope I'm not on your list backbencher. The main blame lies in the slow death. Cameron should have withdrawn immediately in WTO and the lack of economic shock would have put the onus on the EU to deal. Cameron walking away like the utter worm he is caused most of this. He should have led.

Backbencher sub 50 doesn't seem that likely because fundamentals like tnav kick in.

This deal is not perfect. Time to take it and move on.