RE: evergrande?12 Oct 2021 12:37
I'm aware of all of that thanks - even though I'm an amateur ;)
Average house prices are now 9x average salaries in the UK - only inflation is covering up the reality that we're in a global recession/depression already but that illusion will likely pop next year
My post was referring to a "credit event" - the kind of event that tends to make banks pull up the drawbridge with respect to lending money to people to buy assets - the only argument against that is that banks don't want cash and boy you'd better believe they don't want cash on their balance sheets (hence their massive Gold buying over the past year or two).
No credit (and who would risk lending to you at 2% when they *know* they can get 200%+ via Gold?) means no new buyers means wobbles.
None of this is known but unprecedented 9x multiples of average salaries alone is asking for trouble at some point - the global credit card is maxed and then some. -ve rates or not, there will be wobbles ahead - timing your exit to perfection is a challenge to say the least of course.