Adam Davidson, CEO of Trident Royalties, discusses offtake milestones and catalysts to boost FY24. Watch the video here.
I will say following my previous post is that I did NOT short CEY as I certainly didnt want to aid END as CEY has strong future prospects , divi, better management without a possible rat in the camp , and with new mining laws tremendous new opportunities in Egypt plus perhaps Burkina Faso and Cote d Ivoire coming into production over the next 5 year period. Cash in the bank, no debt. Cant blame END for wishing to snatch such a pearl to bolster their financials.
Bob
Bob
How sorely tempted I was to put in a shorting order on CEY at close of trading yesterday evening in anticipation of a very hard push by La Mancha and Endeavour Brokers to get CEY down this am. expect this negative to hold until 3.30-4.00 pm when the open shorts are closed by purchase balance or after END make a slightly higher offer but still within their less than 50% margin.
My opinion and not based on hard advice .
Bob
As I have said before the large Institutional investors will decide the outcome of the END approach and may well depend on their short term need on quarterly figures. I have been ascertaining the Blackrock position and came across this fascinating article which points to a probable fear of the US Regulators when dealing with voting rights on certain companies with individuals under judicial reviews previously.
https://fortune.com/2014/07/07/blackrock-larry-fink/
About La Mancha
La Mancha’s largest shareholder, French nuclear reactor maker Areva, expects to earn C$315 million from selling its stake in the Canadian gold producer to Weather II, a business run by Egyptian entrepreneur Naguib Sawiris.
further
France: Endeavour boss Sébastien de Montessus faces inquiry over corruption scandal at Areva
Make your own conclusions.
Bob
Will be most interested to make diary note whatever happens (hopefully END will be consigned to irrelevant CEY history by then ) of or about the 24th January which is when they published their 4th quarter report in 2019
Late surge in CEY price encouraging to say the least
Bob
Hi Tibbs
Opening up positions on a put and call basis effectively maintains a status quo. It is in effect a hedge against a decline in share value. Against this of course is that there is no benefit from an up tick on value. It speaks to me that tere is a fragile situation in place which END are desperate to protect from shocks. Ooooh dear.
Bob
Hi Dasut
Thanks for that so in percentage terms broadly similar holdings. Will try and analyse in sterling terms cash investment at current share price unless you have a handle on it already. Off hand do you see the bias in CEY or END favour? They both will have the scales tipping in favour either way if it comes to a vote recommended by the Centamin Board, Very very much hope not unless substantial offer increase . Cannot see this happening as would this not push the relative offer above 50%in CEY favour or am I looking at this totally wrong.
Bob
Hi Tibbs
Great story re Mr Tibbles. Would make a great screen play with ending shot of Mr Tibbles reclining on back seat of a Roller in the showroom after his very bad and early life experiences. Hope Centamin can follow similarly.
Bob
Hi JEPh
I had posted previously that Blackrock held at the last RNS 12.7% of issued shares in circulation and that Van Eyck just over 10.3% . I have tried to ascertain their exposure in Endeavour by comparison but so far unsuccessful.
Bob
Hi again Mr Bond
Good to hear your hands on experience of seasonal variationss on production.
This season however the wet season (last quarter) was 4 times the annual seasonal average. Endeavour however maintained approximately the same production output albeit by utilisation of reserve grade and higher grade resources.
https://s21.q4cdn.com/954147562/files/doc_financials/2019/q3/191105-EDV-Presentation-Q3-Results.pdf
Bob
Might explain denial that 900 mm of rain would not adversely affect production at END flagship mine and why I was anxious to know whether CEY due diligence was to include mine visits. MMMMM
Bob
Cowichan
I believe in 2016-2017 Centamin made big news out of their undertaking a feasibility study on a solar energy plant. I cannot think of a location which would be able to generate a more serious contribution to a sustainable energy source than the Sukari region of Egypt. . Would provide a perfect synergy with your electric Muckahi underground system and dramatically reduce AISC.
I presume you will be putting your thought processes to the Centamin Board and if so what progress on the solar plant exercise.
Bob
Hi El Prof
Thankyou for your kind remarks. When the focus of attention was Centamin and performance then I felt I could offer very far less than yourself, Tibbs , Cowichan Dasut, Sotolo, Tiger by the tail Dasult and of course that lovely caring chap Siko . (sadly lacking his thoughts at this time) Happy to digest sound ,honest opinion. However, with Endeavour in the frame I have tried to bring that dimension to this board. Many thoughts go through my mind eg Bank Mandate levels and crystallisation date, does the Royalty element hold a senior debt position , and others but hope due diligence by the Centamin team will burrow down into these details.
Will Centamin Board make an announcement with justification as to why on the 15th plus further info on AISC and forward projections. Fascinating
Bob
Do any more expert contributors to this board detect a note of desperation in Endeavours attempts to manipulate the market
They are not in a position to make a cash approach and indeed may be leaching their slim resources in pursuing their opportunistic approach. made far less likely by yesterdays announcement into the market place re 4th quarters figures and forward looking prospects.
May of course be wishful thinking on my part.
Bob
Indeed Mr Bond RNS from Numis this am (broker to Endeavour UK) I f I am interpreting correctly took a bath yesterday to close an open position.
Blackrock as far as I can determine still hold 12.7% of Centamin and Van Eyck some 10.3% although I believe Van Eyck hold on an algorithmic undertaking for their gold fund . Others here will know better than I .
As indicated by more expert knowledge here AISC could severely affect where this is all going.At least CEY didnt have to cope with about a metre of rain last quarter.
Bob
Hi Tibbs
Totally agree your comments . Invested in CEY since a map on the wall awaiting the crusher plant from South America at 33p and topped up over many years so that CEY represent at least 75% of my portfolio at this time. I have taken heart through the difficult times from the informed opinions here (good and bad) The base of my opinion is quite simple , gold in the ground does not deteriorate , rust , age and get surpassed by new models and technology improvements, it has been a standard of value since before ancient Egypt civilisation. As a shareholder I have bought and exercise with esteemed others here the right to ask the B.O.D as to current ,past or future performance criteria. All my received dividends have been converted back into additional CEY shares which I regard as a true measure of support rather than ad hoc dipping in and out at convenient times. At least 65-70% of wholesale investors day trading under CFD lose money!!!!
Good luck all , might be an interesting day.
Bob
Hi Cowichan, Tibbs
Have received a reply from Chris Judd of Buchanan re the queries I sent mirroring Cowichans concerns.
Usual disclaimer but as stated all info in the public domain I am happy to post here after researching the reports stated.
However as Cowichan has his finger on the pulse of this one happy to defer to his better analysis and avoid repetition if you and others have had a reply no doubt as mine
Bob