Member Info for bobliz35

Hi Siko

This board will be very much less informed by your absence but the very best for your trip to Egypt. A wonderful country and although I have only done the pampered tourist bit found the people so hospitable and welcoming with almost an embarrassing need to make our stay memorable and comfortable. You may already be outside the range of this board but was fascinated by the comment regarding Centamin by the Assistant Prime Minister regarding Centamins future involvement in Egyptian gold mining . Can you throw any further observation on that comment ? Seemed very strong statement from a very high ranking Government official. However have a good trip.

Bob

Hi Gnome

Many thanks for your valued opinion. I sincerely hope the "window" closes quickly albeit not to sell my shares at a higher price but to maximise long term holding The three points which I consider relevant at present are
1) I believe Management will have learnt their historical lesson and the forecast for the 1st and 2nd half probably under estimated to ensure achieved or exceeded performance.
2)The END approach has raised the profile of Centamin substantially although no doubt the major players will have Chapter and Verse on all possible M&A opportunities.
3) With the new mining laws (of course the devil is always in the detail) and the statement recently by the Egyptian Assistant Prime Minister that Centamin is expected to become a major player in the development of the mining sector in Egypt in the next few years a bargain basement acquisition of Centamin oven ready and leading a major expansion of mining gold in Egypt looks attractive.
Having held CEY for some years I would like to see it achieve full stand alone success
Obviously DYOR
Regards Bob

I posted before the Centamin Board statement and forecast that we must expect a retrenchment as momentum traders and short term holders take their penny profits on CFD leverage positions. Foe almost the first time in my investment life I followed my own prognostication and this morning maxed out my wife's ISA for the year on Centamin at the bottom of the market price. Roughly 3% gain in one day although the divi at 6+% was the aim. Now very concerned as to being so overweight in Centamin at the expense of FTSE 100 Johnson Mathey although held since 2003 at about 900 and still holding a fair few.
I am surprised that nobody here has challenged my thoughts on Barrick and having now completed my analysis of when they begin to accrue cash the results at anything above 1500 is astonishing. Happy to compare thoughts with others who have also looked at Barrick in this way. Siko is a star in presenting to this board the statement from the Decision Support Centre. The final paragraph on Centamin being a major centre piece of the expansion programme is in my humble opinion to be taken at face value and may say volumes as to Sawiris and Endeavour wishing to be involved in the action.
Of course all the above may be wishful thinking and as the old saying goes " do your own research"

Bob

Hi Dasut and Tibbs

I forgot to mention that I would be very un happy if such an approach was made for Centamin by anyone before future performance justified what I believe to be fair value for my share holding.

Bob

Hi Dasut and Tibbs

Still ploughing through Barrick q4 and year end report and trying to assess when they become cash positive during 2020 which will very quickly accumulate if past history is a pointer to the future. They are not averse to 50/50 joint venture as herewith and although murky their partner Ma'aden has had and probably still has strong links to the Saudi Royal family and the Saudi Sovereign wealth fund. Geographically in todays terms not too far away form Sukari. Obviously mining copper and not gold in Saudi. Shareholders (and I would refer to almost all here) dislike cash not being utilised to boost Company expansion and I would suggest Barrick Institutional investors will feel the same way were Barrick accumilating a cash balance and not utilising same.
I dont hold Barrick but very tempting in current climate.
The Jabal Sayid copper operation is located 350 kilometers north-east of Jeddah in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It’s a 50/50 joint venture operation with Ma’aden. The first shipment of copper concentrate occurred in December 2015, and the mine commenced commercial production in July 2016.

Bob

At current share price I believe my investment in Centamin will return approx 6% this year. However as a long term holder at well below this figure it is embarrassing to work actual s even allowing for inflation over the period of time I have held whilst compounding the divis I have reinvested in Centamin against what could have been achieved in an interest bearing account . All in a stocks and shares ISA free of tax. As I have previously predicted there would be a pull back as the short term momentum traders take their pennies profit and I had great temptation to short in line with this thought but having said never again resisted and remain satisfied with the divi. Share price fluctuations are almost an irrelevance to me but I do understand the frustrations of those in at higher levels than myself. Long term is the way to look at market investment
as I have gained in my portfolio on that basis but always lost on short term-ism.

Can Barrick afford to be out of Egypt as it must be a very attractive (in comparison to other global locations from Geo-political norms) As already mentioned here debt free shortly and free cash available late 2020 and certainly 2021. Maybe sooner if gold holds above 1550. Happy to be shot down by other more experienced board members.

Cap Ferat on the divi in June.

Bob

No problem Phil, took me some time to fathom it out albeit some time ago.

Trades shown after the close may also be large trades above NMS and be very confusing other than when you realise that the price is that struck (say at 10 am) but the market may have risen or fallen substantially by then and therefore be shown misleadingly in either the buy and sell column.
https://help.stockopedia.com/technical-guide/prices/exchange-market-size

Why are my latest trades delayed?
Most on-exchange trades are published the instant they’re executed, and most off-exchange trades are reported to the exchange and published almost immediately.

But some types of trade (both on- and off-exchange) are allowed to be published with a delay (often depending on the size of the trade), so may not be announced until minutes, hours, or even days later. Similarly, corrections or cancellations for existing trades may not appear until hours or days later.

Hope helps

Bob

Hi philandlynne

It can be misleading that buys and sells are not always what they seem and indeed a buy can be asell and vice versa .
To avoid reams of typing I suggest you have a read of the following which may help understanding.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/81/idiots-guide-to-the-london-stock-exchanges-setsmm-0379.html
Large sells and buys can be even more misleading as notification to the market can be delayed for some time NMS is an expression which indicated Normal Market Size . I think in Centamin terms this is 10,000 and their are rules as to how these are treated. I am sure other experienced investors here can help or better advise you on these topics.

Bob

I am sure others more capable than I will pick over the "bones" of the announcement but it is exactly what I was hoping for a cautious but positive up lift in production validated by a strong 4th quarter although I was hoping for a more expansive statement on African assets. The concession agreement does have its better side and good to have firmed up that the solar project will be covered by the agreement. Will the African project be expanded upon in the conference call. although possibly the concentration of management resource on sorting out Sukari might have contributed to lack of focus in this area.

Bob

Hi Tibbs

Totally agree your thoughts in support of Cowichans approach to the FACTS regarding Centamin previous management performance and his very succinct , and measured posts on this board. We are lucky to have such contribution to the analysis of our investment performance and is an excellent reminder to past and hopefully future performance.
Equally I agree that the big Institutional investors are in the game for gain but are we not all in the same mode. I think however that Blackrock et al must have been supportive of our rejection of Endeavour otherwise we would now be in Endeavours clutches make no mistake. Equally I follow the RNS and have done so for a number of years and cannot remember when Blackrock were less than 10% invested in Centamin. I am not invested in either Blackrock or Endeavour but even if I were or others here I would defend there right so to do although might question the validity of that investment with facts and not rhetoric
Here's hoping for a good but cautious statement by the Centamin Board for the future.

Bob

Thanks Prof your sage words have made my morning better.

Roll on Friday

Bob

Apologies for my errant typing. Obviously "management could afford to" should follow " No "

Lack of alcohol as in "dry January " mode to blame for both prevarication and rubbish typing ability.

Miss both alcohol and my P.A.in a former life.

Roll on Friday , Sauvignon Blanc , a good Medoc claret and a few Courvoisier. Sadly spouse has banned Havanas from my life.

Bob

Bob

Hi El Prof
Currently at 11.20 up 2.88%. The general market is up but it would appear those with privileged access to the impending forecast have stolen a march on us small fry again. Why do I always get the timing wrong as I had liquidised funds to top up my ISA with max CEY shares and in prevarication missed out again. doh!!!!
Still added but 3-4p down on what I could have got in at. Never mind still confident for next year as I believe CEY current management will be cautious but confident and production quarterly statements throughout year above forecast. No
FTSE 250 can compound the errors of the past under P .Non Execs whose future earning capacity relies solely on their professional standing will be all over the figures like a rash prompted by the big players like Blackrock et al.

Ploughed through Endeavour Report and still mighty relieved we didn't end up in their clutches. Ponsi comes to mind.

Bob
management could afford to

Hi Tibbs

As usual you have hit the nail fairly and squarely on the head. It would appear from the 4.3%rise so far today that the market is now getting up to speed re Centamin in anticipation of month end report. Even if the report is very positive do not be surprised at a fall back after announcement . Just normal market noise and profit taking. Will recover within a few days .
Buy on the rumour, sell on the reality will ensue.

Bob

Quite interesting to dig down into Companies linked to Centamin.

From Capital Drilling website :-

Capital Drilling Ltd (LON:CAPD) told investors it has landed an important new contract extension, keeping its rigs active at Centamin’s Sukari gold mine, in Egypt, until at least 2023.

It presently has a fleet of 14 rigs at Sukari where it provides blast hole and grade control drilling services for Centamin’s open pit operation. Capital drilling has been active at the mine since 2005.

The main shareholder in Capital Drilling is Awale Resources Ltd at 13.5%

Guess who is the major shareholder in Awale Resources. None other than END Royalty holder Sandstorm Gold at 17.7%

Seems the Gold mining industry is a very incestuous business.

Bob

Hi Cowichan

With regard my remark re wholly owned subsidiary I was thinking more of a ring fenced African set up

Bob

Hi Cowichan

I equally added my voice to yours and others to Buchanan and got the standard reply as yours.

In your experienced opinion to what end was this obfuscation promoted and at whose instigation. Buchanan are surely just the mouth piece of the Board and are therefore informing share holders on the party line to put forward. Was Pardey the prime originator of the silence policy do you feel . Is it perhaps the intention of Joseph to form a wholly owned African subsidiary to clean break the involvement of the Egyptian Government whatever that might be on the African assets.
I am really all at sea on this one. Do you feel and hope as I do that the January statement might result in a full disclosure .
Has Endeavour any connection with the drilling exploration company.
Apologies for all this but the only wrong question is the one not asked.
Regards Bob

Hi Elonex

A very sensible strategy which over a period of time will I am sure bear good returns for you.
Short term playing the market rarely works for the small private investor.

Very good luck for the future.

Bob

Better odds in Vegas. Was there in September and as always came home penniless.

Bob

AIM is in the hands of the nominated company brokers who set bid ask levels and who maintain sufficient liquidity for the market to operate. Most funds wont touch it unless aimed at New market entries. Casino Royale territory.

Sorry to hear of your bad experience. Look on it as payment for education which might help.

Bob