Member Info for bonker99

Hey.

I can't give you a link to anywhere to confirm that's "true" or not but the consensus on FinTwit is that the modern day CPI number is approximately 1/3 of real-world inflation so as measured in the 1970s, the CPI would indeed be at 14%+ right now.

Shadowstats is a useful site to look at - of key importance IMO is the GDP charts comparing official GDP vs the reality since 2008, i.e. we've never recovered, it's only the BS official numbers making it look good:

http://www.shadowstats.com/article/no-438-public-comment-on-inflation-measurement

Afternoon.

Take note of the GGP news today and my comments recently re M&A in this space.

PS: Italy PPI: +22.1% YoY

The Central Bank of Ireland has increased its #gold reserves for the third month in a row. Gold reserves rose by 0.6t in November, taking YTD net purchases to 2.8t.

Considering Cassidy gave us Kouroussa for 28p shares I doubt you're going to see offers for less than that being viable :)

Putin starting to bang the drum re a split between East/West economically so that's picking up some traction today.

Just one of the reasons why we're here of course.

Got Gold?

Nice results - they certainly don't have a problem finding more Gold ...

So far, so great on my #USDJPY #Dollar inverse with #Gold shout from two days ago:

https://twitter.com/bonker_99/status/1471821714069807108?s=20

10-year back down to 1.4%, S&P red pre-market.

Gold @ $1,811

Morning.

Newmont's chart is an eye-opener as the World's biggest Gold miner with that +8.8% bump "out of nowhere" yesterday:

https://twitter.com/bonker_99/status/1471774804743180293?s=20

Also of note is Jim Cramer's shout for BTC > Gold yesterday - as one of the best reverse reads out there that's not easy to ignore either.

If you want signals for the time being right then these are pretty good IMO.

I'm standing by my read that other banks will raise rates (BoE have done, Mexico too yesterday) whilst the US have talked their rate rise for Spring 2022 which, IMO, will conveniently be after a Q1 GDP/discretionary trainwreck allowing them to not raise rates to put pressure on the Dollar which will help keep inflation boosted which, as we all know, is their actual #1 objective for a long time to come.

My *base* paper valuations here are predicated on $1,775 Gold remember, they ratchet up exponentially above there.

$1,808

Germany PPI: 19.2% - that's 2022's leading inflation indicator right there.

I gather that the World's biggest Gold miner - Newmont - went up by 8.8% today, its biggest daily rise this year and on no news apparently.

One other item - re the Hochschild/Amarillo takeover I mentioned below - I pulled that from a Twitter thread today where M&A activity in the Gold sector was being discussed by some notables in the FinTwit/Gold space. I happened to mention HUM because of the gobsmacking value proposition and a guy who has quite the following (a Gold stock fund manager in Boston no less - he does conferences etc) said he'd bought here :)

That was quite a head turner for me :)

You just never know what's going on in the background eh?

All part of the game :)

IIRC, HUM's original timescale was for the Kouroussa deal to be delivered in Q2 2021 - it slipped a whole quarter which is a hell of a lot closer than most miners ever get to delivering *anything*.

Regardless, as time goes by, I suspect the odds of HUM actually being in charge of Kouroussa and Dugbe by the time production comes around will diminish as this has takeover by a major written all over it.

DB's last share buy, IIRC, was in the 20s so pick a number well above there for that offer when it comes.

On paper, based on Dugbe and Kourossa alone at c$1,800 Gold, the value here will be £100m/20p but when Gold, inevitably, moves above $1,800 that valuation ratchets up considerably and of course makes Yanfolila, production woes notwithstanding, an even bigger cashcow to boot with the very realistic prospect of £500m of FCF being throw off over the next decade.

One way or another, 5m ounces of mostly costed/booked to reserves/financed Gold is not going to continue to be available at £50m for very long, certainly not past Q1 ...

To wit:

"Hochschild Mining acquired Amarillo Gold at an 80% premium.

Amarillo had developed a shovel-ready project in Brazil with an after-tax capital
payback of 18 months and an after-tax NPV 5% of $360 million, assuming gold at
$1,730. It was resilient to lower prices—the NPV at $1,400 gold was still a respectable
$183 million—and had operational leverage to higher prices, the reason why it was
included in Myrmikan’s portfolio."

Oh and lest I forget to mention it - the large amount of M&A by majors picking up smaller companies these past months.

All very highly entertaining still - nothing at all do with the 5m ounces of Gold HUM have across three projects and a £50m mcap of course ;)

Yeah, I stopped reading at "German bank" ;)

Looks like my shout yesterday for the USDJPY to turn down and inverse with Gold may be in play at the mo - so far, so good.

Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Dec: 15.4 (est 29.6, prev 39)

Well there's an interesting event - BoE notch rates up a touch - DXY responding in a negative manner as you would expect.

Perhaps this is how they kill the Dollar/keep inflation going/send Gold flying in 2022.

They're all in it together remember ...

BLACKROCK: OUT OF FAVOUR GOLD MIGHT SEE ITS FORTUNE TURN IN 2022.

Funny :)

Morning.

Well obviously I'm just continuing to laugh at the NOMAD's nonsense here re timing/content of news, as I'm sure they're laughing themselves :)

That's a genuine Worldy of an intercept and the grades/economics at Kouroussa were pretty stellar already.

Go right ahead and sell up if you like chaps ;)

I get that perspective completely but at 1/3 of real value, at the current Gold price, there's more than enough value factored in already for me but as I've been saying for some months now, it's your money and your choice.

Morning.

The organised take down continues then :)

£52m mcap is precisely what our 51% of Dugbe is worth at the 2022 Q2 DFS @ c$1,800 Gold and here we are.

Everything else, Yanfolila and Kouroussa, is for free - well done if you waited before taking some here - 2022+ should be spectacular.

Caught this earlier - old news but interesting nevertheless.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/exclusive-china-opens-its-borders-billions-dollars-gold-imports-sources-2021-04-16/