Member Info for bobliz35

Hi Tibbs, Mikefreedom

A very good confirmation of "DONT DO IT" and similar life experience as mine.
However long term investment has paid off for me as in CEY at start 33p (and do I remember the drop to 22p --oh yes!!!)and Johnson Mathey at about 900 (currently 2920) and who paid 86p per share divi in 2019

Bob

Hi Repression

Re reading my post I didn't adequately explain the finish .

Assume your short has gone well and the share price has declined from 100p to say 95p then judiciously you take the profit which you exit by closing your open short by putting into the sell side an offer to buy at 95p. When taken up then if you had 200000 shares profit less costs would be 10000 pounds for your original deposit of 20,000. However alternatively if it goes against you by 5p then you have lost 10,000 from your deposit.

Market manipulation can occur if using CFD successive lower entries to buy are entered into the sell side. eg you are asking the market to sell to you at successive lower price.

Not a very adequate explanation but hope shines a little light on the market options. As said previously glad to hear you will keep clear unless you enjoy hanging one handed on a cliff face whilst throwing large denomination notes into the void.

I always make the right decisions in hindsight. Example No brainer for a CEY rise this am. Hope now for a steady rise into the end Jan statement and as Rebess wishes.
Bob

Hi Repression

Ok will try to explain re Leveraged CFD shorts and Longs.

Unless you are a financially secure Institutional investor with a guaranteed credit line with a Broker you would need to lodge as an individual a sum of money
(GNI touch used to bottom limit this to circa 20000 + and may have changed probably upwards of this now) There are of course other Banks ,brokers who offer similar access directly into the "BOOK" the BOOK is the trading platform provided by the London Stock Exchange . All shares are categorised as to Market value. FTSE 100 comprises are the top 100, FTSE 250 is the next and then the remainder listed on AIM the Alternative Investment Market. The FTSE 100 and 250 are open shout markets where shares owned or wishing to be bought are registered. The AIM market is supported by a broker or brokers who will set bid and offer to enable liquidity in a small share.
The book has 2 columns a buy side and a sell side. This is where having opened a trading account directly into the book it gets complicated. The buy side (sell) and ask(buy) is the price you will get as a private investor if you buy or sell a share. For example currently CEY you buy at 1.22 and if you sell 1.20. This is called the spread. With direct acess if you wish to buy CEY you would put the number required into the sell side . eg you are offering to the market to sell to you at 1.20. You effectively have the advantage of buying at the lower end of the spread. The opposite if you wish to sell, Difficult to get the head round I know.
Now if you wish to go short you do not need to own the shares . Your broker will either from their own or arranged sources lend you the shares to sell. This is called an open short. If you have a CFD account (Contract for Difference) then you have a leveraged opportunity . This can be as high as 20 times for a FTSE100 company or 10 times for a FTSE 250 company (set by your broker) Therefore if you wish to utilise your 20000 pounds to the full you have buying or selling ability of 200000 to 400000. If you go short then the value of the sale will or used to accrue interest in your account. Similarly if long then you will be charged interest on the purchase amount.
Assuming the trade goes against you and the price rises against your short or drops against your long this will be measured against the funds in your account until the loss cannot be covered , At that time the broker will make what is called a margin call on you to put up mote funds or close out the trade without further reference to you. Leaving you wit the loss.
I am sure there are others on this very well informed board who will correct or add to my explanatrion but hope it helps somewhat. All education in the market is of value. I stopped CFD trading after taking a big hit with Abbey National and to preserve my sanity. I fully endorse Tibbs caution in this respect.
Bob

My rough and ready reckoning is that at current exchange rate return on Centamin share at 1.20 pounds would be 6.5 to 7%.

Although capital appreciation on share value is nice as a long term holder the divi is much the currently attractive end of the CEY story. The fall in price is the noise that always follows a M&A of those in for a quick buck and fully expect price after a decent report on or about the 31st Jan to rise (steady hopefully not in a sharp increase)
6 TO 7% return on any investment is remarkable and even more so when there are now noises of Central Banks cutting interest rates once again as inflation figures are not hitting any where near their target range. Very happy and will sleep well tonight.

Bob

Hi Tiger
Just soaked up the remainder left on this years ISA at this bargain price. No brainer chance that rarely comes along
Bob

Hi Repression

Can understand your confusion and when dust of today settles will post here to try and clear the mystery of CFD shorts and Longs of course.

Bob

Hi Tibbs

You are absolutely correct and leveraged CFD trading comes with a very very strong health warning and like you I made monopoly money on the demo account but the whole scenario changes when you have skin in the game. My offer was under no way to encourage retail investors to take it on but explain how the larger Institutional Investors can manipulate a situation to an advantage either way. Add in automated algorithmic trading and you are usually on a hiding to nothing.

Still basking in the good news
When golden flip flop day arrives must have a party somewhere decent in the City to celebrate. Roll on.

I think obviously the big Institutional players signalled not happy with END offer hence END face saving announcement.

Sad to say on the wagon in January so cannot properly celebrate until the 31st (I know not the end of Jan but it will be a Friday and happily digesting CEY strong announcement) Tattinger on ice in prep.

Bob

Be not concerned at share price shown here which is on an delayed basis. Current stands at 122/123
Will continue to rise in my opinion and Jan 31st statement could prove intersting.

Bob

Endeavour got in first on announcement and cited insufficient time to conclude due diligence. What a load of rubbish. Centamin accounts are regulated by the rules governing a Company listed on the FTSE 250 and Registered in Jersey which whilst not Draconian has a srtrict code of compliance. Additionally CEY has only 1 mine at Sukari and would have had a far more difficult job in deciphering the accounts and statements and site visits of END.

Great news but still vulnerable to a.n.other approaching them.
I hope and look forward to a statement by the CEY Board if any.
Bob

Although many here are pretty sophisticated investors if any body would like an explanation as to how a CFD short position works I can try to simplify an explanation.

Bob

I will say following my previous post is that I did NOT short CEY as I certainly didnt want to aid END as CEY has strong future prospects , divi, better management without a possible rat in the camp , and with new mining laws tremendous new opportunities in Egypt plus perhaps Burkina Faso and Cote d Ivoire coming into production over the next 5 year period. Cash in the bank, no debt. Cant blame END for wishing to snatch such a pearl to bolster their financials.
Bob

Bob

How sorely tempted I was to put in a shorting order on CEY at close of trading yesterday evening in anticipation of a very hard push by La Mancha and Endeavour Brokers to get CEY down this am. expect this negative to hold until 3.30-4.00 pm when the open shorts are closed by purchase balance or after END make a slightly higher offer but still within their less than 50% margin.

My opinion and not based on hard advice .

Bob

As I have said before the large Institutional investors will decide the outcome of the END approach and may well depend on their short term need on quarterly figures. I have been ascertaining the Blackrock position and came across this fascinating article which points to a probable fear of the US Regulators when dealing with voting rights on certain companies with individuals under judicial reviews previously.
https://fortune.com/2014/07/07/blackrock-larry-fink/

About La Mancha
La Mancha’s largest shareholder, French nuclear reactor maker Areva, expects to earn C$315 million from selling its stake in the Canadian gold producer to Weather II, a business run by Egyptian entrepreneur Naguib Sawiris.

further
France: Endeavour boss Sébastien de Montessus faces inquiry over corruption scandal at Areva

Make your own conclusions.

Bob

Will be most interested to make diary note whatever happens (hopefully END will be consigned to irrelevant CEY history by then ) of or about the 24th January which is when they published their 4th quarter report in 2019

Late surge in CEY price encouraging to say the least

Bob

Hi Tibbs

Opening up positions on a put and call basis effectively maintains a status quo. It is in effect a hedge against a decline in share value. Against this of course is that there is no benefit from an up tick on value. It speaks to me that tere is a fragile situation in place which END are desperate to protect from shocks. Ooooh dear.

Bob

Hi Dasut

Thanks for that so in percentage terms broadly similar holdings. Will try and analyse in sterling terms cash investment at current share price unless you have a handle on it already. Off hand do you see the bias in CEY or END favour? They both will have the scales tipping in favour either way if it comes to a vote recommended by the Centamin Board, Very very much hope not unless substantial offer increase . Cannot see this happening as would this not push the relative offer above 50%in CEY favour or am I looking at this totally wrong.

Bob

Hi Tibbs

Great story re Mr Tibbles. Would make a great screen play with ending shot of Mr Tibbles reclining on back seat of a Roller in the showroom after his very bad and early life experiences. Hope Centamin can follow similarly.

Bob

Hi JEPh

I had posted previously that Blackrock held at the last RNS 12.7% of issued shares in circulation and that Van Eyck just over 10.3% . I have tried to ascertain their exposure in Endeavour by comparison but so far unsuccessful.

Bob

Hi again Mr Bond

Good to hear your hands on experience of seasonal variationss on production.
This season however the wet season (last quarter) was 4 times the annual seasonal average. Endeavour however maintained approximately the same production output albeit by utilisation of reserve grade and higher grade resources.
https://s21.q4cdn.com/954147562/files/doc_financials/2019/q3/191105-EDV-Presentation-Q3-Results.pdf

Bob