Member Info for bonum

Arrival of New Chief Executive Officer http://www.investegate.co.uk/lamprell-plc-(lam)/rns/arrival-of-new-ceo/201303040700130921Z/

Lamprells been profitable in previous years, with the known extraordinary contract difficulties resulting in current losses for the year & refllected in the price drop from the higher levels circa 400p. The recovery's in place for renewed profits going forward ,beyond the financial year & clearly indicated in the management statements in recent RNS's. Regarding very short term price movements, we've had macro market issues but we're all equally in the dark as to the direction of that move, hence why my only focus is solely on a price appreciation going forward beyond the very short term. Gla

They'd pay the same price as Iris or lose the turbines to another bidder.

The initial points pretty much addressed in my previous post & from the rns but agree that clarification on the relationship with creditors/cash spend on the $3.1M would be helpful. We know IPSA have an agreement in place with the largest creditors anyway and the rns as predicted on the eventuality of Iris not proceeding, with the inclusion of news of the alternative buyer. atb

I noted the rns while away from the screen & basically one of the scenarios discussed here over the last few weeks if not the most likely (that would've been Iris concluding the deal of course). However, effectively the company has an extra $3.1M in the bank with negotiations already current to sell the turbines to a new party at the existing price. Theres also the specialist agency inviting other offers which would add extra urgency to conclude for the party currently in talks. the working capital situation has been known to the market for a while & any additional funding would be "modest" as already explicitly stated by the company. That would also be conditional on all creditors not agreeing to an extension of terms which isn't a given at this time. What is noteworthy is the way the price moves with the relatively few shares in issue & the bottom buy price which weve seen before & where we are near enough atm. There'll be a lot of scaremongering from certain parties im sure & with a view to a more beneficial entry. However, the fact is the company own the turbines, have buyers currently at the table & will sell eventually. If that means sitting on a reduced profit or paper loss for a time, fair enough. For me its a further buying opportunity which i'll take with a view to realizing an 'effectively' bigger profit on the eventual sale conclusion - that's only a matter of time away. Have a good weekend all, including my semi articulate friend ;)

Reading thru the company reports youd also note taht the main creditors have an agreement in place not to call the debt until the turbine sale is concluded. The tight cash situ has been mentioned in previous RNS's but the company also have the $3.1M already paid by Iris as well as the impending sale were looking towards. From an operational perspective we're also looking ata major increase in plant demand &capacity Q1 2013. A very compelling investment case here, especially considering the upside / downside scenario & the fact that Iris's deposit (equating to circa 2p) isnt even fully reflected in the SP yet atb

Looking good for the news

You're obviously not aware of the investment case here then

As you say, they have a specialist agency on board as well as Iris 's continued spend on logistics for transportation (beyond the $3.1M already paid) AND other prospective buyers already in the fray. The specialist agency can bring more parties to the table thereby negotiating an even better price for the turbines, beyond that agreed by Iris or offered by those already expressing an interest. It really is a WIN/WIN situation at this point imho & the upside / downside potential price movement adds further strentgth to the investment case. This really is a genuine 'multibag' stock so more then happy to wait for the eventual conclusion of the sale which will happen atb

The have the turbines, multiple prospective buyers & they WILL sell them - basically! atb

http://www.ipsagroup.co.uk/projects http://www.southafrica.info/business/economy/infrastructure/energy.htm etc There's a lot of info out there but the general concensus backs up IPSA's statements about increased capacity & demand to underpin significant future growth - especially beneficial from the zero debt situ IPSA should be in once the deals concluded (either to Iris or one of the other interested parties). Thats why were looking at a company changing catalyst due for IPSA & hence significant upside movement on the price atb

They'll probably finalize things over the weekend but you never know & we might get an rns tomorrow gla

Good luck with the gardening - the rest of us will endevour to keep the discussion stock specific hopefully atb

IPSA do often release RNS's later in the day so quite possible even today but comfortable waiting anyway - certainly wont be long now. atb

Its not so much about a price target being achieved (we may get 23p, somewhat less or even more) but demonstrating the upside potential with regards to any downside movement. The current price level is slightly above where we were before the IPSA deal was even mentioned (& the $3.1M banked of course). Thats why i dont believe therell be any significant downside movement from curent levels with a maximum negative trajectory being circa 3p anyway. Taking the NAV, 23p price target & other factors into consideration, the upside / downside potential price movements become more apparent. The turbines WILL be sold as has been mentioned before. atb

With all due respect i'm not particularly interested in your opinion of my response or getting into a prolonged debate on the validity or not of any other persons opinion. Assess the 23p price target on the calculations clearly given atb

Iris have till the end of the month which would technically translate to close of business/end of day on the 28th feb, so possibly an RNS on friday(?). However, as deanowl points out it could go longer then that depending on how the individual parties see any progress being made & of course the interest expressed by the other interested companies. IPSA will eventually sell those turbines, whether to Iris or another party so more then comfortable holding at these levels for that eventuality. atb

Heres the independent worked valuation for the above price target "IPSA is valued below its assets at the moment due to its tight cash. However, should the sale of the remaining turbines is finalised this month (as expected), it will be the trigger for rerating, which will make it debt free company, and will have surplus of cash after the working capital requirement. Also, since the plant in south africa is already generating revenue, it is expected that it will be in profit/cash positive later in the year (ie no more fundraising/placing) calculation: the remaining turbine sale total proceeds = GBP 19.4m proceeds Will be used to pay off all debts totalling = GBP 15.8 (page 4 of the report) so, the company will have assets (and debt free) worth = net cash after sale of turbine = 19.4-15.8 = GBP 3.6m = other assets (property/plants) FMV worth = GBP 9.7m so, total assets 3.6+9.7 = GBP 13.3m and this excludes any attributable valuation to its revenue being generated by its operation in South africa, which in itself could be worth 10p more (i havent done any proper calculation on revenue in south africa). so, total value of IPSA would be 13.3m+10m = GBP 23.3m (will be higher should they ramp up revenue in the plant) while current market cap only around GBP 3.4M (at 3.25p sp) This will rerate massively once the sale of turbine is finalised and the company is debt free. based on Interim result sep 2012 " http://www.ipsagroup.co.uk/images/Inter ... s_2012.pdf

if you follow the discussion you'll note the mention of certain news to act as a catalyst for the anticipated move into double figures thats been discussed here. Not long to wait now atb

http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/