RE: Straight bet for traders next week7 Jul 2018 15:50
Afternoon :)
I've got a few messages to unload now as it happens - I'm short on time but I'll give it a shot:
1/ In the same manner as MMc recently invited PIs to think about the notion that we may have Tier 1/District Scale Copper here on less than 1% of our total acreage, I'd like to invite PIs to think about the notion that, on us seeing the right news going forward, our (nailed-on/beaten now surely?) old PFS Expansion Case of $400m NPV and $2.2b revenue at $3 Copper could, conceivably, see that c$2b revenue switched to the NPV with revenue possibly north of $10b. That's a ramp and a half shout right there but "only" 3-4x the current T3 discovery could be enough to make that a reality and we're drilling 8 major targets throughout the Summer here and we still don't know just wtf may be under the current T3 pit ...
2/ In the above circumstance, a plain (and, yes, very dumb) reading of a *strategic* T/O by a major (to possibly include Cupric Canyon's 500mt resource adjacent to ours) could, again, conceivably, net MTR 10% of that new NPV for a cool c£150m. That's +teens on the current SP ...
3/ If MOD prove that their AEM tech is capable of reliably finding Copper along this mammoth acreage - and getting *any* decent hits on these new targets would make that so - then in a flash we flip from "yeah the ground is huge but that doesn't mean you can find it, even if it is there" to "ok, you guys have highly prospective land that's bigger than some small countries and you're able to find Copper reliably across that land". We should all recognise the size of the risk/reward shift there in terms of possible upside but also the likelihood that new money will inevitably be thrown at MOD for yet-further exploration once that's proven - quite possibly at over an Aussie Dollar imo.
4/ I'm aware of money of a particular "provenance" being involved here (since May). Meaning? Meaning the kind of money that is more than capable of moving this to heights that may not - yet - be supported by the facts on the ground. I.E. a humongous "overbuy" that may even have me (as an uber Bull here) raising my eyebrows at the height of a given SP spike. Our paths don't cross regularly for pretty obvious reasons but the fact they're here is possibly a big blue flag in terms of vertical upside on the right news so bear that in mind imo ... I won't speak to this again because there's no need but if they didn't already know that I know then they do now :) The salient point there for PIs is that while we can point to the likelihood of no significant/non-existent downside from here based on the base-case PFS valuation prior to the resource upgrade or any new discoveries (and support the SP with our constant buying), that other kind of money is the kind that makes 10x baggers happen, even if it is an overshoot that gets way ahead of itself ...
That's me for today - catch you all tom :)
Sign In
Follow the stocks
