Member Info for bonker99

Cos we're not crooks and some (much) money in this game are Black Hat plays only mate.

I can't see the posts cos of my filters but I can imagine the content :)

There's some unhappy peeps about who didn't see this coming a couple of months back and aren't fully-loaded I'm afraid ;)

Shame really.

The two numbers in your post made me laugh mate - I won't say why but trust me it's for a good reason :)

Far-extrapolating TA peeps may get it though ;)

Finally ffs ................

@ Dakad - I don't know the answer to those two questions although that ID does ring a bell, possibly from the MARL/SOLG moves that he mentions back in the day.

What I do know is that 162 and I are *very* confident re our posts this weekend and I suggest that y'all go back and read through them again. As much as we can know, as non-insiders, we "know" we're going to n bag this because the numbers in the PFS Expansion Case (proper nailed yesterday!) and our blog dictate it.

What we don't know of course is how many bags and the timescales but others out there in the murky City mafia world may well know the answers to both those questions as is *always* the case, usually a few weeks/months before they simply throw the switch and it proper kicks off, often to the surprise of PIs who have the same question everytime it happens - "why now?" - as it often happens *after* a "tumbleweeds market response" to quality news :)

On this site, regular PIs can't tell a ramp from a genuine, possibly life-changing, opportunity and I do get how difficult that is for people but we've done our best to lay out what this is about and the kind of numbers that could be seen vs the limited/non-existent downside and those are very rare opportunities indeed on the stock market.

I'm maybe too moderated in my tone perhaps on here and should probably amp up the language but that's not my public style though I will let slip that my tone in other forums of discussion of MTR are in stark contrast to on here :)

At the end of the day mate, you've gotta ask yourself why these guys (162 and I) are devoting so much time and effort to this ...

PS: That guy is right about the "trading" of the past two months - I've mentioned it myself on a number of occasions these past weeks - under normal trading conditions this should be back at mid 2s, it's not and it ain't looking like it's going there either and there will definitely be a reason for that - we just don't know what it is - yet.

HTH

Well answer him then someone :)

When MMs are putting buys through at the bid price to make em look like sells on a "weak" bid then you know they're pretty desperate to keep this going sideways.

That really is super news today and will stand us in very good stead here once the games are over.

When will the games be over? When the buy orders are complete I would imagine and I obviously can't have any idea at all when that will be.

In the meantime, y'all are obviously all welcome to sell/slice out of here to go and buy the GGP/UKOGs of this world with that money. Just don't complain if you end up halving that money in five minutes vs the pretty slim likelihood of seeing a substantial retrace here, give or take the usual bouncy 10-15% or so :)

FWIW, and for the record, I've done nothing today other than cancel some of the lower slice limit orders I had in prior to today's news and I'll be sticking around for as long as it takes to see some upside worthy of that news but it's your money and you've all got to make your own decisions while they manipulate her sideways.

PS: AIM is not a market, there's no price discovery here ;)

That's a lorra churn today :)

Naughty MMs - they seem to be pulling out all the stops here, every trick in the book.

PS: Re TG's options extension - you've gotta wonder what it is he knows that's stopping him from taking more shares lol

I'm almost as intrigued by the reaction to that news as the news itself - obviously it doesn't make a jot of sense and I simply don't buy that the market only likes exploration news (though we're obviously going to get a bunch of that too anytime) to see SP upside, that's BS - there's something else going on imo.

Keep sitting on them hands.

You're (all) very welcome :)

I concur with both the sentiment and the numbers you've mentioned there - I've been averaging up myself as much as I could recently because of the very obvious big buying here at 2s leading up to this, unexpected, pivotal event but 3s now looks a no-brainer.

This isn't going to double-digits on that news obviously but I'd just posted this weekend that we were probably no more than c20mt away from securing the old PFS Expansion Case based on the prior resource of 36mt @ 1.1% Copper.

I was speaking then to the likelihood that we demonstrate a near-certainty of hauling ourselves to/over the magic 60mt number on new discoveries but that number has been reached even ahead of the current exploration campaign showing likely new resource and I can't emphasise enough how important/pivotal that is to the whole project.

Sometimes in this game you find yourself wondering whether you're smoking your own supply with the fantasy upside in your head but that's a real wake-up call here in that respect imo.

At that size of resource on just the open T3 pit alone, this entire project is biddable by a major now and I would expect the market to reflect that immediately in the pricing this week. We haven't even got to seeing results from the new campaign yet or probable additional resource at T3 underground, never mind the T20 Dome complex to the south which is twice the size of the T3 Dome complex as a geo-feature, it really is exciting stuff :)

Catch you all in the morning :D

60mt is the magic number mate - Tier 2/mid-cap - a bona fide target in its own right for a T/O on the relatively tiny T3 open pit acreage alone.

That really has taken me by surprise I must admit, I knew the recent infills were good but I didn't expect it to be enough to catapult them that high, be it that they've dropped the grade a tad - what on earth is the new Expansion Case NPV going to be now??

OMFG!!!

Straight into/past the Expansion Case @ >=40mt lol

That is an epic upgrade, be it that they've pulled the grade back to c1% but that's good enough.

I wasn't expecting that!

Morning :)

So, what I was attempting to do with the prior post was to demonstrate how the market knows the real value here based on known information - primarily MOD's fully-funded current mcap and the probable value of a lowball hostile T/O attempt.

That valuation of 4s at MTR chimes directly with 162's own take on the *current* situation as we know it and with my own TA take, be it that I can project the 5-6p range being tested again (high monthly close @ 4.5p, high weekly close @ c5p, high daily close at 5.8p - bingo) but we're pretty much in the same ballpark here.

Do I think a hostile T/O would be successful at $0.70? Almost certainly not but if the market is being conservative, as 162 is, with their "bankable" valuation then you can see why that range of 4s+ to MTR is being targeted so consistently, however you choose to derive that "bankable" target range on current information.

FWIW, and in my own view, the Copper M&A arena is about to get competitive. I suspect there's a decent chance that given LIM, out of HK, are hoovering up c$0.45c MOD shares and committing (publicly) to holding for a minimum of two years through to production, if a major came in with a hostile T/O attempt you may see an aggressive reaction from LIM, or whoever they may be proxying for.

We're talking about Chinese money here. Julian Hannah may have tipped the wink already when suggesting he'd got a Chinese smelter in mind/lined up for the offtake. Clearly, I'm openly speculating here but the right asset in the right place at the right time? These things do happen.

Upside? Well, it's difficult to measure isn't it but if *one* T3 open pit is worth 4s then ......

I've tried to show my TA chart view as best I can with my various chart annotations but I'll try and flesh that out a bit now:

We have horizontal price pivots at c3/c4/c5p and ordinarily you would take those as being resistance points but given the forward-looking fundamentals side here, and our upward sloping "high voltage" support line at tuppence, I'm more minded to think of those as being new and unbreakable support levels after a rise above them. A rise that, imo, is likely to go above those numbers to reflect the parallel with the major support line over time. In short, new horizontal supports but rising highs over time. How much time? I've no idea and I don't know, for sure, what those highs will be either.

That said, I've liked 5s here for a year+ and as soon as 3s is gone then I like, broadly, 7s-9s.

Moon shot? 12-16p

Before I forget - @ dakad - MOD would be halted, MTR won't - go look at the chart in Spring 2016 for what happened last time around in that scenario on fab news/repeated halts.

One final note - I know y'all are keen to bank some profit but I'm going to warn you publicly here about what *may* happen *if* 3s is cleared out as 2s has been so far:

Those upper numbers and, maybe, much more than that.

https://twitter.com/AmberMining/status/1013150298381090817

Evening.

Bear in mind that regardless of what happens in the macro (ignore the copper price in 2018 imo), if a lowball hostile T/O came in for MOD on Monday (or, more likely, post-resource upgrade and/or promising new drill results) then in all likelihood that would have to be at a bare minimum of $0.70c (+50% over the recent funding price) which would secure an MTR SP of 4s+ on its own via a net +c£30m to MTR.

A lower offer would almost certainly be rejected outright, even by lazy funds looking for a quick buck, as there just wouldn't be enough on the table to make them, or us, take it. MOD have $0.90 on the board already and that was before the recent, large, funding dilution or the current huge exploration campaign kicking off after MOD dropped the news that they've got seven further dome targets in the T3 complex that kinda look just like T3. Even lazy IIs/dumb PIs wouldn't countenance chucking their hands in at less than 3/4 of that $0.90 number imo.

Ultimately, I think that 4s+ number is "bankable" here already, because the current/old PFS numbers on the T3 pit alone dictate it and it's only a matter of time until its seen here - relatively low/staged capex, $2.2b revenue, 38% IRR, 3.3 years payback then 5+ years of huge cash cow at wtf-knows-how-high a copper price on the old pre-resource upgrade PFS Expansion Case? Those are seriously attractive numbers for any investment in any sector and it's likely to get better than that.

162 has a conservative mid 4s shout in the MTR blog based on his bean counting, I'm 100% seeing the 5-6p range re-tested via my chart anytime from "now" and the "lazy/dumb" lowball/hostile T/O view outlined above all point to the same kind of SP numbers being seen at MTR at some point, surely that can't all be coincidence? (hint: it's not)

Then factor in immeasurable (for now ...) exploration upside, some of which (in 2018 H2) may well move the needle very firmly towards the possibility that MOD are sitting on a "cluster" of multiple significant resources in the T3 Complex, all close enough to each other to feed a single processing plant (modularly upgradeable by design), just like our neighbours Cupric Canyon.

That SP upside may very well turn out to be in the 4-8x bagging range (both MOD & MTR from their respective low SPs) - the upper ends of that range may be somewhat transient as the market overreaches/pencils in yet more longer-term upside (as they did here on the initial discovery in 2016 with the move to 6s) but it's doable on the right kind of news imo.

Inv123 is right imo, drop the right exploration news and it's not beyond the realms of possiblity that we get a MOD pre-news trading halt in the early hours followed by another shortly afterwards because a major has stepped in to call a halt to proceedings at the T3 Complex before the MOD SP/mcap runs away from it via the market reaction.

Buy a ticket, quickly, imo.

Afternoon.

Rio have a massive war chest of cash for M&A now and they're being marked down by analysts, compared to the likes of BHP, because they're not diversified enough in their asset types. They want Copper, a lot, and there's not much about given we're in the midst of the worst pipeline of Copper exploration/development projects in a century due to a major lack of investment in recent years.

I think it likely that they, amongst others, will be looking to diversify not just in terms of the asset type but mining jurisdictions too.

Majors are having their butts handed to them by govts all over the globe right now, in SA/DRC/Indonesia/Mongolia specifically. While they've gotta live with at least some of that because of the investments they've already made there, I can well imagine that Botswana as one of, if not the, most desireable jurisdictions in Africa and one of the best in the world is looking ever more attractive now for seeing new money from those guys if decent assets should happen to present themselves in a timely manner.

We're probably no further than another 20mt of decent grade resource away from leaping into the mid-cap/Tier 2 level resource category that majors and other mid-caps get interested in with respect to M&A and an imminent good resource upgrade may halve that gap, never mind what happens with the current exploration drill campaign going forward.

I could go on and on about the number of synergistic catalysts at play here, micro/macro/geopolitical/arbitrage, but it'd end up as another mega post and I don't have time but we've covered all these points in recent weeks/months.

The faux lack of interest that the "market" *always* effects prior to something unravelling hugely to the upside may be showing the first signs of a pre-news unravel in London due to the arbitrage opportunity but ultimately, it's what happens in Botswana/MOD that counts. It feels like hours/days now tbh, it could be weeks but it doesn't feel like it to me.

My usual £Pony to an African child-centric charity if this hasn't hit 5s by the end of Summer, 4x that if it does, 10x that if hits 7s+.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-rio-tinto-copper/rio-tinto-ready-to-splash-out-on-copper-idUSKBN1JP0LB

I hate to break it to some but MTR keep their various lights under bushels all the time because their MO of prodigious deal making dictates it.

Just because we got an RNS the other day it absolutely does not follow that the decision, by Alastair himself or otherwise, was made very recently or that it was planned or unplanned - we have no idea and we're not supposed to have any idea. What you can probably take from it is that whatever he was contributing towards the team effort is not required anymore or can be fulfilled by other members of the current or future team as the longer-term strategic priorities focus shifts over time as you would expect it to.

@ Bolgas, that is amazing timing with that post mate - I typed the above before seeing your post :)

What we do know is that we've quite clearly got a big buyer here since a couple of months ago, one that has a seemingly infinite bucket of cash to both push the SP from 2p to 3p in a straight line and to stop it from dropping more than a couple of tenths since then, presumably by sitting on the bid to catch all the sells (the genuine ones - few and far between imo).

That buyer may very well, in hindsight of course, turn out to be a London and/or HK based institutional investor and if part of Alastair's USP was to get that large investment sorted on-market then, yes, perhaps his job is done in that respect.

Guidance on "exit" opportunities? Well, honestly, throw that into the mix re the JV corporate action speculation along with the recent SP action and you can't help but wonder if it's a done deal, right?

Even on just a plain reading of the JV valuation if it all got chucked it at the current market rates (somewhat unlikely at this stage imo because of the likely MOD mcap upside!) then MTR would be trading at cash/liquid assets at 3s with zero upside priced in. We know this because MTR quite clearly went out of their way recently to lay out all they have/had on their books at the end of 2017.

If that's what's going on behind the scenes (or better, hopefully!) then that would go a long way to understanding why someone is sponging up everything they can at 2s because in that scenario, 2s is profit in the bank on day zero of the news drop with possibly bags of upside to come.

Add in former directors taking a ton of warranted shares at 2p right when we're expecting what could be pivotal news flow to start dropping from MOD re the drill campaign/resource upgrade and just before a new month/quarter kicks off and there would appear to be quite the synergy of events/timing here, be it that we don't yet know what it portends.

There's no fire here in that respect until we see it in black and white on the screen of course but the smoke is starting to billow perhaps?

We've got a vertically rising MA20 at c2.8p on Monday - that alone from a TA perspective would make me keep em very peeled very early doors next week.

It appears some think July/Q3 is great timing for a whopping T20 or two ;)