Member Info for bonker99

Let's see whether the Fed drop a rates bomb tonight :)

It's an interesting chart.

Everyone likes a free 5% :)

Also looking forward to what that divi may be by the time Gold ends up well north of $2k.

Afternoon.

With a bit of luck we'll see $1,910 but tough call from here.

PS: Give AAU a look

.

It's just theatre chaps :)

Right on the edge ...

https://twitter.com/bonker_99/status/1492220187873095688?s=20&t=p5VbT57bwhqaBLl8xK-MHQ

Sorry, it's not an "emergency" meeting, it's a "regular" meeting and it's not the FOMC but who knows - I note that Bloomberg are pushing back on suggestions of a raise before March ...

Morning.

I pointed to the $1,842 breakout line and that got tapped yesterday but a reasonable pullback from there so far.

Obviously what counts now is interest rate moves by the Fed - FYI, I believe they've called an "emergency" meeting for Monday so I have to assume they're going to raise rates there and then - some are talking 100bps which I find hard to believe but we could get 50bps.

What the market makes of that I don't know - most likely not very good I imagine as everyone is already tapped out and there's plenty of people sat on whopping new mortgages - even 50bps could break that IMO an you have to assume that will put pressure on the Gold price, at least in the short-term. If they end up doing a Volcker then who knows what happens but that kick-started a 20x bagging run on Gold over the next decade :)

It's going to be a very interesting next six months or so given there are US mid-terms in November - I'm not sure how the Fed/govt get themselves out of this bind other than simply doing a modest rates rise then crossing their fingers that brings inflation down but we know it won't ...

Just so.

FYI - the last time the Fed ended the debt reduction cycle, they pulled the Debt:GDP ratio back to 80% then started pumping it all over again.

We are/were at around 140% and, I'm informed, they managed to pull that back by c11% in the last year.

A clear implication of another four years of inflating it away which, shock, horror, gets you to the Gold top I've mentioned before around 2026 - that year arrived at by completely different metrics which is always nice to see.

Oof - nice buy.

Comedy candle on Gold :)

Stay with it :)

US January CPI 7.5% vs +7.3% expected

Indeed so I expect them to slam it later but we'll see.

To my eye, a weekly close above $1,842 from tomorrow seals a new Gold bull cycle that should last for at least four years so let's assume it won't be tomorrow then :)

I still like post-April and/or July/August for a real move.

With a bit of luck we'll get the slam and another opp to buy below 13p - I'm at 12s average now and very happy with maintaining that given the opp.

We know what the reality is - the CPI has, and always will be, an instrument to try and hide how much govts/banks are screwing people over year after year - real world inflation is c20% which we can all see at the petrol station, supermarkets (especially this year ...) and in our energy bills.

"Starting in January 2022, Weights for the Consumer Price Index will be calculated based on consumer expenditure data from 2019-2020. The BLS considered interventions but decided to maintain normal procedures".

Who knows what that means re what today's number will be but it's the usual 9-bob note MO.

FinTwit talking heads/blue checks are hard at work suggesting that 6% CPI this year instead of 7% CPI last year is deflation - let's see how dumb the herd really are ...

Tomorrow's CPI print is gonna be special.

FYI, they've changed (yes, really, again ...) how the calculate it from January - they're basing it on 2019-2020 data.

Don't ask.

Ouch.

Wholesale Inventories 2.2%, Exp. 2.1%, Last 2.1%
Wholesale Sales 0.2%, Exp. 1.5%, Last 1.3%

US MBA 30-YR MORTGAGE RATE ACTUAL 3.83% (FORECAST -, PREVIOUS 3.78%)

US MBA MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS ACTUAL -8.1% (FORECAST -, PREVIOUS 12.0%)

Top.

POLISH CENTRAL BANK RAISES MAIN RATE TO 2.75%

10-year @ 1.97% - so far, so great.