Member Info for bonker99

Nobody gets it right all the time but I get by :)

The point I'm maybe failing to get across is that picking around Yanfolila production numbers comes across as sweating the pennies whilst ignoring the pounds :)

There's a reason that this stayed below 12s for all of five minutes on the last production numbers - the money guys know it can't be valued at less than that because of the book values of Kouroussa and Dugbe at their respective DFS/PFS phases.

Even if you factor in the debt taken to fund Kouroussa you still can't get/keep it below 12s.

When the Dugbe DFS drops, however, that project's book value doubles so the new floor will be significantly higher than where we are now.

This is why I say the Yanfolila production numbers over the next year are really small beer in the scheme of things, both I and the market have written it off as worthless.

The Kouroussa loan isn't ring-fenced so they're not likely to be on their uppers even if Yanfolila doesn't turn a penny this year.

The real money will start coming in around this time next year via Kouroussa - until then and for my part, I've written Yanfolila off completely but if it produces a few quid of profit this year then from my perspective that's maybe some icing on the cake but it's not close to being the cake :)

Hopefully that explains my perspective more clearly - if Yanfolila starts throwing some decent cash off this year because of a lowered AISC then great but be advised that, bigger picture, what will give us an even bigger boost is if the gold price rises as that's a triple whammy for all three projects and I think that's very likely for Q3+.

Yanfolila production is irrelevant at this mcap but crack on - I'm enjoying the tag team ;)

Trades :)

Correction :)

Correct and that number @ 51% is 25p - Kouroussa at 1/4 the size/100% ownership is 12.5p.

Hence.

Correct and that number @ 51% is 25p - Kouroussa at half the size/100% ownership is 12.5p.

Hence.

"Anyone ever seen a project sold at DFS stage for what it said the project was worth"

What do you mean "for what it said the project was worth"?

As for your 13:32 post - well of course I understand that you're not speaking to me here, you're speaking to those looking in who fancy a punt at low teens - GL ;)

I don't do "experts" myself, certainly not in the environment of the last couple of years - the numbers I use are standard industry metrics, believe in them or don't believe in them, it's entirely up to you but as HUM plummeted from around 38p last year, well, enough said :)

There's no point arguing about it - I value this based on Kouroussa & Dugbe - as stated many, many times before, I've written off Yanfolila but even at an $1,800 AISC it's still pulling in some cash with Gold well north of there.

You appear to be choosing to value on profits, rather than rule-of-thumb asset valuations and that's fair enough but I think I'm right re what I'm saying/adding up and you're right with respect to profits.

As profits are virtually zero right now it's somewhat moot *but* at some point, my base numbers around c38p plus your profitability will see MUCH higher valuations going forward.

Ultimately and cutting through the noise - I'm waiting in the expectation that this will be valued at $250 per oz of Gold at some point, not the current $25 per oz of Gold.

I trust you've all looked back at the all-time chart here with respect to the 130-170p range.

To final rug-pull or not to final rug-pull, that is the question.

It's all good.

Bottom line: Kouroussa & Dugbe @ DFS numbers are worth 38p - feel free to discount because of increased energy costs as you see fit.

The other bottom line: 3m+ oz of Gold reserves, all costed/DFSed - are currently being valued at $25 per oz.

How long is this going to last do you think?

An interesting mix of valid comments and numbers along with some other stuff that clearly suggests that you have no idea how mining projects are valued at PFS/DFS stages - pre-production market valuations exist, it's a fact, that's the entire point of a NPV :)

Wait and see.

It's really very low - see what turns up :)

I'm not too concerned about AISC at this stage either because Gold is strong, is very likely to remain so whilst we stay in this planned hyperinflationary period, and reading too far ahead is impossible of course.

Ultimately, no matter how you slice it up, when you're dealing with a 300k pa multiplier then it's really not difficult to get to genuine nosebleed numbers when your starting point is a £50m mcap :)

I have broad, major, targets for Gold at $2.4-$3.1k and $4.5k-$5k and beyond there $7k/$10k.

Ridiculous, right?

Maybe they are but they're far from unprecedented - in the 1970s planned hyperinflationary decade Gold 20x bagged from $40 to $800 whilst chasing the 10-year all the way up to 10% and beyond.

Our starting point for this drive is an even $1k so a 4x is most certainly not out of the question over the next few years, especially if the US ends up implementing YCC/NIRP next year as their economy inevitably continues to crater in real terms.

The 10-year is currently at an eye-watering 2.4% - why eye-watering? Well because the US didn't have a 140% Debt:GDP ratio back in the 1970s so they were able to push it all the way to 10%+ with Gold tracking it.

They can't do that anymore because they'll be officially bankrupt within a couple of years *unless* inflation stays hyper to also drive up their tax revenue to pay the increased debt interest.

Ultimately, Gold can go up forever as it hurts nobody.

Oil can't.

Rates can't.

Debt can't.

Name me the one asset that hasn't been bubbled in the last decade - how are the major beneficiaries of those other, prior, bubbles going to defend their wealth over the next five or so years whilst everything else goes sideways, at best, in real terms?

US 2/10s just inverted for the first time in three years.

Round about now is when everyone ****s themselves and goes defensive.

Got Gold?

300k oz pa @ $2k AISC / $3k Gold price = $300m of cash thrown off pa

Will it happen?

I don't know.

Could it happen?

Yes.

If it does happen and you look back in five years but you didn't kitchen sink it at 13s will you feel bad?

Very.

This sure is low :)

It's that time I think - the next few months is going to be super interesting ...

Always tough to know where the exact bottom is but I'm always a buyer of anything with a sub-20 RSI, not a seller ...

The only fly in the ointment for me is that I can't believe the Money Guys want this conflict to resolve so quickly.

BTW - I'm sure at least some of you will be aware of the Russia/Ruble/Gold buzz that's doing the rounds on FinTwit.

Interesting take here and totally viable IMO:

"With the #ruble rising and #dollar dropping to around 88 the Russian Central bank 5000 price per gram of #gold is now equivalent to $1750. At #usdrub 70 the price would be $2221. That would encourage the world to buy #gold in the West and sell to #Russia. Could cleanout LBMA!"

This is all pre-planned of course IMO - the Basel 3 guys needed something to put a rocket under the Gold price, over and above inflation, so their Gold balloons in value and keeps their balance sheets on an even keel when the economic balloon inevitably goes up.