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Surprised by this , had thought Cairn might make a bid for Pharos Energy as they share 2 license areas. Or Trinity Exploration, or Tower Resources. Can't see what Cairn get out of this . So another big boring slow mover then like Harbour Energy. E&P Mid caps with multi bag potential getting harder to find on LSE

Had thought Afentra might be interested a while back with their 40 million in cash but they've done a deal in Angola. Farm outs offer much more upside imo

A few posts on Advfn re. Merger possibility

Going the Cameroon production / Farm in route would surely be much much more rewarding mid to long term

but if one was to speculate who might wish to acquire TRP at current mkt cap then of the bigger UK mid caps Tullow Cairn Harbour or maybe cash rich Serica who were v. early into Namibia in 2011 & relinquished Namibia in 2020 due to perceived lack of progress. Think AOI and ECO have plenty acreage there by now

Only 6 trades so far today in Pharos versus 60 at Hurricane Energy . Yet both produce similar amounts. Seismic from Vietnam Exploration blocks due soon, might light a fire under this

1 for 10 might alleviate this constant buy the rumour sell the news that is occurring here . 2.7 Billion shares is facilitating this behaviour imo

Some Frustrating news tbh but at least the license extension is out of the way & debt financing is usually only available to companies with proven reserves so if that's on the table then it implies confidence in the production prospects.

Edit

The production Block contains a large amount of remaining undeveloped OIP ( 1 Bn or so ) of which 20% would be to Afentra on top of the 4000 bopd.

Afentra ex Tullow management has signed a deal for 4,000 bopd from 20 million 2P reserves ( 20% share of a block with 100 million current 2p reserves . That equates to 13.4 years of production.

$80 million + $50 million in contingent payments .

The Block contains a large amount of remaining OIP ( 1 Bn or so ). Also in deal is 100% of a large exploration license with a discovery ).

How much of the 130 million cost to AET can be attributed to the 4000 bopd / 20 million p2 reserves element is hard to quantify but perhaps some read across can be made, & it shows the appetite for buying into production assets in the region. I had wondered last Yr whether Afentra with their 40 million in cash might look at Tower . Aet looking like a good buy shortly after suspension lifts but they need to secure debt financing for the balance of the 80 million I understand. One to watch

Should add I'm familiar with RKH. bought it at 8p in 2009 although sold at 35p and missed the Sea Lion Mega run. Used to hold BOR and Fogl too back in those days. Unbelievable how RKH got all of FOGL acreage and Sea Lion appraised and years later the SP and cash balance is where it is. Priced as if the whole thing never happened. Lesson being if you hit the jackpot on an exploration well sell as high as you can and come back a decade later. Development cycle is a whole different kettle of fish

Hi , took a punt on this last year around 8p thinking an Obrina Mare award might triple or quadruple the share price but sold it a few months ago It now seems that an award decision if any, is 4 to 6 months away from today's date. With 3.8 million in cash and no near term prospect of income it seems to me that the SP could drift lower in next few months. Could see fundraising at 5-6p area imo. Bit of a disaster for LTH . Shouldn't have sold the Egyptian production. It was 2000 boepd I think? That would have kept the lights on.

Assuming All of the Mid case figure for Contingent Reserves of 35.4 million barrels can be extracted, this equates to 9,700 bopd for 10 years ( averaged in simplistic terms) on top of existing production. Also the new reserves addition of 2.4 million barrels is 1 years production at 6,575 bopd . So of the 3.2 million barrels produced last year , 75% of that has been replenish ed by the CPR . Not bad and should provide comfort. Single well risk still an issue but one would expect funding should be forthcoming for 1 or 2 additional wells once debt free in current High Oil price environment

Flying Pie, thx

I guesstimated 100 million $ so exactly halfway between your 2 hypothesis. Whether HUR will let cash accumulate for a few months or immediately go for more drilling and maybe new debt remains to be seen.

Assuming Bonds cleared in June, 10k boepd maintained and say 80$ oil floor til end 2022, What's the Cash flow Projected for H2 2022 anyone ?

Nice rise today. Namibia Welwetchia prospect looks gigantic in surface area terms at 25km x 10km . Bit early to speculate re. GBP Italian acreage but Italy deal with Algeria indicates urgency to secure Gas supplies. So offshore Italy exploration might be encouraged now and accelerated . GBP have application under review for 4 large blocks

Bought a handful of these this morning at what appears to be a good entry point. Been in TRP a few yrs. New website is a big improvement. Italian acreage application adds a bit of interest

Graff Discovery 2 Billion boe

https://www.upstreamonline.com/exclusive/happy-days-shell-s-graff-discovery-in-namibia-holds-2-billion-boe-of-oil-and-gas-sources/2-1-1197669

Good recap or intro for those unfamiliar with Cameroon License. Low risk Appraisal drill , 100 million prospective to North and potentially Major Deep exploration upside. Total let this License go because they hadnt processed seismic and were not interested in the small scale shallow prospects at the time. Majors such as Total go for the biggest drills as is evidenced by their recent 3 in a row run with Brulpadda, Luiperd and Venus. All 3 expected to be 1 Bn recoverable . Interesting bits start around 4mins in

https://youtu.be/99o5-9G7XFE

Was a whisker away from buying Serica at 3p in 2016 when they were priced for failure. 100+ bagger !

I bought Chariot previously in 2009 at 14p , sold at 84p. Thats why I revisited at 2p. Missed the 2011 run to 400p on Char. I chose to hold TRP rather than Char this time round as I thought the 8000 bopd potential in shallow water of Thali would attract Investment long before offshore Gas. Funny how the market can confound your expectations

This should be a little higher in time, but it's hard to watch so many other small companies the oil sector motor ahead. Just watching Chariot oil hit 20p. I bought it in 2019 around 2.5p around same time as Tower but sold a Yr later. A 10 bagger let go