Member Info for bobbyaxelrod

Maybe some competition (or even a potential partner) for Tutivia

https://substack.com/home/post/p-152026045?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

https://okeiro.com/en

I have the same increasing cynical unease. However, one important thing to remember is the sale of Immotion did leave to a shareholder return event (although you’ll know better if this represented a good return or not)

HT2, that was my exact thought upon watching.

On THG/THG Ingenuity angle. Reading through THG chat board gives a sense of how poor the situation really is there (for sharehoders) given the CEO MM's actions and company set up, including demerger of Ingeuinity. Terrible from a governance perspective (similar to Martin's new outfit OPG). Hopefully Huddled improves in governance, but I don't think this can be expected based on company size and THG/OPG associations.

Thanks - same to you.

With Spectral AI, I see the FDA approval as a given and believe the market must have priced this in (although there may still be upside solely from approval). The potential upside here is absolutely enormous, and I've started turning my thoughts more to the downside. I believe their stated TAM will increase as DeepView is a new category product and will "create" additional use cases (e.g. frequent community imaging of burns/DFUs). I also get the sense that the company is being prepared to be sold following FDA approval, but not too sure on this one as FDA approval is a given.

When I say "a given" I mean 99% sure it will be approved, obviously it may not transpire that way. But so many factors make approval highly certain: its a device not a medication, no side effects, high historic rate of 501k acceptance, breakthrough designation, pre-submission meetings with FDA and BARDA so the application can be tailored to what is required, strong experimental evidence, etc...

How's your journey been as a shareholder? These things take time, and from my reading the guidance for FDA submission date has been pushed later a few times. The fact that it was previously AIM listed was a surprise to me.

Anyone still holding/interested in the stock here? I think this could be a very good set up right now...

Thinking more about the possibility of being acquired... Looking at THG (which seems to have been a very poor and is currently a very beaten up investment) and their acquisition history.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/THG_plc

Nutricircle and Boop Beauty both definitely fit very nicely with THG's typical acquisitions. We know Boop sells lots of THG beauty brand products. Nutricircle seems to struggle to get a significant offering from MyProtein. That said, there has been a small increase in NC stock breadth recently (from c150 to 170+ products), while BB and DD have both fallen (after significant increases) but remain at a higher level than previous. With the latter, we will have to see if accumulation of dead stock is an issue with future business updates.

Back to the potential acquisition. At present, to me, I would guess THG would want to buy only Boop Beauty and perhaps Huddled would allow this and use the cash to grow the other two rather than return money to shareholders, or maybe THG would simply buy all of Huddled giving a nice crystalisation event. Just pointless speculation on my part.

THG itself could be a good investment, with lots of embedded assets that they can sell to realise value not recognising in its current market price. Of course, they have no proven profitability and selling assets/juggling balance sheet means it remains not attractive to me. Would they buy Huddled/Boop while in this position? Maybe, maybe not.

Stalin123, when I use quotation marks to quote Martin it is to imply a healthy dose of cynism. You’re right on the points you make (perhaps not on the characterisation of my posts though - I try to be balanced and not too speculative/hidden-message seeking). All the best with your health, sorry to hear that

I'm not touting the stock in anyway here and agree with much of the sentiment. My "thesis" is continued growth across the 3 brands (top line with some "operational profitability" thrown in to reach cash flow positivity by end of this year) that culminates in a bumper Q4 2025 and subsequent share price appreciation. I think this thesis remains intact.

However, concerns re governance and the board remain. An argument could be made that this is "directionally" improving, with the addition of an institional investor for a significant holding and resultant dilution of the concert party.

Re the offering that being regular/predictable enough for consumers - I've thought this for a while. I think the THG deal and having consistent partnership with brands helps on this front, especially with Boop. And with a big gifting season coming up, I think Boop is well placed to benefit in a big way with its expanded fragrance offering. But even with Discount Dragon - they always have ketchup, coke, etc available so a regular offering is sort've there. We know returning customer mix is around 30-35%, perhaps higher when customer acquisition slows down, and so this is a positive. Due to continued investment and business changes, we probably won't have an idea of the stable returning customer mix until H2 next year.

Remember, according to the Chair in previous discussions, the freebies are there to "lead the customer down the AOV chain" and grow their basket size, whilst also attracting new customers.

Unfortunately the story will take time to play out. Website traffic for DD and NC seem to be stable, whereas Boop is growing. As far as we know Q2 had growth across all 3 brands. They have a new institution on board who is supportive to provide investment for working capital and to support the transition to THG Ingenuity. The transition is a partnership that will involve being able to sell stock on consignment ultimately reducing dead stock risk. So it feels to me that the business is improving and in a continually better position. We also know that historically they have not been demand constrained, just warheouse constrained, and that - although they've burnt cash - it has been catastrophic as compared to some growth stories...

For me, in 2026 I can see NC and DD both being ran in a "run-off" mode either cash neutral or at a small profit, with a continued push for Boop. I think the current valuation is acceptable for Boop (if anticipated growth this year materialises) alone.

All this said, this investment is very risky and needs to be managed accordingly.

Current market cap is just under £60m. 2 years left of California contract plus existing cash should equal significant cash balance in 2027 (relative to current market cap). Even if the California contract is not renewed, they still have continuing and dominant (for now and hopefully to continue) business in the UK. So future cash balance plus UK business should still be valued higher than it is now.

Of course there remains the possibility of a renewed California contract (why not given all the set up costs, personnel training and also existing consumer awareness), expansion across other US states, Australia/Canada/New Zealand expansion, renewed or increased UK business, corporate sector opportunities, etc. That said, I believe that Australia/Canada/New Zealand are likely already well served with Kooth-esque providers as these markets have lots of health tech companies already.

A lot depends on the quailty of management. Can they integrate AI to reduce cost base and improve margins? Can they expand to other areas? Can they allocate capital efficiently? For example, on the latter point - are they better off aiming to solidify their UK position (and continually improving their product) similar to Rightmove or Medica (radiology reporting business) and returning some cash via buybacks and then dividends whilst keeping an eye out for profitable and less capital-intensive expansion opportunities? Who knows.

Sorry to bring it back to that old presentation regarding Tutivia competition.

https://vericidx.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/VRCI-FY20-Results-1.pdf (slide 13)

I've had a brief look at the competitions' products. Can't really say anything other than Tutivia offers something different - it will take time to build the evidence of exactly what (several years).

More interestingly looking at market caps:

- Tutivia. Verici Dx £7m

- Kidney AlloSure. CareDx $631m

- Viracor Trac & Tru Graf. Eurofins euro13bn

- Prospera. Natera $22bn

Verici is really mixing it with whales.

Yes horsetrade2 - I noted that from recent trustpilot reviews. I'm not sure how much of it is linked to TNG Ingenuity versus relative poor DPD performance. Either way, perhaps they were able to get a similar deal with Royal Mail now they are shipping larger volumes.

I've also noticed that Nutricircle's range has started to slow again - I think there is a difficulties finding stock for this business, but it may be profitable due to high returning customer mix.

On the other hand - it seems Discount Dragon's stock breadth has expanded following on from a similar expansion in Boop. Hopefully this is a good sign (i.e. greater orders and greater possibility of new customers turning to returning with higher AOVs) versus a bad sign (i.e. increased dead stock risk).

Given the company's current low valuaton (call it c£1m if we account for cash) and likely slow progress, I wonder if they would be better off approaching a well capitalised and experienced partner for a full commercialisation licensing deal

Yes, on the first explanation - this seems likely given that Huddled has continued to grow across all brands with constraints due to capital, warehousing, etc.

So, moving onto the second. I think this could be possible. Who would buy this? Private Equity? THG, as an outnet for all their beauty brands? THG Ingenuity to integrate as am embedded fulfilment service? I can't see any other immediate buyers.

I also wouldn't be against an early sale provided it was at health premium on a maximal market valuation. I can see why Huddled - showing growth and being early stage - might be attractive to a buyer who believes they can unlock lots of value through increased scale. I can also imagine the price offering being attractive to both parties.

So moving on to valuation. I think £20-30m minimum based on current business (even acknowledging its lack of proven profitability), but if there is a strong Q3 and bumper Q4 maybe there is further upside.

Yep. Plus lots previous governance issues re Huddled that we've discussed before including related party transactions, concert party, acqusition of Discount Dragon that enriched directors, etc.

I don't think we can read anything into the appointment of Martin to OPG Ventures, especially with the new management structure in place at Huddled (i.e. now a CEO and chairman combination, with Martin now the latter)... however, the appointment appears to have almost no strategic value to Huddled. It would have been nice if it made sense in some way!

Stalin123, when you say "just like immo" - what do you mean? I'm interested to know and it will save me some digging!

A very left-field appointment. I'm also familiar with OPG Ventures - previously held shares a while ago - and I don't think it's the best outfit to join, especially from a governance perspective and I don't think Martin will be going in to clean up the operations!

Cheers. We will see what rest of the year brings. I think this is a good investment purely on the basis of Tutivia alone. It is somewhat disappointing that the immediate plan with the cash raised is to simply hire 2 more sales staff in America, but the CEO did say in the Vox markets interview that they envisage a salesforce of around 15 people in the longer term. It speaks to a slower approach to roll out while they wait for more clinical evidence accumulation. She did say that a publication (i.e. a published scientific paper in a peer-reviewed journal) was "in the offing", but that gives little insight into what stage, i.e. is the study being carried out still, results being analysed, paper being drafted, paper submitted for peer-review, etc. I think if it had been submitted for publication she would have said this, so I can't see a paper being published this year based on usual timescales, but who knows.

My other concern is around cash burn and whether management should be really much better on controlling costs whilst in this phase.

I've noted from the Trust Pilot reviews for the brands that Huddled are now using Royal Mail rather than DPD. In a response to one review, they state that this was because they were unhappy with DPD's service, but may also suggest they are basically up and running with THG Ingenuity.

Yes, I think a Q4 blow out is very likely. I'm guessing at some point marketing spend will increase in a big way in anticipation of Q4 - hopefully they've honed their strategy so the money is as wisely spent as possible. All 3 brands still have remarkably low brand penetration (just going of Instagram followers). I think Boop has the largest potential long term, but remains to be seen how big it can actually be.

Exactly, especially considering the enterprise value purchase price with all the post-raise cash on the balance sheet, I believe that this should be an attractive acquisition for many companies that could be done with pocket change. I even emailed a US company (in the renal space) I'm invested in asking them to look at buying Verici Dx (no reply).

Yes, lets see what H2 2025 brings and then hopefully H1 2026 there is a real "coming together". What's your view on Thermofisher situation? I haven't looked at this much.

On management criticism - agreed. The only point I'd make is it doesn't seem like the business has been historically undercapitalised and hence why management share some responsibility. The manner in which they recently raised cash with a long several month delay from the announcement definitely destroyed a lot of value. However, this led to me picking up shares c0.5p and then taking a further entitlement in the offering (I had some shares given to me through a holding in EKF, which I no longer hold). Time will tell, but the big positive is that reimbursement is in place removing the largest hurdle to its adoption,

Would recommend anyone interested to check these out. I've watched them (episode 3 is not worth watching and has only relevance to Tutivia's TAM not so much for Tutivia itself). The first give a better idea of Tutivia is being used and the BK virus case (episode 2) is quite eye opening. Some of the abstracts for presentations at the conference were related to what is being discussed in episode 2.

Re Verici Dx, I havn't got round to it yet, but I keep meaning to check out the competition properly.

https://vericidx.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/VRCI-FY20-Results-1.pdf

See Page 13 of this presentation. If anyone has any knowledge related to competition or other solutions available/in development I will be very interested to hear more.

I think Verici Dx have something great here, but it remains uncertain whether this will work as an investment for me. It really needs a more concentrated and strategic push, but it takes time to build the clinical evidence. If they can show continued recurring orders with some growth in test orders in H2 that is the minimum I need to see. One key thing - as mentioned on here - is serial testing using Tutivia appears likely, but this may lead to price pressure (fair enough). It's difficult to see how, eventually, clinicians can justify not using Tutivia (especially in certain instances like BK virus but also more generally) when it is widely available and seems to have information value along with management implications (as well as helping to reduce costs).

I am also really suprised that there have been no acquisition attempts for something that is in commercialisation stage with US reimbursement in place and seemingly has no competition and represents an additional cost that is a fraction of the transplant cost (and possibly helps prevent future repeat transplantations).

There is also the ghost of future dilution that seems inevitable. I think their intention is to push the company, show good results, and raise at a much higher share price (if possible) by H2 next year - this will also dampen any share price appreciation. The leadership of the company really do feel like placeholders and amatuerish in view of the opportunity at their finger tips - but the company is likely to small to attract a CEO with sufficient gusto and commercialisation expertise to push this along.

How is no one else interested in just buying the company for themselves and getting rid of the management and using their own cost base to push Tutivia? It would immediately be more valuable if they did that. Makes me wonder about whether the product is the real deal or not.

I think fragrances are much more attainable than Golf equipment, luxury watches and supercar! You can buy all these perfumes/aftershaves from Boots, Supermarkets, non-luxury high street retail firms, etc. I don’t think the consumer base of Creed is closely equivalent to that of the other items mentioned.

Even top end fragrances are big sellers with wide audiences. I think Boop might have a massive Q4 from selling fragrances which are to be gifted.

On the “all in”, we have no idea of the stock breadth, cost price or purchase model (e.g. consignment).